The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
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  The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 180292 times)
heatcharger
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« Reply #950 on: March 13, 2017, 12:22:19 PM »

Trump crashes back down to 42/51 in Gallup.
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I Won - Get Over It
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« Reply #951 on: March 13, 2017, 01:04:28 PM »

Gallup, 3/9- 3/11   1500 A

Approve      45% (+1)
Disapprove  49% (---)


Gallup, 3/10- 3/12   1500 A

Approve      42% (-3)
Disapprove  51% (+2)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #952 on: March 13, 2017, 02:37:13 PM »

At this point I project that as an average campaigner for re-election he would lose about 52-48 against the average challenger even if the economy doesn't go into the tank, no scandal erupts, and no military or diplomatic calamity happens.
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I Won - Get Over It
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« Reply #953 on: March 14, 2017, 09:17:07 AM »

Rasmussen 3/8 - 3/12, 1500 LV  

Approve      47% ( -1)
Disapprove  53% (+1)

Strongly:
Approve      31% (-1)
Disapprove  42% (-1)

Rasmussen shows -6 vs Gallup -4 Cheesy

Rasmussen 3/9 - 3/13, 1500 LV  

Approve      46% (-1)
Disapprove  53% (--)

Strongly:
Approve      30% (-1)
Disapprove  43% (+1)
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heatcharger
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« Reply #954 on: March 14, 2017, 09:31:58 AM »

New PPP poll of WI-01 (Paul Ryan's district):

Trump:

50% Favorable
47% Unfavorable

Ryan:

49% Favorable
44% Unfavorable

This is a district Trump won by 10%.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #955 on: March 14, 2017, 09:40:34 AM »

New PPP poll of WI-01 (Paul Ryan's district):

Trump:

50% Favorable
47% Unfavorable

Ryan:

49% Favorable
44% Unfavorable

This is a district Trump won by 10%.

Terribly unflattering. If this district expresses a general shift of 5% the vote in Wisconsin, then a state that went for him by less than 1% would be a bare loss for him if nothing really changes before 2020. Should the economy tank or the American good fortune (having Obama as President might have made that possible for eight years) of not having military or diplomatic calamities come to an abrupt and shocking end, then the President could be facing a landslide loss in a re-election bid.

This and extant polls of Michigan and Pennsylvania suggest that if the 2016 election were held again, Trump would lose.  Support for the rest of the Trump agenda also looks weak even in this district.

Paul Ryan looks as if he would squeak by in a re-election bid. But that bodes ill for many other incumbent Republicans in the House.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #956 on: March 14, 2017, 09:47:31 AM »

New PPP poll of WI-01 (Paul Ryan's district):

Trump:

50% Favorable
47% Unfavorable

Ryan:

49% Favorable
44% Unfavorable

This is a district Trump won by 10%.
It's a Democratic Internal, for an anti-Ryan PAC.
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I Won - Get Over It
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« Reply #957 on: March 14, 2017, 09:51:51 AM »

New PPP poll of WI-01 (Paul Ryan's district):

Trump:

50% Favorable
47% Unfavorable

Ryan:

49% Favorable
44% Unfavorable

This is a district Trump won by 10%.
Trump got 52%.
MOE of this poll is about 4%
PPP was AWFUL during the election. For instance they had Clinton +7 in WI...
It is not even a public poll.

Just saying.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #958 on: March 14, 2017, 10:08:25 AM »

New PPP poll of WI-01 (Paul Ryan's district):

Trump:

50% Favorable
47% Unfavorable

Ryan:

49% Favorable
44% Unfavorable

This is a district Trump won by 10%.
It's a Democratic Internal, for an anti-Ryan PAC.

Even if so it says some things. If things were all peachy and rosy for House Republicans, then Donald Trump and Paul Ryan would have something like 60% approval or favorability in that district.

Some other questions:

Q5 Would you support or oppose an independent investigation into Russia’s involvement in the
2016 Presidential election?

(Support 50%, oppose 40%)

Q6 Do you support or oppose taking away funding for essential healthcare services like birth
control and cancer screenings at Planned Parenthood health centers in Racine, Kenosha,
and Delevan?

(Support 37%, oppose 55%)

Q7 Do you support or oppose Paul Ryan and the Republicans’ new health care bill, which would
cause millions to lose their health insurance?

