The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 179378 times)
Devout Centrist
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« Reply #825 on: February 25, 2017, 01:07:19 PM »

Gallup:
41(-2)
53(+1)
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #826 on: February 25, 2017, 01:20:06 PM »

Damn son
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hopper
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« Reply #827 on: February 25, 2017, 03:04:18 PM »

How does one win national elections when 49% of the country "disapproves strongly" of your president?
Cause it was 49% in the right areas

Rural Michigan. Rural Wisconsin. Rural Pennsylvania.
Macomb County, Michigan is not rural its part of the Detroit Burbs'. I'm not sure  Saginaw County is part of the Detroit Burb's because it looks a little far from Detroit but its far from the UP as well. Romney did good in the UP but he didn't win the state in 2012 and he lost Macomb and Saginaw to Obama and Trump won those 2 counties.
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hopper
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« Reply #828 on: February 25, 2017, 03:08:43 PM »

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 16-19:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e4-dc17-a57a-f6fc0d810002
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e2-d5b6-a35f-fef795640001

approve 49%
disapprove 44%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +4
Northeast: -2
South: +11
West: -3

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +14
blacks: -56
Hispanics: +4

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +2
$50-100k: +10
over $100k: +4

6% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

That has to a typo on your part or a typo on  "Morning Consult Polling"(s) part because there is no way Trump is at +4 approval with Hispanics. His disapproval with Hispanics are in the negative mid 40-low 50's with Hispanics in other polls on here.
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hopper
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« Reply #829 on: February 25, 2017, 03:21:05 PM »

Three years away from the start of the real campaigning of the 2020 Presidential election I can make the earliest possible prediction of its results.

Note that I make some assumptions.

First, that the 2020 election will be free and fair.  

Anything else (1) isn't interesting, (2) is a violation of over 200 years of precedent, or (3) indicates that the comparative few who own the assets and grab the income either have gained total power or have lost everything in a revolution or apocalyptic war.

Second, that American political culture does not change profoundly in the meantime.  

Ethnic divides and religious patterns remain much the same and have much the same general orientation. There is no trend toward fundamentalist religion or toward irreligion that would change voting patters. We haven't seen that since the late 1970s  and I don't expect to see that now.

Third, that the states change in their voting behavior only due to demographic change

The Hispanic and Asian populations are growing rapidly and making a bigger part of the electorate while black and white populations become lesser shares.

Fourth, approval-disapproval differentials remain much the same as they are now.

That assumes that President Trump does not endure even further losses of approval or make a miraculous recovery.  Could things go worse for him? Sure. Mass unrest. Economic meltdown. Military or diplomatic debacles. Scandals involving sex or financial turpitude.  I'm not saying that any one of those will happen, but I can't rule them out. If any of these happen, then Donald Trump might not even run for re-election, in which case all bets are off.  

Fifth, that President Trump will run for election.

He will not die, become incapacitated, resign, or be impeached whether by Congress or a military junta. Crazy as things are now I can't even rule out a military coup. To be sure, if he dislikes the Presidency he might choose not to run while expressing some noble cause for not seeking a second term, as did LBJ.

Sixth, that third parties will not greatly shape the election.

If the liberal side splits significantly, then President Trump wins. If some conservative-leaning nominee gets 10% or more of the vote, then Trump loses 'bigly'.

>>>>I have enough approval and favorability ratings of states to create a skeleton of a likely 2020 Presidential election. There are states (Colorado, Georgia, Ohio, and Wisconsin) for which I have nothing so far, for which I would like some data.

So add 6% to the most recent number for approval or favorability (where I had both favorability and approval, they were basically the same -- I prefer approval) to get the likely share of the vote in any state in the upcoming election. Nate Silver has a model for elected (not appointed) Governors and Senators that suggests that they normally lose support once they start legislating or governing because they can't please everyone who voted for them, but that they typically gain about 6% of the vote from an approval rating at the beginning of a campaign season by campaigning. That's the 'average' Governor or Senator running against the 'average' challenger. It worked well with Obama, whose approval ratings were in the mid 40s early in 2016, and he barely got re-elected by the popular vote. If it applies to Senators and Governors, then why not to the President?

