The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
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  The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 179398 times)
GlobeSoc
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« Reply #1325 on: April 01, 2017, 11:47:06 AM »

I would guess that Kansas poll, if true, would indicate that the KS-GOV is going to be very interesting and that KS-03 is getting spooky fast. KS-02 and KS-04 would both be likely R instead of safe R. IL-GOV and NM-GOV are gone for the Republicans, Likely-D verging on safe-D.

Donnelly is still going to be able to hold on if Indiana is tied in approval. They love ticket splitting and will believe giving Donnelly a second term will be a check on Trump.

Although I was probably overconfident in my earlier gubernatorial predictions for the situation as it was known a few days ago, it may actually come to fruition with how the Republicans are doing. Doubly so if the upland south experiences less-than-expected economic growth and thus causes one of his main regional base to desert. I think that Idaho and Wyoming will be his holdout for approval. Deep South has black people, meaning a relatively weak defection of whites to disapprove would put him underwater. The Upland South is doing badly economically, and the blame may get shifted to Trump from Obama if recession hits(same with North Dakota). The states of Wyoming and Idaho are rural enough and economically conservative enough that he would have to be in the process of impeachment with actual incriminating evidence for him to go underwater there.

Sidenote, imagine if Connecticut went 70-28 against Trump.

Basically, the GOP is in for a nightmare of GOP wave 2014 to Democratic wave 2018 with losses by repubs that make the Democrats problems in 2010 look small.

They can get out of this, it's still early, but it's unlikely because Trump doesn't have governing experience.

"Septic Polling Associates"
heh
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I Won - Get Over It
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« Reply #1326 on: April 01, 2017, 12:06:47 PM »
« Edited: April 01, 2017, 12:09:25 PM by I Won - Get Over It »

Gallup

40 (+2)
56 (-/-)



I wonder if it is Trump's new average. 39% ±3
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #1327 on: April 01, 2017, 12:34:13 PM »

From the Loof-Lipra polling service:

Trump approval/disapproval -- 44/44 (Georgia), 38/64 (Minnesota), 42/52 (Ohio)

Septic Polling Associates, 30/65 Illinois. Same for both approval and favorability.

FxO News poll. Inniada. 43-43.

Quipinniac, Connecticut. 22-70 Approval and favorability.

Matt Dillon High School, Dodge City, Kansas. Kansas: Trump arprooval 41, dssaprooval 55

Thanks. The House and probably even Senate flipping in 2018 is basically a given at this point. I'd like to see a Missouri poll to see if McCaskill's race is Safe or Likely D, though.
Safe?! It's Titanium D. Plus Sununu will win for sure, so NH is TITANIUM R.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1328 on: April 01, 2017, 01:01:18 PM »

From the Loof-Lipra polling service:

Trump approval/disapproval -- 44/44 (Georgia), 38/64 (Minnesota), 42/52 (Ohio)

Septic Polling Associates, 30/65 Illinois. Same for both approval and favorability.

FxO News poll. Inniada. 43-43.

Quipinniac, Connecticut. 22-70 Approval and favorability.

Matt Dillon High School, Dodge City, Kansas. Kansas: Trump arpooval 41, dssaprooval 55

Um... links please?
April Fools

lol couldn't tell cause it's pbrower
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1329 on: April 01, 2017, 02:55:36 PM »

From the Loof-Lipra polling service:

Trump approval/disapproval -- 44/44 (Georgia), 38/64 (Minnesota), 42/52 (Ohio)

Septic Polling Associates, 30/65 Illinois. Same for both approval and favorability.

FxO News poll. Inniada. 43-43.

Quipinniac, Connecticut. 22-70 Approval and favorability.

Matt Dillon High School, Dodge City, Kansas. Kansas: Trump arpooval 41, dssaprooval 55

Um... links please?
April Fools

lol couldn't tell cause it's pbrower

Look at the pollster names; they're a bit of a giveaway. Fxo instead of Fox, Quipinniac instead of Quinnipiac, etc.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1330 on: April 01, 2017, 11:32:56 PM »
« Edited: April 02, 2017, 12:01:18 AM by pbrower2a »

Four more from Loof-Lipra, both involving the West.

Alaska 45-52
Montana 42-47
Nevada 39-63

Nebraska, statewide 43-43
District #1 missing
District #2 43-47
District #3 60-37

Septic Polling Associates,
North Dakota 43-37
South Dakota same

I finally have a link here






Favorability:




Still useful for some states.


