The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[KingSweden]

Poll was conducted Nov. 9-13.  They have him at 82% favorable among Republicans, 39% among Indies, and 10% among Democrats.  All are improvements over the last poll done pre-election.

Here are the fav/unfav numbers of past presidents immediately after their elections, as measured by Gallup:

Obama 68/27
GW Bush 59/36
Clinton 58/35

So all were at least +23.

He'll have a very short honeymoon

[KingSweden]

I think GOPers are dramatically overestimating their new superpowers. If they miscalculate and push Medicare privatization or Social Security Reform, combined with an already hyper-charged left, there's no reason to think they hold the House in 2018. They could also give a ton of cover to Ruby Red State Dems  in the Senate. 

I think Senate Rs like usual have a better read on this

[KingSweden]

New Quinnipiac poll is terrible for Trump's agenda:

Despite Donald Trump's victory, American voters are at odds with the president-elect on several key issues, agreeing with the U.S. Supreme Court Roe v. Wade decision 67 - 30 percent and opposing a wall along the Mexican border 55 - 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. 

In fact, support for illegal immigrants being allowed to stay in the U.S., with a path to citizenship, 60 percent, is higher than in any survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University Poll since the question was first asked four years ago. Today, another 12 percent of American voters say illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay, but not become citizens and 25 percent say they should be deported

American voters oppose other possible Trump initiatives:
67 - 29 percent against lowering taxes on the wealthy;
48 - 38 percent against removing regulations on businesses and corporations;
57 - 38 percent against making it easier for people to carry guns;
60 - 32 percent against "reducing taxes across the board even if it means increasing the deficit."

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2406

And he's *already* underwater before he's done any of this

[KingSweden]

As a perspective on how optimistic people could be about an incoming President:



Such an image of Herbert Hoover was well justified in 1928.

I mean on paper Hoover was a pretty impressive future President, based on his previous career

[KingSweden]

CBS national poll, conducted Dec. 9-13:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/most-think-trump-will-bring-change-but-most-also-think-hell-divide-the-nation/

fav/unfav %
Pence 30/25% for +5%
Romney 29/29% for +/-0
Trump 30/39% for -9%

Hence my theory that the GOP will eventually putsch out Trump for Pence, and that when they do they will make it work out okay for them

[KingSweden]

Anyone wanna start placing bets on when Mike Pence commences Operation 25th Amendment?

[KingSweden]

Mike Pence? At some point (erratic or criminal, as in "war crimes" behavior, or blatantly un-Constitutional), and we might see the Joint Chiefs of Staff take action for cause. If Mike Pence is complicit, then the process that takes our Donald Trump also takes out Mike Pence.

Only one of these states (Virginia) is a legitimate swing state. 39% favorability does not reliably translate into approval... but don't count on him getting anything much above 45%, which is just about what he got. This is a very flawed President by historical standards, and he is already doing very unpopular things.

Don't fool yourself: a military coup would be nasty. Think of Pinochet overthrowing Allende in Chile. That nasty. 

I meant Pence convincing half of Cabinet to declare Trump unfit. I doubt (and hope) the Joint Chiefs don't take action. I can't imagine Mattis or Kelly would like kindly on any Trump craziness (and apparently they are very tight wth Dunford) so they may go along with Pence in such a case

[KingSweden]

If we had a recall process for Presidents (which we don't), do you think he'd be recalled?

Depends on what for. Recalls have a way of backfiring (see: 2012 in Wisconsin)

[KingSweden]

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That's a short honeymoon...

[KingSweden]

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That's a short honeymoon...

I doubt that there was a honeymoon.

I think that Donald Trump is as close to the bottom as he can go, as America is divided into two nearly-equal political universes that believe in diametric opposites. Republicans are going to be proved wrong or Democrats will be made permanently irrelevant.

This would be a great four years to work abroad.

I have dual citizenship, but I've lived in America my whole life (was born here) and I'm not giving up on her. I wince at the "I'll just leave!" Thinking.

Though I don't think my wife would want to live in Europe either, so there's that haha

[KingSweden]

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That's a short honeymoon...

I doubt that there was a honeymoon.

I think that Donald Trump is as close to the bottom as he can go, as America is divided into two nearly-equal political universes that believe in diametric opposites. Republicans are going to be proved wrong or Democrats will be made permanently irrelevant.

