The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[OneJ]

Just a quarter of young Americans have a favorable view of the Republican Party, and 6 in 10 have an unfavorable view. Majorities of young people across racial and ethnic lines hold negative views of the GOP.

The Democratic Party performs better, but views aren't overwhelmingly positive. Young people are more likely to have a favorable than an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party by a 47 percent to 36 percent margin. But just 14 percent say they have a strongly favorable view of the Democrats.

Views of the Democratic Party are most favorable among young people of color. Roughly 6 in 10 blacks, Asians and Latinos hold positive views of the party. Young whites are somewhat more likely to have unfavorable than favorable views, 47 percent to 39 percent.

As for Trump, 8 in 10 young people think he is doing poorly in terms of the policies he's put forward and 7 in 10 have negative views of his presidential demeanor.

Results of the 2020 election will not be pretty for Donald Trump, at least among the youngest voters.  

But I thought Gen Z was all NEO NAZIS!1!/s

Yeah, I think Gen Z will only be slightly more Republican than Millennials, as in Trump will only lose them by 20 instead of 25. That alone combined with Silents and Boomers kicking the can is enough to reverse the 2016 map assuming Trump doesn't make inroads elsewhere, which he has shown no capability of doing seeing as he's pissed everyone who didn't vote for him off in one way or another

Pretty much this.

Also, why is Trump going down this time? Healthcare, accusations of President Obama, or something else?

[Ronnie]

But I thought Gen Z was all NEO NAZIS!1!/s

Yeah, I think Gen Z will only be slightly more Republican than Millennials, as in Trump will only lose them by 20 instead of 25. That alone combined with Silents and Boomers kicking the can is enough to reverse the 2016 map assuming Trump doesn't make inroads elsewhere, which he has shown no capability of doing seeing as he's pissed everyone who didn't vote for him off in one way or another

I think we have to be really careful to not wade into the "demographics are destiny" argument against Trump winning reelection.  His presently poor approval ratings show us that he probably hasn't been able to win over many people who didn't vote for him thus far, but even if they remain mediocre, they still aren't determinant of his support levels four years from now.  In my opinion, that factor depends on whether people think the alternative is better.  If Democrats put up another weak nominee, young people might continue to stay home, or disproportionately wage protest votes for third party candidates.

Pretty much this.

Also, why is Trump going down drastically this time? Healthcare, accusations of President Obama, or something else?

His approvals have not gone down drastically.  If you look at the RCP average chart, you would see that they have actually been incredibly stable, fluctuating between -5 and -6, give or take, since his election.

[kyc0705]

Just a quarter of young Americans have a favorable view of the Republican Party, and 6 in 10 have an unfavorable view. Majorities of young people across racial and ethnic lines hold negative views of the GOP.

The Democratic Party performs better, but views aren't overwhelmingly positive. Young people are more likely to have a favorable than an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party by a 47 percent to 36 percent margin. But just 14 percent say they have a strongly favorable view of the Democrats.

Views of the Democratic Party are most favorable among young people of color. Roughly 6 in 10 blacks, Asians and Latinos hold positive views of the party. Young whites are somewhat more likely to have unfavorable than favorable views, 47 percent to 39 percent.

As for Trump, 8 in 10 young people think he is doing poorly in terms of the policies he's put forward and 7 in 10 have negative views of his presidential demeanor.

Listen, I'll be eligible to vote in 2020, and I'm sure not going to vote for Trump, but I have no idea what an "illegitimate president" is. Calling someone that wasn't even a plausible argument on the first few episodes of Designated Survivor.

[OneJ]

But I thought Gen Z was all NEO NAZIS!1!/s

Yeah, I think Gen Z will only be slightly more Republican than Millennials, as in Trump will only lose them by 20 instead of 25. That alone combined with Silents and Boomers kicking the can is enough to reverse the 2016 map assuming Trump doesn't make inroads elsewhere, which he has shown no capability of doing seeing as he's pissed everyone who didn't vote for him off in one way or another

I think we have to be really careful to not wade into the "demographics are destiny" argument against Trump winning reelection.  His presently poor approval ratings show us that he probably hasn't been able to win over many people who didn't vote for him thus far, but even if they remain mediocre, they still aren't determinant of his support levels four years from now.  In my opinion, that factor depends on whether people think the alternative is better.  If Democrats put up another weak nominee, young people might continue to stay home, or disproportionately wage protest votes for third party candidates.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

They have not gone down drastically.  If you look at the RCP average since Trump's election, you would see that they are actually incredibly stable, fluctuating between -5 and -6, give or take.

Well not drastically.

[Holmes]

Gen Z will be more non-white than Millennials fwiw.

