The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Matty]

Here's a question: what if the economy continues to grow and unemployment remains low throughout his term? Would he be one of the few presidents who lost reelection with a stable economy?

The economy is the only reason he's sitting at 42% and not 30-35%. People are happy, so they tolerate his stupidity and bovine flatulence.

Anyhow -- how, pray tell, does the economy keep going and defy the laws of a business cycle? I'm just curious, what do I know about the laws of economics.

There is no "law" that says cycles have to end after x amount of years. We really didn't have a real recession between 1993 and 2007.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

There is no "law" that says cycles have to end after x amount of years. We really didn't have a real recession between 1993 and 2007.

Pretty much that whole time frame was a big recession.

[Matty]

There is no "law" that says cycles have to end after x amount of years. We really didn't have a real recession between 1993 and 2007.

Pretty much that whole time frame was a big recession.

lol

[Hindsight was 2020]

Here's a question: what if the economy continues to grow and unemployment remains low throughout his term? Would he be one of the few presidents who lost reelection with a stable economy?

The economy is the only reason he's sitting at 42% and not 30-35%. People are happy, so they tolerate his stupidity and bovine flatulence.

Anyhow -- how, pray tell, does the economy keep going and defy the laws of a business cycle? I'm just curious, what do I know about the laws of economics.

There is no "law" that says cycles have to end after x amount of years. We really didn't have a real recession between 1993 and 2007.

Not true the economy got sluggish under Bush in the beginning of his term

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Not true the economy got sluggish under Bush in the beginning of his term

It also got really bad in the mid-'90s.

[heatcharger]

UNH poll of New Hampshire (4/24-5/4):

43% Approve
47% Disapprove

These guys took a hit last November, but yeah.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Here's a question: what if the economy continues to grow and unemployment remains low throughout his term? Would he be one of the few presidents who lost reelection with a stable economy?

The economy is the only reason he's sitting at 42% and not 30-35%. People are happy, so they tolerate his stupidity and bovine flatulence.

Anyhow -- how, pray tell, does the economy keep going and defy the laws of a business cycle? I'm just curious, what do I know about the laws of economics.

There is no "law" that says cycles have to end after x amount of years. We really didn't have a real recession between 1993 and 2007.

Those times are never coming back for a few reasons. The 90's and 2000's saw three things happen that led to a robust economic boom (two of which aren't happening 2017-2020).

1. Tech boom (although I will conceded that this is a continuing process that we're still going through).

2. Baby boomers (the largest generation in human history) entering their peak earning years from the 90's-2000's. Gen X is considerably smaller than boomers and have been the ones entering their own peak earning years starting right around the 2008 crisis. While millennials are larger than Xers, they will be too young to start entering their peak earning years from 2017-2020 since the oldest of them will barely be turning 40 in 2020.

3. The collapse of the Soviet Union and sudden opening of vast marketplaces in former soviet states for commerce and trade. This formerly untapped resource of economic growth has largely been utilized. And if anything, trade and economic openness will get worse with Trump given his actions and statements.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Gallup

40% ( -2)
53% (-/-)



Fixed.

[Virginiá]

Gallup

42% ( -2) 40% (-2)
53% (-/-)

[The_Doctor]

Here's a question: what if the economy continues to grow and unemployment remains low throughout his term? Would he be one of the few presidents who lost reelection with a stable economy?

The economy is the only reason he's sitting at 42% and not 30-35%. People are happy, so they tolerate his stupidity and bovine flatulence.

Anyhow -- how, pray tell, does the economy keep going and defy the laws of a business cycle? I'm just curious, what do I know about the laws of economics.

There is no "law" that says cycles have to end after x amount of years. We really didn't have a real recession between 1993 and 2007.

Actually we did have a recession between March and November 2001. You see, before I talked, I checked my facts. Recessions do happen once or more every ten years. You might not believe it was real but there was this thing called the dotcom bubble bursting. It, among other things, affected tax receipts and economic growth in 2001. It certainly hurt a number of people who invested in the stock markets in the 1990s.

