The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[I Won - Get Over It]

Gallup, All Adults

42% (+1)
54% (-1)


Trump keeps bouncing around 41% (All Adults).

[pbrower2a]

At this point, "adults" is adequate. We have no idea what people will vote in 2020. Will we have an electorate more like that of 2008 or of 2016?

Five years ago, both of my parents could have been seen as 'likely voters' because they consistently voted in elections. They died, and so they did not vote. 

Just a reminder.

[heatcharger]

Magellan Strategies (R) poll of Colorado:

[Ronnie]

I find it hard to believe he's just barely underwater in a state that voted for Hillary.  Probably best to take that poll with a grain of salt.

EDIT: Hmm, now that I'm taking a closer look at the crosstabs, does it really make sense that he's only down by 2 points overall when he's doing about as badly with Democrats as he is doing well with Republicans, and is down 13 points with unaffiliateds?  I'm thinking their sampling distribution might just be off.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I find it hard to believe he's just barely underwater in a state that voted for Hillary.  Probably best to take that poll with a grain of salt.

EDIT: Hmm, now that I'm taking a closer look at the crosstabs, does it really make sense that he's only down by 2 points overall when he's doing about as badly with Democrats as he is doing well with Republicans, and is down 13 points with unaffiliateds?  I'm thinking their sampling distribution might just be off.

Magellan has always had an R bias, although not a huge one.  I think the key factor in this result is:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If this was weighted to match turnout demographics from past midterms, it may be more R-friendly than 2018 is likely to be.   Something that supports this idea: they have Congressional approval at 34-58.  Although underwater, this is still much friendlier to Congress than recent national polls.

[Holmes]

Colorado has a pretty equal D/R/I registration spread right? So -77 D, +74 R and -13 I wouldn't give just -2% unless there's some serious pro-rated weighing.

[pbrower2a]

Magellan Strategies (R) poll of Colorado:

"Likely 2018 voters" probably means  much the same electorate as in 2010 or 2014, something likely not as relevant with a Republican nominee as with a Democratic nominee. For any Hou8se or Senate race a model for 2006 (yes, ten years ago) might even be more relevant than one for 2010 or 2014.

The President's Party usually loses big in a midterm election, and the President this time is not Barack Obama.  I am guessing that with a 2012-style electorate, which would be more generous for Democrats, Donald Trump would be lucky to get anything more than 47% of the binary vote in Colorado. 

So who will be the voters of 2020? Some of them are now fourteen years old.     

[pbrower2a]

Colorado, Magellan Strategies (which had a very strong R bias in polling):

47-49, likely voters in the midterm (probably a 2010 or 2014 model).

Should Donald Trump be a reasonably-successful President, he then will flip Colorado in 2020. Colorado would go back to being slightly, but decisively, red (Atlas blue).  It's hard to believe now, but Colorado went only once for a Democratic nominee for President between the years 1964 (LBJ blowout) and 2008 (near-landslide for Obama), and in such a case Colorado would go back to the sort of state that it was from 1968 to 2004 -- the sort of state that teases Democrats but usually goes Republicans in a national election best described as somewhat-close .

But unless Donald Trump should be wildly successful as President, both 20`8 and 2020 are likely to be rough years for the GOP, including in Colorado. The relevant model for a midterm for 2018 is more likely 2006 than 2010 or 2014.  For a Presidential year, 2016 was an unusually poor year for a Republican in a close election in Colorado. Demographic change can change a state.

It doesn't make sense that Coloradans should see Trump more sympathetically in Texas than in Colorado.... I'm guessing at this point that President Trump could consider himself lucky to get 47% of the vote in Colorado in 2020 even if political realities do not get worse for him.  It may be hard to believe, but this is the first approval poll of Colorado. I expect more.  

Gravis, Ohio . Poll of likely primary voters for 2018:

Trump favorable-unfavorable 49-43. Remember that primary voters tend to lean Republican in statewide elections. ,

I would not be surprised if more state polls come out on Wednesday.
 
Favorability:

*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.  


Still useful for some states -- but not likely for any states from hereon added to the map. Favorability is 'hope'; approval is 'achievement'. President Trump has quickly developed a clear record of achievements and failures.  


Approval:

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 2nd)

42% Approve (-/-)
52% Disapprove (-2)

[I Won - Get Over It]

Ipsos, April 27-May 1  compared to April 22-26

All Adults:
44 (+2)
51 (-2)

LV:
44 (-/-)
52 (-/-)


Yougov, April 29-May 2  compared to April 23-25
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eh981oefng/econToplines.pdf

All Adults:
43 (+1)
47 (-2)

RV:
46 (+1)
47 (-2)


Overall, what grade would you give the men listed below for the first 100 days of their
presidencies?
                               A       B       C     D       F
Donald Trump          17% 22%   18% 13%   30%
Barack Obama         19% 29%   21% 10%   21%
George W. Bush        8%  29%   41% 13%   8%
Ronald Reagan         26% 34%   26%  9%    5%
Franklin Roosevelt    28% 37%    25% 6%    4%