(Support 37%, oppose 46%)


Q8 What comes closest to your view of what should happen with Medicare and Social Security: do you think we should protect and strengthen them, do you think we should expand them, or do you think we should cut them?

(Protect and strengthen 77%, expand 11%, cut 8%)

Q9 Some in Congress have proposed selling off national public lands, like national forests,
national monuments, and wildlife refuges. Do you support or oppose this proposal?

(Support 18%, oppose 77%)

Q10 The Trump Administration is proposing budget cuts to the Department of Interior and a hiring freeze, which could mean fewer park rangers, fewer wildland firefighters, limited wildlife
monitoring, and a limited ability to address the backlog of maintenance needs in America’s
National Parks.  Do you support or oppose these budget cuts?

(Support 35%, oppose 55%)

Q11 The Trump Administration is proposing a 97% decrease in money to clean up the Great
Lakes. Do you support or oppose these budget cuts?

(Support 25%, oppose 62%)

Q12 President Trump just ordered the EPA to rescind clean water rules, a move that would
reduce protections for 60% of the nation’s waters from toxic pollution and put the drinking
water of 117 million people at risk.  Do you support or oppose this?

(Support 28%, oppose 60%)

(Geographic reality on Q11: Paul Ryan's WI-01 lies on the shore of Lake Michigan).

In these questions we already see how Democrats can frame the 2018 midterm and 2020 general election. Speakers of the House rarely get defeated in re-election bids, and Paul Ryan is unlikely to be in danger of losing his House seat, but they can easily become House Minority Leaders when things go bad for their Party. Sure, this might be an internal poll by a Democratic group... but don't be surprised if the next poll of Wisconsin shows Donald Trump with something like a 40% approval rating.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #959 on: March 14, 2017, 10:33:52 AM »

New PPP poll of WI-01 (Paul Ryan's district):

Trump:

50% Favorable
47% Unfavorable

Ryan:

49% Favorable
44% Unfavorable

This is a district Trump won by 10%.
Trump got 52%.
MOE of this poll is about 4%
PPP was AWFUL during the election. For instance they had Clinton +7 in WI...
It is not even a public poll.

Just saying.

Hillary Clinton got only 39% of the vote in this district. That is a 12% margin. Paul Ryan will probably win this district in 2018 despite standing for some unpopular measure; that is how it is with someone who wields power in the House. After all, he might be good for getting a desirable highway or public-transportation project passed in his district under a Democratic administration in 2021 or so.

PPP missed the sudden swing for Demagogue Don; it quit polling on Wisconsin rather early. But current polls seem to be showing Americans just about everywhere recognizing his agenda (just create more profit as the collection of rent, and dismantle nearly 90 years of social progress to resuscitate 'dirty' industry) as a non-solution to their personal distress.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #960 on: March 14, 2017, 12:34:51 PM »

Trump continues to crash big league in Gallup. Down to 39/55 today. I suppose you could conclude that health care is taking a toll on his numbers.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #961 on: March 14, 2017, 12:39:54 PM »

Trump continues to crash big league in Gallup. Down to 39/55 today. I suppose you could conclude that health care is taking a toll on his numbers.
0.0
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #962 on: March 14, 2017, 01:03:39 PM »

Uh oh
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #963 on: March 14, 2017, 01:07:23 PM »

Trump continues to crash big league in Gallup. Down to 39/55 today. I suppose you could conclude that health Trumpcare is taking a toll on his numbers.

FTFY. Let's drive it home. Wink
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #964 on: March 14, 2017, 01:23:16 PM »

Trump continues to crash big league in Gallup. Down to 39/55 today. I suppose you could conclude that health care is taking a toll on his numbers.

People are starting to notice they're getting screwed by Trump, huh?
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #965 on: March 14, 2017, 01:24:32 PM »

Trump continues to crash big league in Gallup. Down to 39/55 today. I suppose you could conclude that health care is taking a toll on his numbers.

Has he been under 40 on Gallup before? I don't recall but at a glance only see him at 40. Anyway, YUGE two-day shift given that Gallup is a three-day tracking poll.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #966 on: March 14, 2017, 01:28:54 PM »
« Edited: March 14, 2017, 01:58:20 PM by 0% Approval Rating »

Trump continues to crash big league in Gallup. Down to 39/55 today. I suppose you could conclude that health care is taking a toll on his numbers.