Approval:








Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1331 on: April 02, 2017, 09:01:56 AM »
« Edited: April 02, 2017, 02:49:41 PM by pbrower2a »

Moderator: you are welcome to move the April Fools' jokes (including the fake polls that I made yesterday and their responses) to a new or existing thread suited  to such levity. The misspellings were intended as clues.
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CapoteMonster
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« Reply #1332 on: April 02, 2017, 12:04:54 PM »

Down to 38 in Gallup

http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx
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Person Man
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« Reply #1333 on: April 02, 2017, 02:55:20 PM »


That is probably where we will be with a healthy economy. This is where Bush was before things got reallt bad for us all.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1334 on: April 02, 2017, 03:00:50 PM »


The good news is that he is stabilizing at a level above that in which a military coup is possible. The bad news is that he has badly damaged his credibility as President; he  may have inflicted the sort of gridlock that we have had with Obama as President and Republicans in control of both Houses of Congress. The other bad news is that he could be taking at the least his House majority down with him and putting many Republican state houses in peril while doing nothing to gain what might otherwise be vulnerable Senate seats now in Democratic hands (as in Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin which he flipped from D to R in the Presidential election of 2016.  

Let there be an economic downturn or some overseas calamity, and he could have a Presidency remembered longest for ending as those of Hoover or Carter. So far we are stuck with the Obama economy and the Obama foreign policy, and I can easily imagine far worse than either.

Approval in the 38% range is likely to remain stable in view of the paucity of his achievements and his many objectionable deeds. If I were  one of his advisers I would tell him to stop using Twitter, with which he achieves nothing except to rile his opposition.      
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1335 on: April 02, 2017, 03:47:34 PM »

Or... in the range in which people can tolerate his failure for an extended time. Democrats may be thinking "this is the price we pay for making big gains in Congress and state legislatures, and we get big rewards in 2020 for putting up with a President that we despise."

If it gets much worse we have the possibility of mass unrest with horrible consequences for the economy and foreign policy. There are countries with excellent intelligence services that could be extremely hostile to President Trump, especially should he start governing far more like a dictator than he does now. A hint: some of these countries have alliances with the USA.

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Person Man
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« Reply #1336 on: April 02, 2017, 05:26:27 PM »

Or... in the range in which people can tolerate his failure for an extended time. Democrats may be thinking "this is the price we pay for making big gains in Congress and state legislatures, and we get big rewards in 2020 for putting up with a President that we despise."

If it gets much worse we have the possibility of mass unrest with horrible consequences for the economy and foreign policy. There are countries with excellent intelligence services that could be extremely hostile to President Trump, especially should he start governing far more like a dictator than he does now. A hint: some of these countries have alliances with the USA.


You mean a situation where there are constant protests, police "no go" zones in most cities and suburbs, and Germany and France doing what Russia did last year?
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hopper
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« Reply #1337 on: April 02, 2017, 11:29:15 PM »

Jesus, do you read anything before posting? I said Gallup at the top (Which has been doing approvals of presidents for quite some time now) of my post, and secondly this in an approval map...idiot.

You basically just proved my point: You're focusing on that Gallup poll, take it as Gospel truth and ignore other polls, which goes against the point of an approval thread (re: "and secondly this in an approval map"). So no... I'm not the one who has issues with reading comprehension. As for the "idiot" thing... well, there's this thing called projection. Given the fact that you think "universal swing" is a thing, you should probably be more careful with throwing around this term.

Sorry for derailing this thread, but it's unbelievable that people here are predicting the demise of the Republican Party and Democratic landslide victories in 2018, 2020 and 2022 based on approval numbers in March 2017. That's it from me.

Some type of average for every state would be good. I didn't find something like that on RCP, maybe someone has a link or could create one.

Is it really unreasonable to expect a backlash of some sort against a party whose President is sitting in the 30's fairly consistently? I don't think so. Fwiw, I feel like the backlash will be mainly concentrated in swing/blue/pink states in 2017-18, not so much in deep red states outside of state-specific fluky gubernatorial elections in places like CT, AL, and KS where I think the out party has a considerable opportunity. We haven't had something like this since W's second term. And the economy is good right now, which makes it all the more mind-blowing.
I don't think a Democrat could win the AL Governorship at this point. Yes KS has had Dem Governors in the past(Finney and Sebelius.)
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hopper
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« Reply #1338 on: April 02, 2017, 11:39:53 PM »

Trumps approvals with Whites and Hispanics are surprisingly pretty close in this poll.

His numbers are bad with White College Graduates though at -22.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1339 on: April 02, 2017, 11:41:48 PM »


Probably the new emerging coalition that will flip congress over his incumbency. GA-6 is important to see whether this is already materializing early.
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hopper
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« Reply #1340 on: April 02, 2017, 11:42:34 PM »

Not really Congressional Republicans but this current Presidential Administration has been chaotic with the Russia Investigation hanging over their heads currently.
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hopper
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« Reply #1341 on: April 02, 2017, 11:45:49 PM »

I would guess that Kansas poll, if true, would indicate that the KS-GOV is going to be very interesting and that KS-03 is getting spooky fast. KS-02 and KS-04 would both be likely R instead of safe R. IL-GOV and NM-GOV are gone for the Republicans, Likely-D verging on safe-D.

Donnelly is still going to be able to hold on if Indiana is tied in approval. They love ticket splitting and will believe giving Donnelly a second term will be a check on Trump.

