The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[hopper]

So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.

Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.

True if a recession comes he will take the hit like Carter did in '80 and Bush HW did in '92 and be a one-termer. We don't know about the ending result of the scandals(.i.e. Russia) but it doesn't look good.

There is no if. There will be a recession. As far as Russia, he either quits, impeachment, or is quietly forced to abandon a run for President for a second term. The last option could honestly realistically happen so the GOP can try to find someone else but I'm not sure really how that would work out for them ...

Why are you so sure there is going to be a recession?

All bull markets come to an end. Count on Republican efforts to cut wages to stimulate profits; by doing so they cut the consumer economy.

How are Republicans going to cut wages? There is no 60 Republican votes in the US Senate to do that even if they wanted to cut wages.

[hopper]

It's hard to see that deficit among millennials as anything but lethal for Republican presidential candidates, if not in the next presidential election, then in the ones after that.  They better do something to bring more young people on their side, and fast, or else they're in deep trouble.  Something tells me they've already read the tea leaves, and are just hoping to stack the Supreme Court with as many conservatives as possible in the meantime to make the impending left-wing rule less painful.

I don't see Clinton appointees like Breyer or Ginsberg retiring off the bench when Trump is still President. Ginsberg should have probably just retired when Obama(i.e. a Democrat Presidential Administration) was in office but she didn't.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Gallup

40% (-2)
54% (+2)

[pbrower2a]

It's hard to see that deficit among millennials as anything but lethal for Republican presidential candidates, if not in the next presidential election, then in the ones after that.  They better do something to bring more young people on their side, and fast, or else they're in deep trouble.  Something tells me they've already read the tea leaves, and are just hoping to stack the Supreme Court with as many conservatives as possible in the meantime to make the impending left-wing rule less painful.

I don't see Clinton appointees like Breyer or Ginsberg retiring off the bench when Trump is still President. Ginsberg should have probably just retired when Obama(i.e. a Democrat Presidential Administration) was in office but she didn't.

They're not not going to retire when a President believes that government rightly represents wealth and economic power or that the prohibition of "cruel and unusual punishment"  stops just short of burning at the stake. Nobody so far left as Barry Goldwater really trusts this President.  

Right-wing rule will be nasty.  Donald Trump makes Calvin Coolidge look like a liberal except perhaps on race.    

[emailking]

The business cycle very rarely goes more than a decade without a recession. I say rarely because I haven't looked at recessions prior to 1920. But here; 1920, 1929, 1937, 1945, 1948, 1958, 1960, 1969, 1973, 1979, 1982, 1990, 2000, 2008, (?).

You'll notice that our last recession ended in 2010. It's highly unlikely that President Trump will not weather a recession by that period. Possible, but very unlikely.

I think it depends whether the length of growth increases the chance of a recession. Otherwise, this might be faulty logic, akin to assuming that a coin coming up heads many times in a row increases the chance that it will come up tails soon, when it doesn't.

There may be correlations between the chance of recession and the length of growth, but do we really know enough about what causes recessions to assume one is very likely in the next few years, beyond simply noticing the duration since the last recession?

[Hindsight was 2020]

When it comes to a possible recession we do have the issue of Trump wanting to bring back coal/manufacturing jobs when the economy is moving green an normally when a president is clashing with the economic environment it has bad results (Hoover/Carter)

[Gass3268]

Trump's rebound seems to be fading a bit.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Rasmussen (4/24/17)

Approve: 51% (+2)
Dissaprove: 49% (-2)

Ticking up but strongly approve/dissaprove is -7.

[Ronnie]

Trump says the ABC and NBC polls are "fake news" because they were "totally wrong in the General E" (never mind the fact that ABC/WaPo was only a point off in their final poll, because who cares about the truth?).

[I Won - Get Over It]

Today's Gallup

40% (-/-)
54% (-/-)

[pbrower2a]

So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.

Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.

True if a recession comes he will take the hit like Carter did in '80 and Bush HW did in '92 and be a one-termer. We don't know about the ending result of the scandals(.i.e. Russia) but it doesn't look good.

There is no if. There will be a recession. As far as Russia, he either quits, impeachment, or is quietly forced to abandon a run for President for a second term. The last option could honestly realistically happen so the GOP can try to find someone else but I'm not sure really how that would work out for them ...

Why are you so sure there is going to be a recession?

All bull markets come to an end. Count on Republican efforts to cut wages to stimulate profits; by doing so they cut the consumer economy.

How are Republicans going to cut wages? There is no 60 Republican votes in the US Senate to do that even if they wanted to cut wages.

National right-to-work (for much less) legislation and an abolition of the federal minimum wage. Such has been a dream of the Corporate Right for several decades, and the Republicans now have the President and Congress of their dreams.

