The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[I Won - Get Over It]

Rasmussen

Total, -12
44 (-/-)
56 (-/-)

Strongly, -17
27 (-/-)
44 (-/-)

[pbrower2a]

The '44' that Rasmussen suggests puts Trump within range of winning the Presidency -- but the '56' says that it is out of reach.

No undecided? Aren't there some people in transition  in their views of him?

[Ronnie]

PPP national poll (3/27-3/28)
Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 53%

[Wiz in Wis]

PPP national poll (3/27-3/28)
Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 53%

Another "all time low" for a pollster.

[pbrower2a]

The only good news for Trump is that Americans prefer him to Mike Pence. Insurance against impeachment, I suppose.

On Trump:

honest/dishonest 39/55
non-liar/liar 44/50
do not release/release tax returns 33/61
not divest/divest 30/64
the wall with Mexico 37/55

impeach or not -- practically even

Others:

Russia 13/64
Putin 9/72
Konnelsky 19/54 ("Mc" and "sky" are both patronymics -- get it?)
Ryan 21/64

Congress itself 11-68

Congressional ballot, 2018:  48-43 edge Democratic

Trust Obama (53) or Trump (42)

Trump loses badly to Biden, Sanders; Franken, Booker, and Warren already have edges.

  

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gallup

Approve 38% (+3)
Disapprove 57% (-2)

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup:
38 (+3)/57(+2) Oh no here comes his momentum back/s

[Virginiá]

Gallup:
38 (+3)/57(+2) Oh no here comes his momentum back/s

And somewhere out there someone is probably thinking that. It definitely is amusing how Trump is losing so much that he probably will move the "successful approval" goalposts somewhere in the 40s - the only numbers he seems able to sustain for any reasonable period of time (so far)

[I Won - Get Over It]

icitizen, All Adults, 1100, March 27-29 vs March 20-23
 https://icitizen.com/insights/trump-job-approval-march-27-29-2017/

33 (-4)
66 (+4)

[Dr. Arch]

icitizen, All Adults, 1100, March 27-29 vs March 20-23
 https://icitizen.com/insights/trump-job-approval-march-27-29-2017/

33 (-4)
66 (+4)

Holy sh*t

[heatcharger]

icitizen, All Adults, 1100, March 27-29 vs March 20-23
 https://icitizen.com/insights/trump-job-approval-march-27-29-2017/

33 (-4)
66 (+4)

Yeah I don't think so, but there's a clear trend among all pollsters within the last few weeks. It is interesting but also sad that healthcare is one of the few issues that actually moves the needle in this country.

[heatcharger]

FDU poll of New Jersey:

Approve 28% (-9)
Disapprove 61% (+11)

[ProgressiveCanadian]

FDU poll of New Jersey:

Approve 28% (-9)
Disapprove 61% (+11)

Bahahahaha Bush level collapse confirmed.

[pbrower2a]

Virginia poll:

Approve: 37%
Disapprove: 59%

http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/march%2028%20report%20final.pdf

New York - Quinnipiac:

Approve: 29%
Disapprove: 67%

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/ny/ny03292017_Nt34fmbx.pdf/

Matches the Siena poll.

Virginia:

Another poll of Virginia, ratifying what looked like an outlier. President Trump did lose Virginia, but nothing like this. Add 6% to the approval rating, and he gets only 43% of the binary vote in Virginia. Should Donald Trump get that little of the vote  in 2020 he would under-perform Goldwater in Virginia.


If there should be another statewide poll tomorrow morning, I will simply add it.

New York:

This is not the state that I most wanted to see a poll from (Ohio), but it gives me an unambiguous statement on approval of the President.  I dislike the "excellent-good-fair-poor" division because the word "fair" can have positive connotations.  "Fair" playing of the violin by a seven-year-old child is remarkable. "Fair" playing of a violin by an adult isn't so remarkable. 

This is down in the range of approvals that I have seen for President Obama in such states as Oklahoma and Wyoming. One of the states that knows the President best likes him least.

Gallup:

Approve: 35% (-1)
Disapprove: 59% (+3)

Wow!

Jack Benny's violin playing was more appealing than this Presidency. (Actually he simply played a violin out of tune; his technique was good enough).

FDU poll of New Jersey:

Approve 28% (-9)
Disapprove 61% (+11)

Really, really awful in what is probably the state in which he is second-best known. Nothing for Connecticut, yet, which would complete the Tri-State.




Favorability:

Still useful for some states.


Approval:

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40% 
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.   

[Holmes]

Below 30% in Democratic states, above 40% in Republican states, and in the 30's everywhere else.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

FDU poll of New Jersey:

Approve 28% (-9)
Disapprove 61% (+11)

Revenge of the Muslims cheering on 9/11.

[Adam Griffin]

If I had to guess where Trump is at right now based on an average of polls, then I'd say something like this. If the hemorrhaging shown in some polls is correct, then I'd expect a disproportionate share of it is coming from places where he over-performed relative to 2008/2012 (Midwest/Rust Belt/even parts of Appalachia). This would put him at majority disapproval in around 30 states; net disapproval in all but a dozen or so.

