The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

AP poll:  Trump 40% approval, 58% disapproval. Key sub-poll:  Trump 50-48% on Economy.

It's still the Obama economy.

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People gave Hoover a chance for a few months in 1930. But Hoover at least had a moral compass -- just outmoded ideas on how to manage an economy. Like Trump, Hoover was the answer at the time to the question "how would government run if an honest-to-Mammon businessman ran it?"  

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He will have plenty of scapegoats, and until at least November 2018 he will blame people for not making big enough sacrifices on behalf of the economic elites from whom (allegedly) all blessings flow. Donald Trump is not a small-government right-winger; he is a big-government right-winger. He will put profits first, trying to make life more costly by adding more layers of profit which protectionist economics allow.  

The base is not enough. Dewey in 1948, Stevenson, Goldwater, McGovern, Carter in 1980, and Mondale got their parties' bases, if nothing else.  

[Inmate Trump]

AP poll:  Trump 40% approval, 58% disapproval. Key sub-poll:  Trump 50-48% on Economy.

It's still the Obama economy.

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People gave Hoover a chance for a few months in 1930. But Hoover at least had a moral compass -- just outmoded ideas on how to manage an economy. Like Trump, Hoover was the answer at the time to the question "how would government run if an honest-to-Mammon business run things?"  

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He will have plenty of scapegoats, and until at least November 2018 he will blame people for not making big enough sacrifices on behalf of the economic elites from whom (allegedly) all blessings flow. Donald Trump is not a small-government right-winger; he is a big-government right-winger. He will put profits first, trying to make life more costly by adding more layers of profit which protectionist economics allow.  

The base is not enough. Dewey in 1948, Stevenson, Goldwater, McGovern, Carter in 1980, and Mondale got their parties' bases, if nothing else.  

This is an important distinction, and one that many Trump voters have always failed to see (or chosen to overlook).

[The_Doctor]

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Sure but people transferred their approval of the economy from Obama to Trumpy. Not an uncommon political occurrence. It's why Trumpy eagerly took credit for the 298k jobs created in February.

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Not sure what that has to do with my point. Yes, Trumpy's people will rurn on him when we hit a recession -- but it simply means their lives were not improved by Trump. They're tolerating all the crap in the belief Trump will deliver meaningful economic growth to their areas and boost wages.

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Let's get one thing right. Trump is a traditional Republican president wrapped up in an authoritarian and faux populist foil. If he were anything near what he campaigned on he wouldn't be gutting student loans, backing changes to Medicaid, and all these small things. Trump is a captive of the dominant neoliberal ruling Republican establishment because he doesn't have the political capital to stand on his own.

Presidents are expected to deliver. He won't. His supporters will - like his shareholders in his bankruptcy cases and casinos - abandon him. The question is operationally will he leave at the right moment and deflect blame onto Pence down the road for all the crap happening will he be removed from power via impeachment?

Anyway lets not derail the polling thread. Just my two cents.

[GlobeSoc]

What regions would be the holdout for Trump approvals if recession hits? I'd say Alabama, Wyoming and Idaho, but those might go underwater too.

Probably the Southern states of AL, LA, AR, OK, TN, KY and possibly SC in addition to WV, the Dakotas, Wyoming and Idaho. Maybe Nebraska. I think his base is too large in those states that even in the event of recession, he'd still be > breakeven, but barely so.

I'm suspicious of the idea that he would be above water in that many states in that circumstance.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I can't imagine he's above water here, at least if you consider the white working class his "base", which is absurd on its face.

I know someone - a white male - who is in his 60s and retired from a blue-collar job not too long ago. He says Trump is "beyond horrible."

[Ronnie]

McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

[Dr. Arch]

McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

Around D+9 is when the House has a chance of flipping, so this is good this early on.

[Virginiá]

McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

Around D+9 is when the House has a chance of flipping, so this is good this early on.

It is, and this is good news indeed. While the generic ballot technically isn't for state races, it still represents a rather broad view of how the public feels about one party over the other. If these numbers hold in 2017, it could be pretty bad for the GOP in NJ/VA.