So here are the data. I normed some unflattering polls for Trump in Florida and North Carolina to the national average , but other than that I simply took the latest numbers. Here is the raw data:

 NY - 31 MA - 25  NJ - 36 AZ - 39 FL - 34 (raise to 40) NC- 36 (raise to 40) MI-40 WV - 58 CA -34 NH - 43 VA - 38 IA - 42 AR - 60 TX - 46 VA -32 TN - 51 MD -29 PA - 32 SC - 44

Add 6 to the approval rating, and you get the following map:

      


white -- 49-51% for Trump (a virtual tie)

Trump wins:

60% or more
55-59.9%
51.0-54.9%


Trump loses, getting :

40% or less
40-44.9%
45-48.9%



Foreign-born Asian Women don't have the same fertility rates as Foreign-born Hispanic Women do. Foreign-Born Hispanic Women give birth to an average of 3 kids where as other women(White, Asian, Black, and US Born Hispanic Women) give birth to an average of 2 kids. I think US-Born Hispanic Women their fertility rates were 3 kids before the late 2000's recession if I am correct before the housing bubble burst and their husbands or boyfriends job rates in the construction industry declined. Most Asian population growth is via immigration from East Asia.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #830 on: February 25, 2017, 04:18:19 PM »

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 16-19:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e4-dc17-a57a-f6fc0d810002
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e2-d5b6-a35f-fef795640001

approve 49%
disapprove 44%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +4
Northeast: -2
South: +11
West: -3

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +14
blacks: -56
Hispanics: +4

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +2
$50-100k: +10
over $100k: +4

6% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

That has to a typo on your part or a typo on  "Morning Consult Polling"(s) part because there is no way Trump is at +4 approval with Hispanics. His disapproval with Hispanics are in the negative mid 40-low 50's with Hispanics in other polls on here.

Their writeup has the following breakdown for Hispanics:

strongly approve 22%
somewhat approve 28%
somewhat disapprove 13%
strongly disapprove 33%

So the totals are:
approve 50%
disapprove 46%

Their Hispanic sample is 180 people so MoE is of course quite large.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #831 on: February 26, 2017, 09:11:48 AM »

NBC/WSJ:
Approval: 44%
Disapproval: 48%

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-s-job-approval-stands-just-44-percent-partisan-splits-n725621
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #832 on: February 26, 2017, 10:28:42 AM »






“President Trump implemented a temporary travel ban for people from seven countries including Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.  This ban would last for three or four months for people from those countries and indefinitely for refugees from Syria until enhanced vetting procedures could be put into place.  This ban was struck down by the federal courts and the existing vetting process that was being used before President Trump’s travel ban remains in place.

Do you think a temporary ban from these seven countries…”

is necessary 44%
is unnecessary 45%
don’t know enough to have an opinion yet 10%
not sure 1%
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Ronnie
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« Reply #833 on: February 26, 2017, 01:16:15 PM »

Today's Gallup:

Approve 41% (nc)
Disapprove 54% (+1)
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Maxwell
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« Reply #834 on: February 26, 2017, 01:17:58 PM »


that poll also has congressional approval rating at 29%, about 20 points higher than you usually see it.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #835 on: February 26, 2017, 01:22:50 PM »


That's because Republicans are understandably happier about things than usual.
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Beet
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« Reply #836 on: February 26, 2017, 01:28:06 PM »


That's because Republicans are understandably happier about things than usual.

The poll also shows that the percentage of people saying the system is rigged against them flipped to negative for the first time in over a decade. It used to be a statistic used by Bernie types to argue against neoliberalism. Kind of makes you wonder that some of those people were just Republicans unhappy about Obama.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #837 on: February 26, 2017, 02:35:18 PM »


That's because Republicans are understandably happier about things than usual.

The poll also shows that the percentage of people saying the system is rigged against them flipped to negative for the first time in over a decade. It used to be a statistic used by Bernie types to argue against neoliberalism. Kind of makes you wonder that some of those people were just Republicans unhappy about Obama.

I think the Bernie types have mistaken a lot of the anti-establishment sentiment of the white working class as animated by opposition to neoliberalism, when in reality it has been anti-cosmopolitanism.
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windjammer
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« Reply #838 on: February 27, 2017, 06:49:15 AM »


That's because Republicans are understandably happier about things than usual.

The poll also shows that the percentage of people saying the system is rigged against them flipped to negative for the first time in over a decade. It used to be a statistic used by Bernie types to argue against neoliberalism. Kind of makes you wonder that some of those people were just Republicans unhappy about Obama.

I think the Bernie types have mistaken a lot of the anti-establishment sentiment of the white working class as animated by opposition to neoliberalism, when in reality it has been anti-cosmopolitanism.
^^^^^
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Person Man
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« Reply #839 on: February 27, 2017, 07:26:23 AM »


That's because Republicans are understandably happier about things than usual.

The poll also shows that the percentage of people saying the system is rigged against them flipped to negative for the first time in over a decade. It used to be a statistic used by Bernie types to argue against neoliberalism. Kind of makes you wonder that some of those people were just Republicans unhappy about Obama.

