The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[GlobeSoc]

Arkansas - Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College (Previous Poll was in February):

53% Approve (-7)
39% Disapprove (+9)

Source

Which demos caused that large shift?

[Mr. Morden]

The majority of Americans will rally behind a war until they start seeing all the caskets coming home and endless news reports for months of a lack of success in the mission. It's that alone, not even the potentially countless civilian deaths or total destruction of another country, that discourages Americans' support for war.

I agree with that part.  American casualties are the unpopular part of war.  But if the war is conducted from the air, with no large occupying army, then there isn't going to be much of anything in the way of American casualties.  And I don't think Trump subscribes to Colin Powell's "pottery barn rule", so it's not clear to me that he's ever going to try to fight a ground war, or embrace Petraeus-style counterinsurgency.  He could just fight from the air, and thus never get bogged down in a conflict that would generate more than a handful of American casualties.

[Gass3268]

Nothing unifies Americans behind their dear leader quite like dropping bombs on other countries.

48/47 hardly counts as unified.

Meanwhile, in The Economist/YouGov poll (previous poll was last week):

All Adults:

Approve 40%
Disapprove 50% (+2)

Registered Voters:

Approve 43%
Disapprove 52% (+2)

Point taken. His approval numbers do appear to have improved some since their low point just prior to the bombing, however. Whether that was caused by the bombing or not is hard to tell. But I do believe if he dramatically increased American invervention in Syria then his approval ratings would increase substantially.

I think some of his disastrous numbers from the Health Care debate have dropped off too.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Point taken. His approval numbers do appear to have improved some since their low point just prior to the bombing, however. Whether that was caused by the bombing or not is hard to tell. But I do believe if he dramatically increased American invervention in Syria then his approval ratings would increase substantially.

I'm not so sure. War is somewhat popular -- in the abstract. People like the idea of showing that America is "tough", but they start getting weary once they hear about it on the news every day for months and months. It's what happened with Iraq.

A war only seems to be unpopular when America isn't winning it. Among those of us who're anti-war it'll always be unpopular, but history has shown countless times that we're the minority. The majority of Americans will rally behind a war until they start seeing all the caskets coming home and endless news reports for months of a lack of success in the mission. It's that alone, not even the potentially countless civilian deaths or total destruction of another country, that discourages Americans' support for war.

A war is popular if it's a quick victory like the 1st Gulf War or a sustained national effort against a powerful threatening enemy like World War II. However, these are fairly uncommon nowadays, and long-term quagmires with guerilla warfare, nation-building, and mission creep have been far more common since 1945. Even the Korean War was unpopular at the time.

[pbrower2a]

Point taken. His approval numbers do appear to have improved some since their low point just prior to the bombing, however. Whether that was caused by the bombing or not is hard to tell. But I do believe if he dramatically increased American intervention in Syria then his approval ratings would increase substantially.

I'm not so sure. War is somewhat popular -- in the abstract. People like the idea of showing that America is "tough", but they start getting weary once they hear about it on the news every day for months and months. It's what happened with Iraq.

It's victory or its prospect, especially if it is cheap, that people love. People suspend their moral judgments of war until the filled body bags start returning, military aircraft go down, or when ships start sinking.   

War is great for stimulating the economy and creating jobs, and (for a time) offering patriotism to unify a divided culture.  Of course, President Trump isn't so great at convincing people who voted against him and define patriotism as something other than support for a dictatorial style of government.

[Mr. Morden]

Nothing unifies Americans behind their dear leader quite like dropping bombs on other countries.

48/47 hardly counts as unified.

Meanwhile, in The Economist/YouGov poll (previous poll was last week):

All Adults:

Approve 40%
Disapprove 50% (+2)

Registered Voters:

Approve 43%
Disapprove 52% (+2)

crosstabs:

men: -8
women: -13
income under $50k: -14
income between $50k and $100k: -6
income over $100k: -31
white: +4
black: -59
Hispanic: -44

So the “over $100k” income group here is the exact opposite result as in the Morning Consult poll.  +23 points in one poll and -31 points in the other.  Of course, that cohort is smaller than the other two income cohorts, so MoE is larger.

[Sorenroy]

Gallup (4/09/17-4/11/17):

Approve 41% (+1)
Disapprove 52% (-2)

Source

[Gass3268]

Gallup:

40% Approve (-1)
54% Disapprove (+2)

[Matty]

Why is there so much more variance in trump's approval polls than Obama's? Rasmussen, politico, and CBS all find him around -4 on average, while gallup has been -11-12 for a while.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Why is there so much more variance in trump's approval polls than Obama's? Rasmussen, politico, and CBS all find him around -4 on average, while gallup has been -11-12 for a while.

These days, CBS is essentially another Fox News in their coverage.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Why is there so much more variance in trump's approval polls than Obama's? Rasmussen, politico, and CBS all find him around -4 on average, while gallup has been -11-12 for a while.

These days, CBS is essentially another Fox News in their coverage.

difference between polls and news bias though, Fox News tends to have accurate polls despite their news bias

[GeorgiaModerate]

Also check the population being sampled.  I believe Gallup polls all adults.  Some of the others may be polling registered voters or likely voters.

[Gass3268]

Also check the population being sampled.  I believe Gallup polls all adults.  Some of the others may be polling registered voters or likely voters.

Polling likely voters right now is so stupid too.

[Gass3268]

Marist:

39% Approve (+1)
49% Disapprove (-2)

Source

[Gass3268]

Survey Monkey:

44% Approve (+2)
53% Disapprove (-3)

Source

[Mr. Morden]

Survey Monkey:

44% Approve (+2)
53% Disapprove (-3)

Source

On the page with the crosstabs, it says 45% for adults, and 46% for registered voters:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArbGp4UkFxYTlHekk/view

adults: 45/53% for -8%
RVs: 46/53% for -7%

men: +7
women: -24
whites: +9
blacks: -57
Hispanics: -38

white college grad: -17
white non-college grad: +20
non-white college grad: -47
non-white non-college grad: -37

[Sorenroy]

Gallup (4/11/17-4/13/17):

Approve 40% (±0)
Disapprove 55% (+1)

Source

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Survey Monkey:

44% Approve (+2)
53% Disapprove (-3)

Source

On the page with the crosstabs, it says 45% for adults, and 46% for registered voters:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArbGp4UkFxYTlHekk/view

adults: 45/53% for -8%
RVs: 46/53% for -7%

men: +7
women: -24
whites: +9
blacks: -57
Hispanics: -38

white college grad: -17
white non-college grad: +20
non-white college grad: -47
non-white non-college grad: -37

American men are pretty terrible it seems.

[Sorenroy]

Trump back under 40% approval per Gallup....only 39% Approve today

To be a little more specific:

Gallup (4/12/17-4/14/17):

Approve 39% (-1)
Disapprove 55% (±0)

Source

[I Won - Get Over It]

Gallup, April 13-15

41% (+2)
53% (-2)

Trump's job approval seems to have stabilized around 40%.

[Matty]

What is the borderline between noise and significant movement?

A 4 point swing?

[Fusionmunster]

What is the borderline between noise and significant movement?

A 4 point swing?

In terms of a daily tracking poll, its noise. Trump has been at or around 40% for over a week, 41% is within that ballpark.

[The_Doctor]

So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.

[hopper]

So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.

Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

[The_Doctor]

So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.

Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.