The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Person Man]

Gallup:

43% (nc)
51% (nc)

It doesn't seem like his congressional address gave him much of a bounce.

3/4 update:
Gallup:

43% (nc)
51% (nc)

Def no speech bounce... but no drop from Sessions either, yet.

Evidence that he is preaching to the choir.

Or that everyone is. My guess is that everyone is just preaching to the choir. I could well be that Trump is stuck between 39 and 45 (slightly unpopular), much like he was during the election. The only way he gets into the 45-50 range is if we all the sudden have some YUGGE economic miracle. The only way he gets to be truly popular by any reasonable imagination is that he gets his chance to become America's Blue Line the way W did between 9/11 and there all the sudden being thousands of dead soldiers when barely 100 died in the actual "war"  and there being hundreds of thousands of dead civilians.

The only way he becomes unpopular enough to be easy to beat or easy to contain is that we have recession.

[hopper]

On the economy: it is still the Obama economy, or the Federal Reserve Bank really manages it.

President Trump has yet to force economic reforms likely to inflict pain on the masses so that the super-rich can get even more -- like a national "Right-to-Work" (for much less, as union officials call it), abolition of the minimum wage laws, tax shifts, and destruction of the welfare system.  He has yet to succeed at forming an economic bubble analogous to the real estate mess of fifteen years ago.

We can pay more attention to approval than to favorability. Approval generally means recognition of the merits or demerits of official performance. It is possible to like someone who is hurting one, as in certain stages of an abusive relationship.  But that usually sours fast.

What is telling? New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut* residents likely know Donald Trump the person far better than any other Americans. If his approval rating in New York state is 29%,  and this is significantly lower than is normal for Republican Presidents in New York, then we can only imagine what direction his support will take in such states as Georgia*, Minnesota*, Ohio*, and Wisconsin* and will take over time. 

*states for which I have no polling data.

Can anyone come up with polling data for President Trump in New Jersey and New York from the first term of President George W. Bush? 

Yeah but Dem Presidential Candidates have carried NY since the 1988 Presidential Election. Also Connecticut and New Jersey have been carried by Dem Presidential Candidates since the 1992 Presidential Election. I do agree though New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut Residents know of Trump pretty well.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup: 43(nc)/50(-1)

[Tender Branson]

FL (University of North Florida, 973 RV)

44% approve
51% disapprove

Link

US (CNN, 1.025 adults)

45% approve
52% disapprove

Link

[I Won - Get Over It]

CNN/ORC, 1,025 adult Americans, March 1-4, 2017
Job Approval
45(+1)
52(-1)

men: +5
women: -18
white: +7
non-white: -35

white / no college: +30
white / college degree: -20


Favorability            Donald Trump              Mike Pence
March 1-4, 2017            45%/53%          47%/37%
January 12-15, 2017     44%/53%           40%/37%
November 17-20, 2016   47%/50%          43%/38%
October 20-23, 2016      36%/61%              38%/30%

edition.cnn.com/2017/03/06/politics/trump-approval-rating-russia-poll/index.html
i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/03/05/rel4a.-.trump,.russia.pdf

[JA]

That Whites with a college degree number though.

[pbrower2a]

FL (University of North Florida, 973 RV)

44% approve
51% disapprove

Link

US (CNN, 1.025 adults)

45% approve
52% disapprove

Link

Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Rasmussen 3/1 - 3/5, 1500 LV   

52(-1)/48(+1)

[I Won - Get Over It]

Gallup, 1,500 A:
 
44(+1)/50(-)

[Classic Conservative]

Monmouth:

Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 46%
https://mobile.twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/838812631788060673

[Ronnie]

It seems like his approval is on a bit of an upswing, for whatever reason.  Still, I find it striking that 41% strongly disapprove of him, according to the CNN poll.  He must have the lowest ceiling of any president since polling began.

[Gass3268]

Monmouth:

Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 46%
https://mobile.twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/838812631788060673

Trump actually does worse in swing/close counties than he does nationwide 41/46.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Monmouth:

Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 46%

The most interesting part is

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It is not statistically significant, but stil astonishing

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s the Monmouth poll:

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_030617/

It’s 43/46% among adults and 44/46% among registered voters.

men: +9
women: -17
whites: +20
non-whites: -50
income less than $50k: -11
income $50-100k: +6
income over $100k: -4

[Classic Conservative]

Florida:
Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 44%
http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/floridians-mostly-feeling-optimistic-heading-age-trump

[I Won - Get Over It]

IBD/TIPP   2/24 - 3/4, 909 A

41(-1)/53(+5) compared to 1/27 - 2/2

investors.com/politics/ibdtipp-poll-presidential-approval-direction-of-country/

[Dr. Arch]

IBD/TIPP   2/24 - 3/4, 909 A

41(-1)/53(+5) compared to 1/27 - 2/2

investors.com/politics/ibdtipp-poll-presidential-approval-direction-of-country/

That's a big swing.

[Gass3268]

Florida:
Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 44%
http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/floridians-mostly-feeling-optimistic-heading-age-trump

This is from Florida Chamber Political Institute, FYI.

[Ronnie]

Here's a paragraph about the IBD/TIPP poll I thought was note-worthy:

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It's kind of bizarre that they detected a drastic change in his popularity after the speech, since we didn't see that in any other poll.  Hmm...

[pbrower2a]

Florida:
Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 44%
http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/floridians-mostly-feeling-optimistic-heading-age-trump

This is from Florida Chamber Political Institute, FYI.

So for the first time we have a poll that must be rejected because it comes from a union, trade association, political campaign, or advocacy group.

[JA]

http://wlns.com/2017/03/06/skubick-poll-shows-trump-support-base-eroding-in-michigan/

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[I Won - Get Over It]

Rasmussen 3/2 - 3/6, 1500 LV  

51(-1)/49(+1)

[Hindsight was 2020]

http://wlns.com/2017/03/06/skubick-poll-shows-trump-support-base-eroding-in-michigan/

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Not shocking, he barely won the state an he won solely around TPP so the fact he is running more on his Wall an ban was going to lose Michigan the first.

[pbrower2a]

This is more than ordinary loss of support. This does not translate into polling, but all in all I expect people to scratch their heads at 9PM EST on November 2, 2020 as Michigan is a quick call for the Democratic nominee for President and wonder how Donald Trump could have won the state in 2016.

I doubt that the discriminatory behavior against Muslim travelers does well for President Trump.  Yes, Dearborn is a no-go zone -- if you are a drunk, addict, pimp, or prostitute wandering in from Detroit.  I can live with that sort of 'no-go zone'.

[jdk]

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Not shocking, he barely won the state an he won solely around TPP so the fact he is running more on his Wall an ban was going to lose Michigan the first.

I also wonder how much of an impact the Betsy Devos appointment and the Great Lakes program cuts has to do with it