[Virginiá]

National right-to-work (for much less) legislation and an abolition of the federal minimum wage. Such has been a dream of the Corporate Right for several decades, and the Republicans now have the President and Congress of their dreams.

Meh, I'd dispute that. The GOP under Bush (2005-2007) had it better. Their dream Congress would have been one that a President Hillary Clinton would have delivered in the 2018 midterm, which combined with further gains + the presidency in 2020 would have given them a lot more power to push through their priorities.

As it stands now, it's easy to see the GOP being only minimally productive under Trump, especially if Democrats take back the House or at least make substantial gains in 2018.

[pbrower2a]

National right-to-work (for much less) legislation and an abolition of the federal minimum wage. Such has been a dream of the Corporate Right for several decades, and the Republicans now have the President and Congress of their dreams.

Meh, I'd dispute that. The GOP under Bush (2005-2007) had it better. Their dream Congress would have been one that a President Hillary Clinton would have delivered in the 2018 midterm, which combined with further gains + the presidency in 2020 would have given them a lot more power to push through their priorities.

As it stands now, it's easy to see the GOP being only minimally productive under Trump, especially if Democrats take back the House or at least make substantial gains in 2018.

I hope that you are right. I saw such legislation pass the Michigan Snake legislature in a state known for some of the most powerful unions ever. if such can pass in Michigan it can pass nationally.

Corporate America hates unions. It wants helpless cheap labor, and I expect Corporate America to stop at nothing toward that end.   

[vote for pedro]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/nearing-100-days-trumps-approval-at-record-lows-but-his-base-is-holding/2017/04/22/a513a466-26b4-11e7-b503-9d616bd5a305_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_poll-1202am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.4d40b6f10e85

Buried in the 26th paragraph:

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[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/nearing-100-days-trumps-approval-at-record-lows-but-his-base-is-holding/2017/04/22/a513a466-26b4-11e7-b503-9d616bd5a305_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_poll-1202am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.4d40b6f10e85

Buried in the 26th paragraph:

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Aside: I guarantee you that the 8% of the electorate who voted for Clinton in November who wouldn't now are still not inclined to vote for him in 2020. Most of these people are probably upset Bernie supporters

It also says that they voted Hillary 46-43. She's doing 6 points worse already.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Rasmussen (4/25/17) Trump CRASHES

Approve: 47% (-4)
Dissaprove: 53% (+4)

Rasmussen seems to be fluctuating recently.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Rasmussen

Total, -6:
47% (-4)
53% (+4)

Strongly, -12:
30 (-2)
42 (+3)

EDIT: second...

[Gass3268]

Rassy is trash regardless of what is shows

[Matty]

Honest question: how does rasmussen get funding? Who would willingly choose to fund it?

[Wiz in Wis]

Today's Gallup 4/25/17

40% (-/-)
55% (+1)

looks like 40 could be his "quiet" Gallup baseline, not 42-43.

[Beet]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/nearing-100-days-trumps-approval-at-record-lows-but-his-base-is-holding/2017/04/22/a513a466-26b4-11e7-b503-9d616bd5a305_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_poll-1202am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.4d40b6f10e85

Buried in the 26th paragraph:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Aside: I guarantee you that the 8% of the electorate who voted for Clinton in November who wouldn't now are still not inclined to vote for him in 2020. Most of these people are probably upset Bernie supporters

It also says that they voted Hillary 46-43. She's doing 6 points worse already.

People don't want to vote for someone perceived as a loser. It doesn't matter because Hillary Clinton will not be the Democratic nominee again barring some total revolution in her image.

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen (4/25/17) Trump CRASHES

Approve: 47% (-4)
Dissaprove: 53% (+4)

Rasmussen seems to be fluctuating recently.

Is it possible to win a Presidential election if one has 53% disapproval?

[heatcharger]

Firehouse Strategies Swing State Voter Study:

Trump Favorables:

Florida: 45/41
Ohio: 45/40
Pennsylvania: 45/45
Wisconsin: 40/47

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Firehouse Strategies Swing State Voter Study:

Trump Favorables:

Florida: 45/41
Ohio: 45/40
Pennsylvania: 45/45
Wisconsin: 40/47

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It's interesting that Wisconsin is so much worse for Trump than the others.  Polling outlier or some actually significant factor in WI?

[heatcharger]

Firehouse Strategies Swing State Voter Study:

Trump Favorables:

Florida: 45/41
Ohio: 45/40
Pennsylvania: 45/45
Wisconsin: 40/47

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's interesting that Wisconsin is so much worse for Trump than the others.  Polling outlier or some actually significant factor in WI?

Maybe. Perhaps those Obama-Trump voters are less likely to turnout in midterms as well.