The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Sorenroy]

Figuring that approvals stick at 40% until early 2020 before President Trump starts campaigning, he could end up with 46% of the total vote in November 2020. Of course that would ensure that the next president will be a Democrat, right?

WRONG! Donald Trump won a mere 45.94% of the popular vote in 2016 -- he simply won the 'right' votes. An even shift of 0.35%  would have not been enough to cause him to lose both Michigan and Pennsylvania and the election. If the states fall as they did in 2016, then President Trump could be re-elected with as little as 45.5% of the popular vote and barely win.

I always thought that the +6% number had to do with the head to head numbers, not the general numbers. Trump may have only gotten 46% in the general election, but take out the third party votes and he went 49-51.

[pbrower2a]

Figuring that approvals stick at 40% until early 2020 before President Trump starts campaigning, he could end up with 46% of the total vote in November 2020. Of course that would ensure that the next president will be a Democrat, right?

WRONG! Donald Trump won a mere 45.94% of the popular vote in 2016 -- he simply won the 'right' votes. An even shift of 0.35%  would have not been enough to cause him to lose both Michigan and Pennsylvania and the election. If the states fall as they did in 2016, then President Trump could be re-elected with as little as 45.5% of the popular vote and barely win.

I always thought that the +6% number had to do with the head to head numbers, not the general numbers. Trump may have only gotten 46% in the general election, but take out the third party votes and he went 49-51.

Nate Silver refers to the binary vote, usually ignoring the Third Party/Independent vote.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 6th)

40% Approve (-/-)
54% Disapprove (-/-)

[MT Treasurer]

People's Pundit Daily polls:

Ohio "Buckeye State Battleground Poll": 53% approve, 43% disapprove

Florida "Sunshine State Battleground Poll": 52% approve, 45% disapprove

[JA]

People's Pundit Daily polls:

Ohio "Buckeye State Battleground Poll": 53% approve, 43% disapprove

Florida "Sunshine State Battleground Poll": 52% approve, 45% disapprove

Even though that polling agency is obviously biased in their support for Trump (read some of their headlines), I do believe the polls thus far are underestimating his support. At the very least, I am convinced he will be a very formidable candidate in 2020 and is by far the favorite to win.

[pbrower2a]

People's Pundit Daily polls:

Ohio "Buckeye State Battleground Poll": 53% approve, 43% disapprove

Florida "Sunshine State Battleground Poll": 52% approve, 45% disapprove

Methodology?

A new pollster who comes up with outlier results and shows editorial bias is suspect.  Both Florida and Ohio are shown with Republican pluralities in partisan ID, something completely new.

No way is either state 10% more Republican than the Gallup polls for nationwide results. 

[Ronnie]

People's Pundit Daily polls:

Ohio "Buckeye State Battleground Poll": 53% approve, 43% disapprove

Florida "Sunshine State Battleground Poll": 52% approve, 45% disapprove

Methodology?

A new pollster who comes up with outlier results and shows editorial bias is suspect.  Both Florida and Ohio are shown with Republican pluralities in partisan ID, something completely new.

No way is either state 10% more Republican than the Gallup polls for nationwide results.  

Actually, according to the 2016 CNN exit polls in Ohio and Florida, Republicans outnumbered Democrats in both states.

I still find it suspect that so many people approve of him in those states, even if the crosstabs and per-county estimates they put out seem oddly plausible.  Still, it's probably best to just throw those polls into the average.

[krazen1211]

People's Pundit Daily polls:

Ohio "Buckeye State Battleground Poll": 53% approve, 43% disapprove

Florida "Sunshine State Battleground Poll": 52% approve, 45% disapprove

Methodology?

A new pollster who comes up with outlier results and shows editorial bias is suspect.  Both Florida and Ohio are shown with Republican pluralities in partisan ID, something completely new.

No way is either state 10% more Republican than the Gallup polls for nationwide results.  

Since the election, the President’s support among whites has held roughly even in the nation’s largest battleground state, while his support among non-whites, particularly Hispanics, has risen slightly on almost ever measure.


Great polls!


By the way, voter registration for Democrats plummeted from 40% to 38% in Florida over the 4 years prior to the 2016 election while Republicans held steady at 36%. Quite easy to see more Republicans in the actual voter pool.

Many of the Democrats might identify as Republicans as they cross sides to vote for Trump!

[Shadows]

The big fall in ratings of Trump will come after atleast 1-1.5 years (if people want low 30's). Most of the people who voted for him are still in his side. Atleast it battleground states where people feel the last administration didn't work want to try Trump & give him a fair chance before turning on him.

Most of these people are not high information voters & won't be swayed by the traditional media. When they will see cuts to programs that matter to them, real effects of new healthcare bill, no major change in economy or it doing worse, they will slowly re-evaluate their support.

It is possibly an over-expectation to expect these anti-establishment working class whites to turn on him within a 100 days !

[emailking]

At the very least, I am convinced he will be a very formidable candidate in 2020 and is by far the favorite to win.

By far...??

[JA]

At the very least, I am convinced he will be a very formidable candidate in 2020 and is by far the favorite to win.

By far...??

Yes. At this point and, barring some disaster or a major political shift, I would place Trump's odds at 2:1 that he will win in 2020.