[pbrower2a]

President Trump isn't winning acceptance as a good and effective President from those who voted for Hillary Clinton. Grudging acceptance of him as President? Sure. Lots of people by now must have the misconception that his middle name begins with the letter F by now -- and it doesn't stand for Francis, Franklin, Frederick, or Felix.  Or even "Fido".  He has done little to build trust. He's still waging a grudge against someone who can never be President again.

It is below his vote, and at this stage he will need miracles just to avoid losing his three closest wins of 2016 -- Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin -- in 2020. That's before I even discuss Florida, Iowa, and North Carolina.

Americans wondered what it would be like to have a non-politician as President, and they are finding out.

[Blackacre]

It's worth noting that according to 538, Trump is more unpopular now than he has ever been.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Americans wondered what it would be like to have a non-politician as President, and they are finding out.

That's doing non-politicians a bit of an injustice, since Donald Trump is a special kind of non-politicianperson. I assume that someone like Bill Gates for instance would have made a significantly better president. Not that this is a particular hard task.

Still, Trump proves that is better to have a politician than a non-politician as president, since a previous political career can serve as sort of a vetting process. If Trump had been acting as a senator ten years ago as he's acting now, maybe he never would have gotten the Republican nomination. Or at least I hope so.

[Mr. Morden]

It's worth noting that according to 538, Trump is more unpopular now than he has ever been.

His job approval is worse than it's been since his inauguration, but his favorability is better than it was during the campaign (including on election day):

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating

[Person Man]

President Trump isn't winning acceptance as a good and effective President from those who voted for Hillary Clinton. Grudging acceptance of him as President? Sure. Lots of people by now must have the misconception that his middle name begins with the letter F by now -- and it doesn't stand for Francis, Franklin, Frederick, or Felix.  Or even "Fido".  He has done little to build trust. He's still waging a grudge against someone who can never be President again.

It is below his vote, and at this stage he will need miracles just to avoid losing his three closest wins of 2016 -- Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin -- in 2020. That's before I even discuss Florida, Iowa, and North Carolina.

Americans wondered what it would be like to have a non-politician as President, and they are finding out.

Yeah. Three things need to happen for him to do better next time: A black swan event that scares people from voting against him, the next D nominee being less acceptable than generic D,  and him simply now being given the benefit of the doubt. That worked for W but Trump has a bigger hill to climb.

[hopper]

Looks like Trump's negatives are just about synchronized across polling outfits now. What a mandate he has!

Well he did win the election.

[hopper]

Gen Z will be more non-white than Millennials fwiw.

Most of the non-white growth has been Hispanic though from Central American Countries. Black and Asian Populations haven't grown that much as a % of the US Population as Hispanics have the past 35-40 years.

[Holmes]

Gen Z will be more non-white than Millennials fwiw.

Most of the non-white growth has been Hispanic though from Central American Countries. Black and Asian Populations haven't grown that much as a % of the US Population as Hispanics have the past 35-40 years.

It'll still be more non-white.

[hopper]

Gen Z will be more non-white than Millennials fwiw.

Most of the non-white growth has been Hispanic though from Central American Countries. Black and Asian Populations haven't grown that much as a % of the US Population as Hispanics have the past 35-40 years.

It'll still be more non-white.

Yeah but Mexican Migration was huge into the US from 1972-2005. There wasn't a big jump of migrants from East Asia for example during that time period like there was from Mexico.

[Virginiá]

Looks like Trump's negatives are just about synchronized across polling outfits now. What a mandate he has!

Well he did win the election.

Pfft, you know what I mean. An actual mandate is different than just winning. He lost the popular vote by 2%+ and barely squeaked by in FL, PA, WI and MI - states he needed to win.

In an election between two candidates as disliked as Clinton/Trump, just barely winning like Trump is far from a mandate of any kind.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Looks like Trump's negatives are just about synchronized across polling outfits now. What a mandate he has!

Well he did win the election.

Pfft, you know what I mean. An actual mandate is different than just winning. He lost the popular vote by 2%+ and barely squeaked by in FL, PA, WI and MI - states he needed to win.

In an election between two candidates as disliked as Clinton/Trump, just barely winning like Trump is far from a mandate of any kind.

Did Obama have a mandate for Obamacare?

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/us-health-bill

But it still was a good and necessary thing, right?

[pbrower2a]

Americans wondered what it would be like to have a non-politician as President, and they are finding out.

That's doing non-politicians a bit of an injustice, since Donald Trump is a special kind of non-politicianperson. I assume that someone like Bill Gates for instance would have made a significantly better president. Not that this is a particular hard task.

Except that Americans have little respect for literary genius (they prefer easily-read trash) this would be a nice time for a Vaclav Havel.

