The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[publicunofficial]

So Rasmussen has Trump up 11 and Gallup has him down 10?

gallup has him even. there is a liar in this thread.

I think he just looked at the splash page and assumed the total was 100.

Someone on the last page said 45-55, I think.

Harry Enten (538, Democrat): 45-45 (https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/823591805564370945)

Nate Cohn (NY Times, Siena College, Democrat): 45-45 (https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/823591838036721664)

I assume they have premium accounts...

They must be total partisan hacks to assume it's not 55%

[publicunofficial]

Guys, I think we are reacting too quickly. The Trump Cult has been boxed in to support their man. That probably has him with a floor of 40% until their misgivings break the dam and he flounders. But for a while, he will probably stay at 40-45% for approval ratings.

Rasmussen is on some serious weed, though. But in general his approval ratings are all over the place. There's no convergence per se, yet, so it's early to say.

It's not his core Trump has to worry about. It's the more moderate 5-10% of voters who moved to Trump at the last minute.

[publicunofficial]

"You guys NEVER stop thinking about elections" - Regular poster on American election webforum

[publicunofficial]

Yeah, but this isn't 1982 anymore. The country is more polarized today.

An unpopular president can unite a nation.

That didn't happen under Obama, so color me skeptical. Look, maybe you guys are right and 2018, 2020 and 2022 will all be big Democratic landslide years just because Trump is in the White House and demographics are changing, but all I'm saying is don't be too surprised if Rs manage to pick up 4 or 5 seats in the Senate in 2018 or if they keep the House. You'd think after what happened in 2014 and 2016 (when people like Wiz in Wis predicted Democratic landslides), Democrats wouldn't be making overconfident predictions anymore. Oh well...

If I was polled, I'd definitely say "disapprove" but I still wouldn't vote for a Democratic congressional candidate.

Well if there's a D wave in 2020, surely 2022 would be an R year.

[publicunofficial]

Iowa - DMR/Selzer (2/6-2/9):

Approve 42%
Disapprove 49%

Not too good... I'm wondering what his ratings are in Wisconsin.

wow...Seltzer is the best pollster too

Had Trump winning Iowa in a blowout. Hard to call them "D-leaning"

[publicunofficial]

Somewhat related? Obamacare/ACA is polling net favorable for the first time ever. Last 5 polls were plurality in favor.

[publicunofficial]

What is the cause of these giant discrepancies? These are way more than the reasonable expectation of bias. During the campaign you would have three polls, one showed Hillary +3, another Hillary +10, and the third Trump +4. That was a string of polls that people could see some bias and litigate the polls to get closer to the truth. But a poll with President Trump up 10 in one and down 17 in another is an entirely different issue.

Rasmussen is using a Likely Voter screen. Which is a little nonsensical this far out.

Also that screen could very likely be "Did you vote in the 2014 elections?" which would skew it heavily in Trump's favor.

[publicunofficial]

The Dems will probably win the House in 2018 because Trump isn't very popular.

It really depends.  Trump is extremely popular among Republicans, and if he remains that way, his base could turn out in droves in 2018.  In that case, Dems might make some gains, but it's doubtful they'd be able to win back the house.  I think that prospect hinges on Trump's approval rating eroding at least somewhat with Republicans.

Well if he wasn't extremely popular among Republicans right now, that'd be a problem other Presidents never had at this point in their tenure. If he's still posting 85-90% approval among Republicans in May or mid-summer, then we can talk.

Also Democrats supported Obama through pretty much his entire presidency (Did his approval among D's ever drop below 85%?) and that didn't cause them to vote.

It's harder to get people to come and and vote to support/defend a cause than it is to get people to come out with the intent of putting a stop to something. When your party controls every branch of government, it gets just a little bit harder to get off the couch and go vote.

[publicunofficial]

Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398

Is this an average of all Trump counties or just the Midwest ones?

[publicunofficial]

Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398

Is this an average of all Trump counties or just the Midwest ones?

Here is the page where they define it. https://medium.com/echelon-indicators/got-a-question-for-trump-country-fa3157dd0113#.nq0797tw7

50/41 isn't particularly stellar considering how many of those are 60-70% Trump counties.

[publicunofficial]

LIBERULS WILL LOSE 100 SEATS BECAUSE REAL AMERICANS LOVE TRUMP AND HATE CUCK SJWS

[publicunofficial]

Washington-Elway poll.

Respondents disapprove of Trump's leadership: 56/40

Respondents believe is bring "the wrong type of changes": 46/34

[publicunofficial]

I mean given how fast things are moving, maybe this whole thing is a disaster by Sunday.

[publicunofficial]

Hockey fans are trash. Truly the worst of the bunch.

I'd argue certain segments of baseball fans are the absolute worst.

Namely Cardinals fans.

[publicunofficial]

Come on guys, let's not argue. We know that all sports fans are equally trash.

I can see how someone who grew up around Florida sports fans would think that.

Shouts out to Marlins Man.

[publicunofficial]

The man really just builds his support around stupid white guys

He represents everything alot of men wish we were.

Famous, on TV shows, in films, cameo appearances from Wrestlemania to The Jeffersons. More gorgeous women then most men will ever make love to in our lives. Money beyond belief. A gorgeous wife, beautiful successful surprisingly down to Earth children. Wonderful grandchildren. Mansions and casinos and private jets. Now he's topped it off by being the President of the United States.

Who WOULDN'T want to be Donald Trump? I sure as hell would love to be in his shoes.

Your support for Trump is a consequence of your own insecurities? What a surprise.

Sure? Why not? If African Americans can have "emotional investment" in Barack Obama, why can't I have it in Donald Trump?

When he had a Christmas time victory tour rally, after he defeated Hillary Clinton in December, he went on a mini-rant about how Time's "PERSON OF THE YEAR" used to be called "MAN OF THE YEAR". I stared at the CNN screen and thought, "Oh my God, it's me." LOL

There are far better white males in which to have an 'emotional investment' than Donald Trump. I prefer political leaders who act 60 (like Barack Obama) than those who act 20 (like Trump).   

I tried that with George W. Bush and John McCain and Mitt Romney but you guys all treated them just as badly.

Why are you liberals so mean to my favorite war criminal

So much for the tolerant left.