49. If an election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the
district where you live?
The Democratic Party candidate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38%
The Republican Party candidate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
I would not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%


52. Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people?
                       Very fav   Somewhat fav   Somewhat unfav   Very unfav   Don’t know
Donald Trump       26%            18%                    9%              40%               7%
Mike Pence          24%              17%                  12%               29%             17%
Paul Ryan             8%                22%                20%                30%             20%
Mitch McConnell    5%                17%                17%                28%              32%
Nancy Pelosi         7%               19%                 14%                 37%             23%
Chuck Schumer     6%               18%                 12%                 27%             36%

[heatcharger]

Gravis Marketing poll of Ohio:

49% Favorable
43% Unfavorable

[Ronnie]

It's Zogby! (4/28 - 4/29):

Approve: 43.3%
Disapprove: 50.1%

I found the poll through Breitbart, which touted Trump's level of support among Hispanics (lol).

[I Won - Get Over It]

Morning Consult, April 27-30 compared to April 20-24
https://morningconsult.com/2017/05/03/people-split-states-treat-sickest-americans/
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-cb5a-dc47-a5df-fb5e48000002

RV:
48% (-3)
45% (-/-)

Strongly:
24%
31%

If the election for U.S. Congress in your district was held today, which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for?
(D)      41%
(R)      41%
DK/NO 18%

[pbrower2a]

Colorado, Magellan Strategies (which had a very strong R bias in polling):

47-49, likely voters in the midterm (probably a 2010 or 2014 model).

Should Donald Trump be a reasonably-successful President, he then will flip Colorado in 2020. Colorado would go back to being slightly, but decisively, red (Atlas blue).  It's hard to believe now, but Colorado went only once for a Democratic nominee for President between the years 1964 (LBJ blowout) and 2008 (near-landslide for Obama), and in such a case Colorado would go back to the sort of state that it was from 1968 to 2004 -- the sort of state that teases Democrats but usually goes Republicans in a national election best described as somewhat-close .

But unless Donald Trump should be wildly successful as President, both 20`8 and 2020 are likely to be rough years for the GOP, including in Colorado. The relevant model for a midterm for 2018 is more likely 2006 than 2010 or 2014.  For a Presidential year, 2016 was an unusually poor year for a Republican in a close election in Colorado. Demographic change can change a state.

It doesn't make sense that Coloradans should see Trump more sympathetically in Texas than in Colorado.... I'm guessing at this point that President Trump could consider himself lucky to get 47% of the vote in Colorado in 2020 even if political realities do not get worse for him.  It may be hard to believe, but this is the first approval poll of Colorado. I expect more.  

Gravis, Ohio . Poll of likely primary voters for 2018:

Trump favorable-unfavorable 49-43. Remember that primary voters tend to lean Republican in statewide elections. Note that this is a poll of favorability and not a more rigorous poll of approval.

New Jersey, Quinnipiac:

President Trump's Approval Rating

With a more than 2-1 disapproval from women, President Donald Trump gets a negative 35 - 56 percent job approval rating in the Garden State, compared to a negative 34 - 59 percent score in a March 15 Quinnipiac University poll.

Today, women give Trump a negative 28 - 63 percent approval rating. The president has a negative 43 - 49 percent among men.

https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2454

Improvement for Trump  that forces a category change -- but the difference is still within statistical noise.

Execrable performances for Trump in New Jersey and New York suggest that the better he is known, the less he is liked.
 
Favorability:

*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.  


Still useful for some states -- but not likely for any states from hereon added to the map. Favorability is 'hope'; approval is 'achievement'. President Trump has quickly developed a clear record of achievements and failures.  


Approval:

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[I Won - Get Over It]

The next week will be interesting. Will Trump's approval drop under 35% (on average)?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I wonder how the Religious "Freedom" executive order and AHCA passage will affect his approval rating.

[pbrower2a]

The next week will be interesting. Will Trump's approval drop under 35% (on average)?

I wonder how the Religious "Freedom" executive order and AHCA passage will affect his approval rating.

He signed a controversial Executive Order that the courts might (surprise, surprise, surprise!) revoke. The House passed a bill undoing much of Obamacare, and I expect the President to endorse it.

I cannot predict the polling results of such.

President Trump's approval ratings have never gone under 35% in any national poll, although he has gone that far down in some states. The President seemed to have been recovering some.  

Under 35%? The President already has a cult of personality that assures a near minimum of 35% support.

[Wiz in Wis]

The next week will be interesting. Will Trump's approval drop under 35% (on average)?

I wonder how the Religious "Freedom" executive order and AHCA passage will affect his approval rating.

He signed a controversial Executive Order that the courts might (surprise, surprise, surprise!) revoke. The House passed a bill undoing much of Obamacare, and I expect the President to endorse it.

I cannot predict the polling results of such.

President Trump's approval ratings have never gone under 35% in any national poll, although he has gone that far down in some states. The President seemed to have been recovering some.  