Has he been under 40 on Gallup before? I don't recall but at a glance only see him at 40.

He was at 38% on 2/16.

This was one day after Andy Puzder withdrew as Labor Secretary nominee, three days after the resignation of Michael Flynn and seven days after the Ninth Circuit upheld Washington v. Trump.

This is different now, however. Voters could be personally affected by government policy in a negative manner and everybody knows it. Hence it's the sharpest drop in a two-day time span so far.
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I Won - Get Over It
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« Reply #967 on: March 14, 2017, 04:15:50 PM »

Gallup, 3/10- 3/12   1500 A

Approve      42% (-3)
Disapprove  51% (+2)


Gallup, 3/11- 3/13   1500 A

Approve      39% (-3)
Disapprove  55% (+4)

Wow! Trump's second worst numbers.
As I said Trump won't win without Universal Healthcare/fix Obamacare.
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I Won - Get Over It
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« Reply #968 on: March 14, 2017, 04:36:57 PM »

Ipsos, 3/7 - 3/9, compared to 2/28-3/4   

1629 A http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2
Approve      49% (+4)
Disapprove 45%  (-3)

1394 RV http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/PD1:1
Approve      51% (+4)
Disapprove 45%  (-3)

482 LV&RV http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/PD1:1,LIKELY:1
Approve      50% (+3)
Disapprove 46%  (-2)


Ipsos, 3/9 - 3/13, compared to 3/7 - 3/9   

1747 A http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/
Approve      47% (-2)
Disapprove  48% (+3)

1492 RV http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/PD1:1
Approve      49% (-2)
Disapprove  48% (+3)

535 LV&RV http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/PD1:1,LIKELY:1
Approve      48% (-2)
Disapprove  51% (+5)


This is probably just an outlier just like the 45-49 number earlier this week was. Real number is probably aound net negative high single digits.
The numbers themselves are probably an outlier. The negative trend is not.
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hopper
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« Reply #969 on: March 14, 2017, 06:58:12 PM »

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 16-19:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e4-dc17-a57a-f6fc0d810002
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e2-d5b6-a35f-fef795640001

approve 49%
disapprove 44%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +4
Northeast: -2
South: +11
West: -3

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +14
blacks: -56
Hispanics: +4

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +2
$50-100k: +10
over $100k: +4

6% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

That has to a typo on your part or a typo on  "Morning Consult Polling"(s) part because there is no way Trump is at +4 approval with Hispanics. His disapproval with Hispanics are in the negative mid 40-low 50's with Hispanics in other polls on here.

Their writeup has the following breakdown for Hispanics:

strongly approve 22%
somewhat approve 28%
somewhat disapprove 13%
strongly disapprove 33%

So the totals are:
approve 50%
disapprove 46%

Their Hispanic sample is 180 people so MoE is of course quite large.

Trump is at 22% approval with Hispanic according to Gallup which came out with a breakdown of Trumps approval numbers by demographic group in the past day or two.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #970 on: March 14, 2017, 07:12:38 PM »

This is probably just an outlier just like the 45-49 number earlier this week was. Real number is probably aound net negative high single digits.

Middle single digits.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #971 on: March 14, 2017, 10:37:52 PM »

This is probably just an outlier just like the 45-49 number earlier this week was. Real number is probably aound net negative high single digits.

Middle single digits.

PPP hasn't polled approval ratings of rattlesnakes yet.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #972 on: March 15, 2017, 08:09:46 AM »

A legit PPP national poll of registered voters: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_31517.pdf

Approve 43% (-2)
Disapprove 50% (+2)

The AHCA is anything but popular as well, polling at 24/49.
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« Reply #973 on: March 15, 2017, 08:27:14 AM »

The AHCA is anything but popular as well, polling at 24/49.

Tom Cotton was right... if AHCA passes like that the GOP is going to lose the House.
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Person Man
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« Reply #974 on: March 15, 2017, 09:27:33 AM »

The AHCA is anything but popular as well, polling at 24/49.

Tom Cotton was right... if AHCA passes like that the GOP is going to lose the House.

The big question then is if Democrats campaign on repealling the repeal or on for a new law or just push Clinton style reforms like HIPPA and SCHIP that arent enough.
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