Let me explain again and this time with emphasis.

The dotcom bubble bursting prior to the official recession might have helped Bush win in 2000. Once again you're just trying to do “Republicans always mean good times” and wave away the business cycle because you somehow believe there won't be a recession in the next four years because Trump is president.

As you were saying… ?

[Gass3268]

Morning Consult/Politico

44% Approve (-4)
48% Disapprove (+3)

This is Trump's worst result in this poll.

Source

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico

44% Approve (-4)
48% Disapprove (+3)

This is Trump's worst result in this poll.

Source

In two weeks, he's gone from 51/45 to 48/45 to 44/48 in this poll.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The downward trend + the comey firing could cause Trump to achieve his lowest approval yet by the end of this week.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Ipsos, May 4-8 compared to April 29-May 3

All Adults:
43 (-/-)
52 (-/-)

LV:
48 (+2)
48 (-3)


Rasmussen, MAY 7-9

LV:
47 (+1)
53 (-1)

[Gass3268]

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[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump tumbles in YouGov/Economist poll.

Approve: 41% (-2)
Dissaprove: 51% (+4)

Trump's worst numbers from this pollster.

[OneJ]

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[Gass3268]

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tbf, as IndyRep said in the Wisconsin Megathread, St. Norbert's isn't a great pollster.

[OneJ]

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tbf, as IndyRep said in the Wisconsin Megathread, St. Norbert's isn't a great pollster.

Aw man. I was getting too excited. I guess what we know so far is that Trump is underwater in Wisconsin from what we collected so far. However, I'm sure we need more data to support that assumption.

[Gass3268]

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tbf, as IndyRep said in the Wisconsin Megathread, St. Norbert's isn't a great pollster.

Aw man. I was getting too excited. I guess what we know so far is that Trump is underwater in Wisconsin from what we collected so far. However, I'm sure we need more data to support that assumption.

I don't doubt he's underwater, the question is it by single digits or twenty points?

[pbrower2a]

Polls by a newbie  from Florida and Ohio have some strange editorial commentary and prove to be outliers. There will be more polls, especially of those two potentially-critical states. No obvious problem presents itself  with this one:

UNH poll of New Hampshire (4/24-5/4):

43% Approve
47% Disapprove

These guys took a hit last November, but yeah.

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tbf, as IndyRep said in the Wisconsin Megathread, St. Norbert's isn't a great pollster.

Aw man. I was getting too excited. I guess what we know so far is that Trump is underwater in Wisconsin from what we collected so far. However, I'm sure we need more data to support that assumption.

A poll by Marquette University Law School a couple months ago had Trump approval around 42% in Wisconsin. The difference could be adults versus registered voters, or something like that. The 59% disapproval should scare the Hell out of Wisconsin Republicans.

This poll suggests that President Trump would lose by double digits in 2020 if he runs for re-election. At a minimum I see him losing the three states that are the difference between Hillary Clinton and he as President (MI, PA, and WI), with further possibility of losses that give the Democratic nominee at the least not-so-bare wins.

The amazing thing is that Scott Walker is holding his own despite Donald Trump as President.   When a Republican nominee for President is down by double digits in Wisconsin he stands to lose at least as badly as McCain in 2008.

This is all before the Comey kerfluffle.


Favorability:

*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.  


Still useful for some states -- but not likely for any states from hereon added to the map. Favorability is 'hope'; approval is 'achievement'. President Trump has quickly developed a clear record of achievements and failures.  


Approval:

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac Poll:

36% Approve (-4)
58% Disapprove (+2)

Source

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My favorite part is how every new Q poll the % that think's trump is intelligent drops.

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac asked people what word first came to mind when they thought about President Trump

[Wiz in Wis]

Gallup 5/10

40% (-/-)
53% (-/-)

[ajc0918]

Quinnipiac Poll:

36% Approve (-4)
58% Disapprove (+2)

Source

Oh wow

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