I know how I would act on certain matters. I recognize the validity of legal precedent and diplomatic protocol. I would quickly recognize the limits of my knowledge and even of practical  solutions, and know when to defer to the experts.  North Korea? I would be taking every possible trip to China, South Korea, and Japan. As one who respects law and order I would do everything possible to bust foreign figures of organized crime. I might be kissing up to Russia and Vladimir Putin on culture while having any gangster alien deported -- including Russian gangsters.

As significantly, the good-to-great Presidents have either been attorneys or senior military officers. Heck, Truman (the supposed exception) at least made the rank of colonel, and a smart kid like he would get unambiguous direction to go as far as he could in higher education...  I think he would have been a fine attorney. Attorneys are generalists capable of dealing with about everything but medicine, engineering, architecture, accounting, and art.

Trained attorneys are the bulk of American politicians above a certain level. There are other smart people, like accountants, physicians, dentists, engineers, and research scientists -- but most of those have no desire to enter politics. 
 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Indeed. But most politicians have made some shady compromises or have been involved in self-serving deeds or questionable loyalties (as soon as Donald Trump attacked Hillary Clinton for enabling her husband's sexual escapades he may have won despite bragging about grabbing women by the crotch, he may have destroyed her chances of winning the election). 

I see Trump's purported acumen as a businessman not so impressive as it seems to most Americans. He makes his money by exploiting a scarcity of housing in a high-income area. Outside of that he is not a successful businessman. So what causes anyone to think that he has the broad base of knowledge for dealing with military affairs, diplomacy, budgeting, or general legislation. Attorneys who enter politics to enhance their political careers often become politicians. Donald Trump is very much an Outsider.

Now suppose that I have a critical and delicate, high-risk operation awaiting me lest I die. Do I want a physician proudly in the mainstream of medicine, or do I want someone on the fringe?   

I rest my case.

[Blackacre]

Looks like Trump's negatives are just about synchronized across polling outfits now. What a mandate he has!

Well he did win the election.

Pfft, you know what I mean. An actual mandate is different than just winning. He lost the popular vote by 2%+ and barely squeaked by in FL, PA, WI and MI - states he needed to win.

In an election between two candidates as disliked as Clinton/Trump, just barely winning like Trump is far from a mandate of any kind.

Did Obama have a mandate for Obamacare?

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/us-health-bill

But it still was a good and necessary thing, right?

Yes, he did. He won by seven points, and his party picked up nine seats in the Senate. As opposed to Trump, who lost by 2 points and whose party lost Senate seats

[Phony Moderate]

Looks like Trump's negatives are just about synchronized across polling outfits now. What a mandate he has!

Well he did win the election.

Pfft, you know what I mean. An actual mandate is different than just winning. He lost the popular vote by 2%+ and barely squeaked by in FL, PA, WI and MI - states he needed to win.

In an election between two candidates as disliked as Clinton/Trump, just barely winning like Trump is far from a mandate of any kind.

Did Obama have a mandate for Obamacare?

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/us-health-bill

But it still was a good and necessary thing, right?

Yes, he did. He won by seven points, and his party picked up nine seats in the Senate. As opposed to Trump, who lost by 2 points and whose party lost Senate seats

But would you make the same point if Hillary had won while losing by 2% and was now pushing a more radical healthcare plan than Obamacare? The only thing that matters is who gets to 270. If the voters of PA, MI, WI etc don't like what Trump is doing then they can vote him out in 2020. No where is it written down that a party/candidate has to meet a certain criteria in winning an election in order to pursue their agenda. Besides, Trump's plans can easily be intellectually hammered without the need to resort to tedious lines about whether or not he has a mandate.

[heatcharger]

Trump plummets to 37/58 in Gallup. A new low.

[Ronnie]

Trump plummets to 37/58 in Gallup. A new low.

It's probably just noise, but wow!  I don't think Obama ever dropped that low, and we're less than two months into Trump's administration.

[Devout Centrist]

Trump plummets to 37/58 in Gallup. A new low.

[Lief 🗽]

Trump plummets to 37/58 in Gallup. A new low.

It's probably just noise, but wow!  I don't think Obama ever dropped that low, and we're less than two months into Trump's administration.

Yup, Obama's lowest approval ever in Gallup was 38%.

[Middle-aged Europe]

For historical comparison, here are the Gallup approvals of U.S. presidents during mid-to-late March of their first year in office:

Obama 63%
Bush II 58%
Clinton 53%
Bush I 56%
Reagan 60%
Carter 75%
Nixon 65%

[Holmes]

Trump plummets to 37/58 in Gallup. A new low.

It's probably just noise, but wow!  I don't think Obama ever dropped that low, and we're less than two months into Trump's administration.

Maybe. But what's different is that Trump is now (50+ days later) pushing for policy with health care and his budget. It's unpopular and maybe some "give him a chance" people are bailing.