The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Fusionmunster]

https://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM4_26_SCALE/type/smallest/dates/20161001-20161118/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

51%
49%

I take issue with any poll adding up to 100%, but it should be stated thats:

51% - Unfavorable
49% - Favorable

[Fusionmunster]

If the Democrats can't figure out how to keep Trump's ratings fairly negative, they should really just disband.

The American peoples views are beyond what the democratic party controls.

[Fusionmunster]

He is probably at 70% unfavorable in CA, so that skews the numbers but doesn't really impact his reelection chances.

Even if there were some truth to that, it wouldn't skew his national numbers that much. Trump is underwater and its only downhill from here.  

[Fusionmunster]

He is probably at 70% unfavorable in CA, so that skews the numbers but doesn't really impact his reelection chances.

Even if there were some truth to that, it wouldn't skew his national numbers that much. Trump is underwater and its only downhill from here.  

Would you be saying the same thing if Clinton had won? Not saying you're wrong, but it's too early to tell that for sure. Anyway, this is all not surprising since he almost certainly would have lost to any other Democrat. Even many Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of him.

Absolutely. I was resigned to the fact that Hillary, at best, was going to break even on her favorable if democrats were lucky during the honeymoon period. I also knew Hillary would be back to the low 40s by 2018 and republicans would probably get to 60 seats in the senate. And most importantly, I think she would have lost re-election.

[Fusionmunster]

It really has to be said that there is no precedent for an incoming president to improve all that much after their "honeymoon" period. Trump is getting good press and benefit of the doubt right now, there are no major crises and the GOP is united.

In other words... he's got everything going for him I can think of and he's still underwater.

This might be the single most delusional, dumbest thing I've ever read on this site, ever.

Ever.

Trump could be getting good press and the benefit of the doubt if he were handling the transition competently, but he's not. He's pissed away any goodwill acquired from his victory with his response to the CIA fiasco and his choice of cabinet picks, not to mention his continued twitter usage. All preventable damage.

[Fusionmunster]

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That's a short honeymoon...

I doubt that there was a honeymoon.

I think that Donald Trump is as close to the bottom as he can go, as America is divided into two nearly-equal political universes that believe in diametric opposites. Republicans are going to be proved wrong or Democrats will be made permanently irrelevant.

This would be a great four years to work abroad.

I have dual citizenship, but I've lived in America my whole life (was born here) and I'm not giving up on her. I wince at the "I'll just leave!" Thinking.

Though I don't think my wife would want to live in Europe either, so there's that haha

Why not?

Neither of us have ever lived in Sweden. I speak the language, she does not. Would be hard for her to get work, etc

Seems still like something to do if you do have to become a refugee...but maybe only then?

Uhm....

Trump is president, not King. There's only so much damage he can actually do in 4 years.

Still, it is nice to have the ability to "return to Israel" if I ever so desired.

[Fusionmunster]

At Rasmussen, Trump starts with the following approval rating:

56% approve
44% disapprove

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Republicans and 55% of unaffiliated voters approve of the job Trump is doing. Seventy percent (70%) of Democrats disapprove.

The latest figures include 38% of all likely voters who Strongly Approve of the way Trump is performing and 36% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of +2 (see trends).

Regular updates are posted Monday through Friday at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).

When Barack Obama was sworn in as president on January 20, 2009, 67% of likely voters approved of his job performance; 31% disapproved.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_jan20

See, I told you guys this stuff about him starting at 40% approval was utter nonsense. 56% is a strong position, and whilst not the 67% Obama, we must remember that the 67% was mostly fake and dissipated after a few months. A good presidency would mean that Trump takes a generally upward trajectory like Reagan and Bill Clinton.

Rasmussen is also one of the more accurate pollsters of this election, as much as I hate to use the term "accurate" when relating to polls these days. They also offer one of the most regular approval polling, from Monday to Friday.

Lol.