However, personally I feel like these numbers are still "reactionary" and not durable. Trump has been under a never-ending stream of scandal or generally bad news coverage, so it's not surprising his approvals/the GOP's numbers are down. I'm not convinced Democratic support on the generic ballot has reached a durable state, where the public is so fed up with Republicans/Trump that almost nothing that is plausible can happen to help the GOP rebound in time. I think it's possible to get there before Nov Oct-Nov 2018, but it'll take at least a year+ rather than a few months.

[windjammer]

McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

Around D+9 is when the House has a chance of flipping, so this is good this early on.

It is, and this is good news indeed. While the generic ballot technically isn't for state races, it still represents a rather broad view of how the public feels about one party over the other. If these numbers hold in 2017, it could be pretty bad for the GOP in NJ/VA.

However, personally I feel like these numbers are still "reactionary" and not durable. Trump has been under a never-ending stream of scandal or generally bad news coverage, so it's not surprising his approvals/the GOP's numbers are down. I'm not convinced Democratic support on the generic ballot has reached a durable state, where the public is so fed up with Republicans/Trump that almost nothing that is plausible can happen to help the GOP rebound in time. I think it's possible to get there before Nov Oct-Nov 2018, but it'll take at least a year+ rather than a few months.

I think Democrats could win the House with a lower lead than 9 points. Remember that the GOP gerrymander never was made based on a so big collapse in the suburbs.

[Wiz in Wis]

McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

Around D+9 is when the House has a chance of flipping, so this is good this early on.

It is, and this is good news indeed. While the generic ballot technically isn't for state races, it still represents a rather broad view of how the public feels about one party over the other. If these numbers hold in 2017, it could be pretty bad for the GOP in NJ/VA.

However, personally I feel like these numbers are still "reactionary" and not durable. Trump has been under a never-ending stream of scandal or generally bad news coverage, so it's not surprising his approvals/the GOP's numbers are down. I'm not convinced Democratic support on the generic ballot has reached a durable state, where the public is so fed up with Republicans/Trump that almost nothing that is plausible can happen to help the GOP rebound in time. I think it's possible to get there before Nov Oct-Nov 2018, but it'll take at least a year+ rather than a few months.

I think Democrats could win the House with a lower lead than 9 points. Remember that the GOP gerrymander never was made based on a so big collapse in the suburbs.

Usually, higher turnout demos favor the GOP (college educated voters in particular). If that trend has indeed reversed, then a lot of these gerrymanders will be bad news bears for the GOP.

[Ronnie]

Gallup:

Approval: 38% (nc)
Disapproval: 56% (-1)

[pbrower2a]

McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

Republicans in Congress have done plenty to hurt themselves lately. They no longer have the excuse "But Obama!"

[I Won - Get Over It]

Ipsos, MARCH 26-30 vs MARCH 21-25

All Adults, 1700 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/
46 (-/-)
47 (-2)


LV, 400 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/LIKELY:1
43 (-3)
50 (+1)

It seems like Ipsos has 2 independent samples

[Mr. Morden]

McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -8
Northeast: -31
South: -7
West: -11

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: -2
blacks: -88
Hispanics: -23

white college graduate: -22
white not college graduate: +15

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -20
over $50k: -9

[Mr. Morden]

McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

Around D+9 is when the House has a chance of flipping, so this is good this early on.

It is, and this is good news indeed. While the generic ballot technically isn't for state races, it still represents a rather broad view of how the public feels about one party over the other. If these numbers hold in 2017, it could be pretty bad for the GOP in NJ/VA.

However, personally I feel like these numbers are still "reactionary" and not durable. Trump has been under a never-ending stream of scandal or generally bad news coverage, so it's not surprising his approvals/the GOP's numbers are down. I'm not convinced Democratic support on the generic ballot has reached a durable state, where the public is so fed up with Republicans/Trump that almost nothing that is plausible can happen to help the GOP rebound in time. I think it's possible to get there before Nov Oct-Nov 2018, but it'll take at least a year+ rather than a few months.

I think Democrats could win the House with a lower lead than 9 points. Remember that the GOP gerrymander never was made based on a so big collapse in the suburbs.