[Ronnie]

IBD/TIPP (4/28-5/4)

Approve: 39% (+5 since last poll)
Disapprove: 54% (-2 since last poll)

[The_Doctor]

At the very least, I am convinced he will be a very formidable candidate in 2020 and is by far the favorite to win.

By far...??

Yes. At this point and, barring some disaster or a major political shift, I would place Trump's odds at 2:1 that he will win in 2020.

Uh how?

[I Won - Get Over It]

Today's Gallup will be entirely post-House voting. Will it be a big (2-3%) drop again?



Rasmussen, May 3-7, compared to May 2-4
LV:
45% (-1)
54% (-/-)

3 of 5 days are post-voting.

[pbrower2a]

At the very least, I am convinced he will be a very formidable candidate in 2020 and is by far the favorite to win.

By far...??

He is the favorite because the Democrats have plenty of potential candidates candidates for President. So if president Trump has a 40% chance of  winning re-election (and that may be generous on his part) , the Democrats may have four potential nominees but nobody with more than a 15% chance of being nominated.  With that model, Trump is up 40-15 on every possible Democrat even if he has a 60% chance of losing the election.

[Ronnie]

Gallup

Approve: 42% (+2)
Disapprove: 53% (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

At the very least, I am convinced he will be a very formidable candidate in 2020 and is by far the favorite to win.

By far...??

He is the favorite because the Democrats have plenty of potential candidates candidates for President. So if president Trump has a 40% chance of  winning re-election (and that may be generous on his part) , the Democrats may have four potential nominees but nobody with more than a 15% chance of being nominated.  With that model, Trump is up 40-15 on every possible Democrat even if he has a 60% chance of losing the election.

OK, in that sense you're correct; he's the individual leader because of a large field on the other side.
 Similarly, Clinton was clearly the individual leader during the early days of the Republican primary.  But the OP has Trump as a 2:1 favorite to win re-election...which seems ridiculously high.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Gallup

Approve: 42% (+2)
Disapprove: 53% (-1)

Unexpected. We'll need though to see more data-points before drawing any conclusions.

[The_Doctor]

Gallup

Approve: 42% (+2)
Disapprove: 53% (-1)

Unexpected. We'll need though to see more data-points before drawing any conclusions.

Hasn't he been stable around that level, given the economy? Remember, Trump hasn't made any major policies and nothing has been signed. This is basically Trump alienating everyone but his core people and some Republicans who haven't the full force of the Trump incompetence.

[emailking]

At the very least, I am convinced he will be a very formidable candidate in 2020 and is by far the favorite to win.

By far...??

Yes. At this point and, barring some disaster or a major political shift, I would place Trump's odds at 2:1 that he will win in 2020.

I'm not sure that's by far. By that metric Clinton was by far the favorite to win as her lowest quantitative odds on election day were 70%.

At the very least, I am convinced he will be a very formidable candidate in 2020 and is by far the favorite to win.

By far...??

He is the favorite because the Democrats have plenty of potential candidates candidates for President. So if president Trump has a 40% chance of  winning re-election (and that may be generous on his part) , the Democrats may have four potential nominees but nobody with more than a 15% chance of being nominated.  With that model, Trump is up 40-15 on every possible Democrat even if he has a 60% chance of losing the election.

But the point of having a primary is to minimize vote splitting. I assumed he was referring to general.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Gallup

Approve: 42% (+2)
Disapprove: 53% (-1)

Unexpected. We'll need though to see more data-points before drawing any conclusions.

Hasn't he been stable around that level, given the economy? Remember, Trump hasn't made any major policies and nothing has been signed. This is basically Trump alienating everyone but his core people and some Republicans who haven't the full force of the Trump incompetence.

First time AHCA came out, Trump lost 2-4%.

But probably we see the power of power of the 'clickbait' media.
First time it was about Trump being a looser and awful CBO score.
Now their narrative is about 'How Donald Trump won another unlikely victory' http://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/05/politics/trump-unlikely-victory-health-care/

Even so in fact the AHCA probably got worse after the amendments...

So I still expect Trump to fall a bit. Probably, after new CBO score.

[Virginiá]

Either way, unless this bill actually gets signed into law in some form that is somewhat as horrible as the House version, whatever effects it has on his approval ratings will likely be temporary and ultimately irrelevant. So far there doesn't seem to be any evidence that the threat of passage is enough to permanently peel away core supporters, so he'll just continue to hover around 40%, give or take.

Right now the only thing I believe that will bring Trump down to a new, lower baseline is time and a sustained inability to actually fix the primary problems his voters are facing, or some new major event like a recession. Eventually all these victories he fairly or unfairly claims will mean much less when people realize things aren't actually getting better for themselves. This may be a gentle slide downwards in approvals, and maybe it even takes longer than 1 term.

Who knows.

[cvparty]

Gallup

Approve: 42% (+2)
Disapprove: 53% (-1)

gasp

[Matty]

Here's a question: what if the economy continues to grow and unemployment remains low throughout his term? Would he be one of the few presidents who lost reelection with a stable economy?

[The_Doctor]

Here's a question: what if the economy continues to grow and unemployment remains low throughout his term? Would he be one of the few presidents who lost reelection with a stable economy?

The economy is the only reason he's sitting at 42% and not 30-35%. People are happy, so they tolerate his stupidity and bovine flatulence.

Anyhow -- how, pray tell, does the economy keep going and defy the laws of a business cycle? I'm just curious, what do I know about the laws of economics.