[OneJ]

At this point, it wouldn't be surprising to see Trump slightly above or even slightly underwater in MS.

[The_Doctor]

AP poll:  Trump 40% approval, 58% disapproval. Key sub-poll:  Trump 50-48% on Economy.

Crucially, Trump's base has not yet abandoned him to the wolves. His strength on the economy probably protects him from total implosion/impeachment. However when the recession comes and things turn to the worse then at that point Trumpy's base will abandon him and his ratings will go down to the low 30s. But they're unlikely to reach that in the aggregate until 2018-2019. His downfall will take time. But we see the keys for when that event will occur.

The economic downturn will be a very dangerous political time for Trumpy and it will be when he is at his most authoritarian.

[I Won - Get Over It]

AP poll:  Trump 40% approval, 58% disapproval. Key sub-poll:  Trump 50-48% on Economy.

Crucially, Trump's base has not yet abandoned him to the wolves. His strength on the economy probably protects him from total implosion/impeachment. However when the recession comes and things turn to the worse then at that point Trumpy's base will abandon him and his ratings will go down to the low 30s. But they're unlikely to reach that in the aggregate until 2018-2019. His downfall will take time. But we see the keys for when that event will occur.

The economic downturn will be a very dangerous political time for Trumpy and it will be when he is at his most authoritarian.

Yes, if recession comes, he's toast. And it is a pretty big "if".

Do you think that Trumps deregulation are good or bad for the economy? At least in sportterm they are probably good. So I'd say that the probability of recession before 2020 is pretty low.

So what would happen if there is no recession, a "better" immigration system and more jobs? Democrats and media went all-in that Trump's presidency will be a disaster. What if they "slightly" exaggerated it...

Yeah, then no recession, a "better" immigration system and more jobs will be just enough for a reelection.

And if he somehow manages to pass "infrastructure spending"-bill...

[Middle-aged Europe]

AP poll:  Trump 40% approval, 58% disapproval. Key sub-poll:  Trump 50-48% on Economy.

Crucially, Trump's base has not yet abandoned him to the wolves. His strength on the economy probably protects him from total implosion/impeachment. However when the recession comes and things turn to the worse then at that point Trumpy's base will abandon him and his ratings will go down to the low 30s. But they're unlikely to reach that in the aggregate until 2018-2019. His downfall will take time. But we see the keys for when that event will occur.

The economic downturn will be a very dangerous political time for Trumpy and it will be when he is at his most authoritarian.

Yes, if recession comes, he's toast. And it is a pretty big "if".

Do you think that Trumps deregulation are good or bad for the economy? At least in sportterm they are probably good. So I'd say that the probability of recession before 2020 is pretty low.

So what would happen if there is no recession, a "better" immigration system and more jobs? Democrats and media went all-in that Trump's presidency will be a disaster. What if they "slightly" exaggerated it...

Yeah, then no recession, a "better" immigration system and more jobs will be just enough for a reelection.

Elections aren't determined by what the opposition says... the opposition will always say that things are bad. Elections are determined by how satisfied voters are with their lives... and when they're not they will agree with the opposition.

[The_Doctor]

AP poll:  Trump 40% approval, 58% disapproval. Key sub-poll:  Trump 50-48% on Economy.

Crucially, Trump's base has not yet abandoned him to the wolves. His strength on the economy probably protects him from total implosion/impeachment. However when the recession comes and things turn to the worse then at that point Trumpy's base will abandon him and his ratings will go down to the low 30s. But they're unlikely to reach that in the aggregate until 2018-2019. His downfall will take time. But we see the keys for when that event will occur.

The economic downturn will be a very dangerous political time for Trumpy and it will be when he is at his most authoritarian.

Yes, if recession comes, he's toast. And it is a pretty big "if"

Actually not a big if at all. It's called the business cycle.

We get a recession once every ten years. Last one was 2010. We're on schedule for one by 2020 at the latest. Why Trumpy is trying for anti-recessionary measures before the recession is kind of curious to me.

[GlobeSoc]

What regions would be the holdout for Trump approvals if recession hits? I'd say Alabama, Wyoming and Idaho, but those might go underwater too.

[pbrower2a]

With polls of only 20 states, I could now project that of states that Trump won that Obama won in 2012, he would have a chance only in Ohio -- and only because I have no polls of Ohio yet. At this stage approval and favorability are close. He could lose Arizona and North Carolina. This is with the generous allowance of adding six points to the approval rating of an elected incumbent and assuming that things will not get worse for his Presidency.

With that, he barely wins Texas. That's enough to keep him from losing as badly as Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1976. But if he bumbles badly enough, he can lose Texas and end up with 100 or fewer electoral votes in 2020.

It is unfortunate that we do not have a general poll -- even an internet poll -- of the 50 states.  

[Dr. Arch]

Rassmussen
57% Disapprove
43% Approve

 28% Strongly Approve
 47% Strongly Disapprove.

 This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19

The collapse continues.