I actually looked at the tipping point House seat in 2016, and compared to the comparable situation in 2004 (which was the House election preceding the Dem. takeover of 2006).  The structural problem for the Dems in the 2010s seems to be pretty bad, and has gotten worse than it was in the 2000s.  The tipping point seat this time around was Mia Love’s seat, and she won by 12.5 points.  This compares to the national margin in the House, which was GOP by 1.1 points.  That suggests that if there was a uniform swing, you’d need to have the Dems win nationally by more than 11 points in order to take back the House.  There just aren’t that many seats that the GOP won this time by single digit margins, so you need a big swing for them to lose the House.

Of course, there won’t be a uniform swing, so maybe the Dems can count on a larger than expected share of the swing taking place in competitive districts.  I looked back at the 2004 election, and if you do the same analysis there, you would predict that the Dems would have needed a 7.7 point national victory margin in 2006 to take the House.  They ended up winning it with an 8.0 point margin, but that was with winning 15 more seats than they actually needed, so the prediction based on a uniform swing from the past election overestimated how much work they needed to do, and it might be the same for 2018.  But I still wouldn’t count on anything less than at least a high single digit popular vote margin of victory being sufficient.

[henster]

Ds path to the majority may result from successive gains in '18 & '20 rather than taking it all back in one cycle. Maybe 15-20 seats in 2018 and another 10 or so in 2020.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I think what is being lost on everyone is it's still only the first 100 days. This could get real ugly

[pbrower2a]

I think what is being lost on everyone is it's still only the first 100 days. This could get real ugly

Right. This is when you offer policies that excite your base and when you offer the opposition deals that they can't refuse. Having despised the President from the moment that he announced his Presidential aspirations,  I obviously can't speak for Trump supporters. But I can see him as a failure.

[Person Man]

McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

Around D+9 is when the House has a chance of flipping, so this is good this early on.

It is, and this is good news indeed. While the generic ballot technically isn't for state races, it still represents a rather broad view of how the public feels about one party over the other. If these numbers hold in 2017, it could be pretty bad for the GOP in NJ/VA.

However, personally I feel like these numbers are still "reactionary" and not durable. Trump has been under a never-ending stream of scandal or generally bad news coverage, so it's not surprising his approvals/the GOP's numbers are down. I'm not convinced Democratic support on the generic ballot has reached a durable state, where the public is so fed up with Republicans/Trump that almost nothing that is plausible can happen to help the GOP rebound in time. I think it's possible to get there before Nov Oct-Nov 2018, but it'll take at least a year+ rather than a few months.

I think Democrats could win the House with a lower lead than 9 points. Remember that the GOP gerrymander never was made based on a so big collapse in the suburbs.

I actually looked at the tipping point House seat in 2016, and compared to the comparable situation in 2004 (which was the House election preceding the Dem. takeover of 2006).  The structural problem for the Dems in the 2010s seems to be pretty bad, and has gotten worse than it was in the 2000s.  The tipping point seat this time around was Mia Love’s seat, and she won by 12.5 points.  This compares to the national margin in the House, which was GOP by 1.1 points.  That suggests that if there was a uniform swing, you’d need to have the Dems win nationally by more than 11 points in order to take back the House.  There just aren’t that many seats that the GOP won this time by single digit margins, so you need a big swing for them to lose the House.

Of course, there won’t be a uniform swing, so maybe the Dems can count on a larger than expected share of the swing taking place in competitive districts.  I looked back at the 2004 election, and if you do the same analysis there, you would predict that the Dems would have needed a 7.7 point national victory margin in 2006 to take the House.  They ended up winning it with an 8.0 point margin, but that was with winning 15 more seats than they actually needed, so the prediction based on a uniform swing from the past election overestimated how much work they needed to do, and it might be the same for 2018.  But I still wouldn’t count on anything less than at least a high single digit popular vote margin of victory being sufficient.

It could cause a situation of a lot of civil unrest if it becomes the case that the government gets reelected and elected despite losing by wide or at least clear and convincing margins. At that point, It would just take a really bad recession to push this country over the edge. Poll after poll seems to hint at that.