This would be a great four years to work abroad.

I have dual citizenship, but I've lived in America my whole life (was born here) and I'm not giving up on her. I wince at the "I'll just leave!" Thinking.

Though I don't think my wife would want to live in Europe either, so there's that haha

Why not?

Neither of us have ever lived in Sweden. I speak the language, she does not. Would be hard for her to get work, etc

[KingSweden]

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That's a short honeymoon...

I doubt that there was a honeymoon.

I think that Donald Trump is as close to the bottom as he can go, as America is divided into two nearly-equal political universes that believe in diametric opposites. Republicans are going to be proved wrong or Democrats will be made permanently irrelevant.

This would be a great four years to work abroad.

I have dual citizenship, but I've lived in America my whole life (was born here) and I'm not giving up on her. I wince at the "I'll just leave!" Thinking.

Though I don't think my wife would want to live in Europe either, so there's that haha

Why not?

Neither of us have ever lived in Sweden. I speak the language, she does not. Would be hard for her to get work, etc

Seems still like something to do if you do have to become a refugee...but maybe only then?

Sure in a worst case scenario. I have hope for America yet

[KingSweden]

Interesting his numbers are weak in Midwest. I've always seen that as his best region

Numbers down South shouldn't be surprising

[KingSweden]

Quinnipiac poll from 1/5-1/9:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his responsibilities as president-elect?

Approve - 37%
Disapprove - 51%

Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Favorable - 37%
Unfavorable - 51%

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2415

Ouch!!

[KingSweden]

These are Bush '06 level numbers

[KingSweden]

Either the polls are wrong, again, or people have lost their minds. So, based on this numbers, 20% of Trump voters disapprove him... OK.

Pretty much every Republican/conservative I know either didn't vote, voted for Johnson, or voted for Trump but despise him.

Maybe I'm in cloistered circles, but I've never once met an enthusiastic Trump supporter, and I lived in Spokane for 4 years

[KingSweden]

He or Mike Pence might need a whites-only electorate to win re-election.

Fasten your seatbelts. We are in for a bumpy ride.

I'm not big a Mike Pence fan but he seems like he could parlay his religiousness into earning *some* crossover minority votes

[KingSweden]

North Carolina (PPP): -5 (44/49)

A bit worse than I imagined, honestly, but not terrible compared to some states

[KingSweden]

Fox came out with their poll today, can't find a link yet, but Trump'a approval is only at 37%z

Fox is not a bad pollster. That's... not good

[KingSweden]

So yes, most Americans like Trump, get over it.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html

Favorable average: 41.8%
Unfavorable average: 49.9%

Most Americans don't like Trump. This was true before election day and after election day. Even if you wanted, for your "polls were wrong" factor, you could tack on a few extra favorable points and he would still be more unpopular than popular. Most national polls were simply not off by enough here to make a case that he is actually more liked than not.

Frankly, the fact that you have to sit here and cherry pick polls to prove people like him should be a red flag on its own.

And keep in mind RCP self selects polls

[KingSweden]

YouGov/Economist:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/826847086356332545

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 44 (+9!)
Undecided 14 (-10)

Strong Approve 25
Strong Disapprove 33

Trump down in every poll we've gotten this week, compared to last week.

Why does RCP list this as 47-45 approve? I clicked on their link and it shows a PDF with 44-43 disapproval as well, so it's not a different poll.

Because RCP

[KingSweden]

lol

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https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/826949540183957504

Haha

[KingSweden]

So, most people who disapprove of Trump already want to impeach him?  That's insane.

That's a... pretty big jump.

President Pence seems more and more likely every day.

[KingSweden]

So, most people who disapprove of Trump already want to impeach him?  That's insane.

That's a... pretty big jump.

President Pence seems more and more likely every day.

25th or straight up impeachment? I do think when impeachment nears 45% the GOP will start fleeing. But I don't anticipate impeachment or 25th until past the 2018 midterms because the GOP is far more vulnerable in 2020 in the Senate.  

Nah. Weren't Bush's over 50%? Dems had the Senate and they never tried

Yeah, but Bush had been in office much longer

[KingSweden]

NC (High Point University)

Adults: 36-52 disapprove
RV only: 36-51 disapprove

HPU showed Hillary winning NC by 1%.

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2017/02/50memoA.pdf

This looks less dubious than that FL poll, if only because they include undecideds