[Fusionmunster]

Four days into his Presidency and now, more people disapprove of the job Trump is doing. I don't think that's ever happened before. Gallup now has 45% approving Trump, 46% disapproving.

It was better than expected. Four days into trump and it's already amazing. Unexpected for me. If this continues I'm all on board for 2020

At the moment, Trump is at the bare minimum to have a chance at re-election. He has no room to slip, I would not call that amazing.

[Fusionmunster]

At the moment, Trump is at the bare minimum to have a chance at re-election. He has no room to slip

Suuuuure.

Your confidence is misplaced. 45/45 are not good numbers for a newly elected president, they are not good numbers for an incumbent running for re-election either. You can plug your ears and pretend Trump is in good shape, but you'd just be lying to yourself.

[Fusionmunster]

Interesting ...

All recent polls seem to suggest that Democrats are on the losing side of the issue of Trump's travel ban.

This thing is highly popular with Republicans and Indies actually.

The issue most are having is with legal residents getting stopped/deported. Trump is on the right side of public opinion partially, however, it gets more complicated when you include green card holders.

[Fusionmunster]

Yeah, but this isn't 1982 anymore. The country is more polarized today.

An unpopular president can unite a nation.

[Fusionmunster]

Interesting that Americans say their 3 most important issues are:

* the economy
* healthcare
* terrorism

And on these 3 issues, Trump has the following approvals:

* the economy (52-37)
* healthcare (47-43)
* terrorism (50-38)

Yet, overall he has a 46-50 approval.

Thats not how percentages work though.

[Fusionmunster]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/833060939578617857

45 is still bad, and probably going to get worse.

[Fusionmunster]

I think that Iowa poll will show something like -7 for Trump. A lot of voters there didn't really like Trump, but rather just hated Clinton.

Not bad.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2017/02/14/iowa-poll-trumps-approval-rating-underwater-iowans/97856274/

Its not good either.

[Fusionmunster]

Granted, it's only been about a month....but say his approval is the same or worse throughout the 2020 election.

Has there ever been an incumbent president with similar approval ratings who won reelection?

Even Bush jr. was above water in October and November of 2004. Still, people vote Trump even though they disapprove so I dont know.

[Fusionmunster]

I wonder if the entirety of this presidency will be like this:

Trump says or does something incredibly stupid. Polls drop for a week or so. Trump recovers in the polls. Trump says or does something incredibly stupid again.

Exactly like 2016.

[Fusionmunster]

Hell with these numbers, Hillary could beat his ass.

Low favorables are one thing. Low approvals are horrible.

Your as delusional as you were in 2016.

Thats funny coming from you. Do you not remember your behavior here during the primaries?

[Fusionmunster]

Who cares what the polls say

We all care, thats why we're on a forum centered around polls.

[Fusionmunster]

According to Gallup, the two presidents who needed the shortest period of time to drop to a 35% approval rating for the first time (prior to Trump) were Harry S. Truman and Ronald Reagan. Truman needed 17 months in office, Reagan 24 months.

The presidents who never dropped to 35% in their entire time in the White House were Eisenhower, Kennedy, Ford, Clinton, and Obama.

The only candidate that became president with favorability rating under 35%:
Trump 

While true, he started his presidency in the mid 40%.

[Fusionmunster]

Also in the CBS number, 57% support Syrian strike

Do they have a party id breakdown of that? It seems like an issue dividing both democrats and republicans.

[Fusionmunster]

Wow, an outright majority support regime change in Syria? I guess the Iraq War really is history.

It doesnt say support actually invading Syria though.

Wow, an outright majority support regime change in Syria? I guess the Iraq War really is history.

America is turning into the villian like in a movie but this time it's reality.

Spare us the dramatics.

[Fusionmunster]

What is the borderline between noise and significant movement?

A 4 point swing?

In terms of a daily tracking poll, its noise. Trump has been at or around 40% for over a week, 41% is within that ballpark.