[pbrower2a]

Gerrymandering ensures that Democrats need a huge advantage in the popular vote to have a chance to flip the House -- almost 10%. Perhaps our President will fail so horribly as President that people will vote Democratic in 2018 just to check a President showing despotic tendencies. 

[pbrower2a]

From the Loof-Lipra polling service:

Trump approval/disapproval -- 44/44 (Georgia), 38/64 (Minnesota), 42/52 (Ohio)

Septic Polling Associates, 30/65 Illinois. Same for both approval and favorability.

FxO News poll. Inniada. 43-43.

Quipinniac, Connecticut. 22-70 Approval and favorability.

Matt Dillon High School, Dodge City, Kansas. Kansas: Trump arprooval 41, dssaprooval 55






Favorability:

Still useful for some states.


Approval:

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

[Person Man]

From the Loof-Lipra polling service:

Trump approval/disapproval -- 44/44 (Georgia), 38/64 (Minnesota), 42/52 (Ohio)

Septic Polling Associates, 30/65 Illinois. Same for both approval and favorability.

FxO News poll. Inniada. 43-43.

Quipinniac, Connecticut. 22-70 Approval and favorability.

Matt Dillon High School, Dodge City, Kansas. Kansas: Trump arprooval 41, dssaprooval 55






Favorability:

Still useful for some states.


Approval:

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

This just confirms two possibilities at this rate-

The pendulum is swings back again

We are entering a period of decline and potentially institutional extinction over the long but sooner than you think future as an incompetent conservative Government perpetually stays one step ahead electorally of an incompetent liberal Opposition. See Britain the last 7 years and over there, the disaster just keeps getting worse and worse. That country is literally falling apart as it is being run to the ground aided partially by an even less capable opposition. The people over there are literally being cucked hand over foot! 

[heatcharger]

From the Loof-Lipra polling service:

Trump approval/disapproval -- 44/44 (Georgia), 38/64 (Minnesota), 42/52 (Ohio)

Septic Polling Associates, 30/65 Illinois. Same for both approval and favorability.

FxO News poll. Inniada. 43-43.

Quipinniac, Connecticut. 22-70 Approval and favorability.

Matt Dillon High School, Dodge City, Kansas. Kansas: Trump arpooval 41, dssaprooval 55

Um... links please?

[Devout Centrist]

From the Loof-Lipra polling service:

Trump approval/disapproval -- 44/44 (Georgia), 38/64 (Minnesota), 42/52 (Ohio)

Septic Polling Associates, 30/65 Illinois. Same for both approval and favorability.

FxO News poll. Inniada. 43-43.

Quipinniac, Connecticut. 22-70 Approval and favorability.

Matt Dillon High School, Dodge City, Kansas. Kansas: Trump arpooval 41, dssaprooval 55

Um... links please?

April Fools

[GlobeSoc]

I would guess that Kansas poll, if true, would indicate that the KS-GOV is going to be very interesting and that KS-03 is getting spooky fast. KS-02 and KS-04 would both be likely R instead of safe R. IL-GOV and NM-GOV are gone for the Republicans, Likely-D verging on safe-D.

Donnelly is still going to be able to hold on if Indiana is tied in approval. They love ticket splitting and will believe giving Donnelly a second term will be a check on Trump.

Although I was probably overconfident in my earlier gubernatorial predictions for the situation as it was known a few days ago, it may actually come to fruition with how the Republicans are doing. Doubly so if the upland south experiences less-than-expected economic growth and thus causes one of his main regional base to desert. I think that Idaho and Wyoming will be his holdout for approval. Deep South has black people, meaning a relatively weak defection of whites to disapprove would put him underwater. The Upland South is doing badly economically, and the blame may get shifted to Trump from Obama if recession hits(same with North Dakota). The states of Wyoming and Idaho are rural enough and economically conservative enough that he would have to be in the process of impeachment with actual incriminating evidence for him to go underwater there.

Sidenote, imagine if Connecticut went 70-28 against Trump.

Basically, the GOP is in for a nightmare of GOP wave 2014 to Democratic wave 2018 with losses by repubs that make the Democrats problems in 2010 look small.

They can get out of this, it's still early, but it's unlikely because Trump doesn't have governing experience.