Although I was probably overconfident in my earlier gubernatorial predictions for the situation as it was known a few days ago, it may actually come to fruition with how the Republicans are doing. Doubly so if the upland south experiences less-than-expected economic growth and thus causes one of his main regional base to desert. I think that Idaho and Wyoming will be his holdout for approval. Deep South has black people, meaning a relatively weak defection of whites to disapprove would put him underwater. The Upland South is doing badly economically, and the blame may get shifted to Trump from Obama if recession hits(same with North Dakota). The states of Wyoming and Idaho are rural enough and economically conservative enough that he would have to be in the process of impeachment with actual incriminating evidence for him to go underwater there.

Sidenote, imagine if Connecticut went 70-28 against Trump.

Basically, the GOP is in for a nightmare of GOP wave 2014 to Democratic wave 2018 with losses by repubs that make the Democrats problems in 2010 look small.

They can get out of this, it's still early, but it's unlikely because Trump doesn't have governing experience.
The thing is Trump is nowhere near as likeable as Obama was.
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hopper
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« Reply #1342 on: April 02, 2017, 11:59:04 PM »

Gallup:
38 (+3)/57(+2) Oh no here comes his momentum back/s

And somewhere out there someone is probably thinking that. It definitely is amusing how Trump is losing so much that he probably will move the "successful approval" goalposts somewhere in the 40s - the only numbers he seems able to sustain for any reasonable period of time (so far)
I have though about this and I think Trump's approval ceiling and floor are pretty close.
He only got 46% of the popular vote so his approvals will probably stay in the high 30's/low-mid 40's rage.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1343 on: April 03, 2017, 12:11:51 AM »

Or... in the range in which people can tolerate his failure for an extended time. Democrats may be thinking "this is the price we pay for making big gains in Congress and state legislatures, and we get big rewards in 2020 for putting up with a President that we despise."

If it gets much worse we have the possibility of mass unrest with horrible consequences for the economy and foreign policy. There are countries with excellent intelligence services that could be extremely hostile to President Trump, especially should he start governing far more like a dictator than he does now. A hint: some of these countries have alliances with the USA.


You mean a situation where there are constant protests, police "no go" zones in most cities and suburbs, and Germany and France doing what Russia did last year?

Protests and strikes. The strikes will begin when the Republicans outlaw unions or make dealing with them 'voluntary only' at the discretion of companies.  "No-go" zones for the police? Not necessary. The President will be giving orders that nobody wants to obey.   
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I Won - Get Over It
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« Reply #1344 on: April 03, 2017, 09:01:01 AM »

New all-time low in Rasmussen

Total, -16:
42 (-1)
58 (+1)

Strongly, -19:
27 (-1)
46 (-1)
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1345 on: April 03, 2017, 09:03:05 AM »

New all-time low in Rasmussen

Total, -16:
42 (-1)
58 (+1)

Strongly, -19:
27 (-1)
46 (-1)

Ras is almost in line with Gallup at this point, quite telling.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1346 on: April 03, 2017, 10:30:04 AM »

Don't know how significant it is, but the fact that 15% somewhat approve whereas only 12% somewhat disapprove might indicate he has more room to fall than rise.

People go one step or the other at a time.

strong disapproval<>some disapproval<>undecided or neutral<>some approval<>strong approval

Some people with unstable minds might make a jump, but there aren't that many unstable people under normal situations. A catastrophe might send someone from strong approval to strong disapproval, but such is not normal politics. 

I am tempted to believe that strong disapproval is the stickiest position for anyone. Few people steadily become more sympathetic to tornadoes, rattlesnakes, Stalinism, or the Klan.   President Trump isn't quite in that category, but undoing the ill will that he has engendered will be extremely difficult if at all possible. 
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #1347 on: April 03, 2017, 10:32:17 AM »

Some people with unstable minds might make a jump, but there aren't that many unstable people under normal situations. A catastrophe might send someone from strong approval to strong disapproval, but such is not normal politics.

I'm not so sure if big jumps are that uncommon. When Bill Clinton endorsed school uniforms, I made a pretty big jump.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1348 on: April 03, 2017, 11:05:43 AM »

New all-time low in Rasmussen

Total, -16:
42 (-1)
58 (+1)

Strongly, -19:
27 (-1)
46 (-1)

The cheerleader pollster is beginning to recognize that the team it cheers is down 30-0  in the first quarter and the quarterback has neither a clue nor protection. When you throw short passes on 3rd-and-30 plays and get intercepted for runback touchdowns by the defensive team, nothing is working and the cheerleaders figure that out fast.  
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1349 on: April 03, 2017, 11:30:34 AM »

SurveyMonkey national poll, conducted Mar. 24-30:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83Vpfes67zfUUw4dVVaMTc2bm8/view

Trump approve / disapprove:

adults: 42/56% for -14%
RVs: 43/57% for -14%

men: -1
women: -26
whites: +2
blacks: -60
Hispanics: -46

white college grad: -24
white non-college grad: +14
non-white college grad: -50
non-white non-college grad: -42
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