Under 35%? The President already has a cult of personality that assures a near minimum of 35% support.

#FakeNews!

https://icitizen.com/insights/trump-job-approval-april-24-27-2017/

[pbrower2a]

The next week will be interesting. Will Trump's approval drop under 35% (on average)?

I wonder how the Religious "Freedom" executive order and AHCA passage will affect his approval rating.

He signed a controversial Executive Order that the courts might (surprise, surprise, surprise!) revoke. The House passed a bill undoing much of Obamacare, and I expect the President to endorse it.

I cannot predict the polling results of such.

President Trump's approval ratings have never gone under 35% in any national poll, although he has gone that far down in some states. The President seemed to have been recovering some.  

Under 35%? The President already has a cult of personality that assures a near minimum of 35% support.

#FakeNews!

https://icitizen.com/insights/trump-job-approval-april-24-27-2017/

So he has been below 35% and has the potential to go below that. Noted.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 4th)

42% Approve (-/-)
52% Disapprove (-/-)

[I Won - Get Over It]

Ipsos, April 30-May 4  compared to April 27-May 1

All Adults:
43 (-1)
52 (+1)

LV:
46 (+2)
51 (-1)


SurveyMonkey, April 28-May 4  compared to April 21-27
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83Vpfes67zfeGZWRklVZ3ZtLWM/view

All Adults:
45 (-1)
52 (-/-)

RV:
47 (-/-)
51 (-1)

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup: 40-54

[I Won - Get Over It]

Gallup: 40-54

40 (-2)
54 (+2)

[pbrower2a]

Gallup: 40-54

I guess the health care vote cost him

It could cost the GOP greatly. But with Gallup we have a three-day average, so we might want to wait a while before drawing any conclusions. A 2% change? Within the usual margin of error.

This is worth remembering: the usual incumbent Governor or Senator running for re-election typically adds about 6% to his early-season approval rating to get the raw percentage of the binary vote. I applied this to Barack Obama, and it worked. I look at where Dubya stood in 2004, and it worked. Politicians with less than 50% approval ratings must campaign to win re-election, and as 'average' campaigners against an 'average' challenger they typically gain about 6%.

This does not apply to open-seat elections; appointed politicians do worse -- much worse -- than those who got elected to office because they never showed that they could campaign competently.   

Figuring that approvals stick at 40% until early 2020 before President Trump starts campaigning, he could end up with 46% of the total vote in November 2020. Of course that would ensure that the next president will be a Democrat, right?

WRONG! Donald Trump won a mere 45.94% of the popular vote in 2016 -- he simply won the 'right' votes. An even shift of 0.35%  would have not been enough to cause him to lose both Michigan and Pennsylvania and the election. If the states fall as they did in 2016, then President Trump could be re-elected with as little as 45.5% of the popular vote and barely win.

Of course that has its own assumptions. One is that third-party nominees will hurt the Democrats as much in 2020 as they hurt the Democrats in 2016. In a pure binary election, 46% of the popular vote is about what Dukakis got in 1988 and about what McCain got in 2008.

President Trump has done little to win over voters who did not go for him in 2016. Of course it is possible that he could exploit a traumatic situation like 9/11 should such happen...  Dubya did gain some from 2000 to 2004. To be sure, Barack Obama tried to build upon his electoral success of 2008 and failed -- but he still got re-elected. He didn't lose enough to get defeated in his re-election bid.

(Yes, I expect a Presidential failure, the difference between him getting anywhere from about 55 to about 140 electoral votes based upon the polls that I have seen so far).

[pbrower2a]

Relevant in the event of the  Trump failure that I see happening so far:

Donald Trump won with a margin of electoral votes more like that of Jimmy Carter.  But Carter would end up with problems that he could not solve, and for which Ronald Reagan offered solutions; also, the states were shifting in their partisan allegiance, but to the detriment of Jimmy Carter. Maybe not the solutions that many Americans would not have liked at the time, but the 1984 election suggested that Reagan did a lot of things right, like lowering many Americans' expectations. Oh, you have a college degree and you hate your job in retail or fast food, but your low pay even worse? There is a solution -- take another such job to supplement your meager earnings, and always remember to show that moronic "Delighted to serve you!" smile! People taking second jobs that they hated as much as their ill-paid first jobs solved lots of economic problems.  They may have hated their lives, but they either accepted things as they were or found ways out, like giving up the white-collar dream for a job that gets one's precious hands dirty.   
 

red -- Carter in 1976 and 1980
white -- Carter 1976, Reagan 1980
blue -- Ford in 1976, Reagan in 1980

(Ignore shades).

Just a reminder: it's the next election that matters. It's not that I expect President Trump to be caught with an economic meltdown as bad as that of 1929-1932 or with a diplomatic disaster as severe as the Iranian hostage crisis.  I'm not saying that the President will lose fifteen states that he won in 2016, and for obvious reasons he can't lose 33 that he won in 2016. But two will be enough if one of them is Florida and one of them is Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin and three will be enough if one of them is Pennsylvania and the other two are any pair of Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.