I think the Bernie types have mistaken a lot of the anti-establishment sentiment of the white working class as animated by opposition to neoliberalism, when in reality it has been anti-cosmopolitanism.
^^^^^

And about as "deplorable" as Bernie people are "against capitalism". They all lie on a spectrum from just thinking they are not ready to fully embrace what they think is strange or new to honest hatred of anyone and any thing they that they don't consider White, Christian, or American.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #840 on: February 27, 2017, 01:44:17 PM »

Gallup: 42 (+1)
           54 (nc)
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KingSweden
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« Reply #841 on: February 27, 2017, 03:17:26 PM »


That's because Republicans are understandably happier about things than usual.

The poll also shows that the percentage of people saying the system is rigged against them flipped to negative for the first time in over a decade. It used to be a statistic used by Bernie types to argue against neoliberalism. Kind of makes you wonder that some of those people were just Republicans unhappy about Obama.

I think the Bernie types have mistaken a lot of the anti-establishment sentiment of the white working class as animated by opposition to neoliberalism, when in reality it has been anti-cosmopolitanism.

This times a billion zillion trillion
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JA
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« Reply #842 on: February 27, 2017, 03:59:22 PM »

https://buffalonews.com/2017/02/27/trump-slides-cuomo-rises-new-poll-among-new-yorkers/

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #843 on: February 27, 2017, 04:54:29 PM »
« Edited: February 28, 2017, 12:19:41 PM by pbrower2a »

New York State, Siena. The state in which Donald Trump is best known doesn't like how he is doing. His favorability has slipped to 36% for Siena (but that is one category higher than the poll most recently been using), but it is still 36-59, 17% underwater. More significantly,
 
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See more at: https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/voters-give-cuomo-his-best-favorability-job-performance-ratings-in-more-tha#sthash.rlflo57P.dpuf  

Don't be surprised if some new state polls come in tomorrow and Wednesday.

Favorability:




Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:



Not likely useful until March.



Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.




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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #844 on: February 27, 2017, 05:05:16 PM »

New York State, Siena. The state in which Donald Trump is best known doesn't like how he is doing. His favorability has slipped to 36% for Siena (but that is one category higher than the poll most recently been using), but it is still 36-59, 17% underwater. More significantly,
 
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See more at: https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/voters-give-cuomo-his-best-favorability-job-performance-ratings-in-more-tha#sthash.rlflo57P.dpuf 

Don't be surprised if some new state polls come in tomorrow and Wednesday.

Favorability:




Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:



Not likely useful until March.

March begins in about seven hours on the East Coast.

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.




[/quote]
Who are these people who disapprove of but have favorable opinion of trump?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #845 on: February 28, 2017, 01:40:20 AM »
« Edited: February 28, 2017, 01:52:49 AM by pbrower2a »

On the economy: it is still the Obama economy, or the Federal Reserve Bank really manages it.

President Trump has yet to force economic reforms likely to inflict pain on the masses so that the super-rich can get even more -- like a national "Right-to-Work" (for much less, as union officials call it), abolition of the minimum wage laws, tax shifts, and destruction of the welfare system.  He has yet to succeed at forming an economic bubble analogous to the real estate mess of fifteen years ago.

We can pay more attention to approval than to favorability. Approval generally means recognition of the merits or demerits of official performance. It is possible to like someone who is hurting one, as in certain stages of an abusive relationship.  But that usually sours fast.

What is telling? New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut* residents likely know Donald Trump the person far better than any other Americans. If his approval rating in New York state is 29%,  and this is significantly lower than is normal for Republican Presidents in New York, then we can only imagine what direction his support will take in such states as Georgia*, Minnesota*, Ohio*, and Wisconsin* and will take over time. 

*states for which I have no polling data.

Can anyone come up with polling data for President Trump in New Jersey and New York from the first term of President George W. Bush? 
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #846 on: February 28, 2017, 12:23:59 PM »

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday:

50% approve
50% disapprove.

34% who Strongly Approve
41% who Strongly Disapprove.

This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -7.

Even Ras is about to go under? Good.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #847 on: February 28, 2017, 01:36:30 PM »

Gallup:

Approve: 42% (nc)
Disapprove: 54% (nc)
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henster
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« Reply #848 on: February 28, 2017, 01:59:53 PM »

He can hold over his base for so long with media attacks and nativist immigration rhetoric before they get restless. I have read about a factory in IN shutting down and jobs shipped to Mexico and nothing from Trump and coal plant closing in OH/AZ. At some point parts of his base will realize he is not delivering for them.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #849 on: February 28, 2017, 02:05:50 PM »

Lee Iaccocca, a far smarter and more astute business executive than Donald Trump, recognized that although he had saved Chrysler from bankruptcy in the 1980s he did not have as broad a knowledge as was necessary for being President. Just because he had worked wonders in business did not mean that he could do the same in something far more complicated. Profit-and-loss creates simple criteria of success and failure in business.

The Professor of Constitutional Law is looking all the better every day.
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