The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[henster]

The Fox poll is definitely a Friday news dump, how many of their viewers are ever going to see this poll with all the inauguration coverage.

[henster]

What does RAS consider likely voters and why are they polling them in January?

[henster]

Ras has shown the same 52/48 split since last Friday, they have never shown him with a negative JA.

[henster]

RAS has Trump at (55-45).

[henster]

Somehow signing a few EO means he's done more than Obama did in 8 years according to some of his supporters. And repealing the coal stream rule will save 70,000 coal jobs that don't exist but whatever.

[henster]

He can hold over his base for so long with media attacks and nativist immigration rhetoric before they get restless. I have read about a factory in IN shutting down and jobs shipped to Mexico and nothing from Trump and coal plant closing in OH/AZ. At some point parts of his base will realize he is not delivering for them.

[henster]

I'm wondering how long he can keep his base happy with no legislation passed, besides the new immigration EO what else is left?

[henster]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 2-6:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-ab44-db00-af7a-bfe51b920001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-ab42-dd25-a75e-ffdf5b800001

approve 50%
disapprove 45%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +4
Northeast: +/-0
South: +6
West: +6

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +16
blacks: -47
Hispanics: -14

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +6
$50-100k: +2
over $100k: +6

5% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

This poll is 81% white, since when was the electorate 81% white?

[henster]

Morning Consult now filing the role of Rasmussen, has Trump JA at 52/43 and Americans approving of the AHCA 46/34. They have never shown him with a negative JA. Does anything in demographic crosstabs look off to you?


http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-cf3b-db68-a97b-dffbdcb40000

[henster]

There seems to be always seem to be one poll with positive JA for Trumpsters to cite, last time it was Rasmussen this time its Morning Consult. I bet he will talk about the MC poll any day now.

[henster]

Morning Consult seems to have oversampled rural areas. The breakdown is 43/31/23 suburban/rural/urban. Rural areas are only 17% of the electorate according to exit polls.

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-cf3b-db68-a97b-dffbdcb40000

[henster]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 16-19:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-f30d-d373-a17b-ffbf89cd0000
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-f30c-dc62-a1db-f3ff026b0001

approve 50%
disapprove 44%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +10
Northeast: -12
South: +15
West: +/-0

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +15
blacks: -48
Hispanics: +4

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +8
$50-100k: +4
over $100k: +1

7% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

Still seems to be over sampling rural areas.

[henster]

Do people still think KXL will reduce gas prices?

[henster]

Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398

[henster]

Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398

Is this an average of all Trump counties or just the Midwest ones?

Here is the page where they define it. https://medium.com/echelon-indicators/got-a-question-for-trump-country-fa3157dd0113#.nq0797tw7

[henster]

Ds path to the majority may result from successive gains in '18 & '20 rather than taking it all back in one cycle. Maybe 15-20 seats in 2018 and another 10 or so in 2020.

[henster]

There has been surprisingly very few polls of Pennsylvania since the election.

[henster]

Hockey fans would be predominately Midwestern mostly MN, WI, MI, PA.

[henster]

Obama JA usually slumped in the summer I wonder if the same thing will happen for Trump.

[henster]

http://triblive.com/politics/politicalheadlines/12285424-74/trumps-approval-rating-soars-among-voters-polled-in-western-pennsylvania

This poll conveniently excludes Allegheny County.

?

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Here is pdf

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/469804111621898454-f-m-poll-release-may-2017.pdf

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The only increase in polling noted is Trump "soaring" up 6 points in Allegheny County--to a whopping 31%.

This is the trip, people. Grumps, a machine that you would let yourself get trolled that easily by the biggest rag in the Northeast East.

F&M polls are the worst because they ask Fair/Poor and Excellent/Good instead of the simple Approve/Disapprove. 'Fair' could mean that the person thinks he's doing an OK job and approves but its lumped in with 'Poor' and interpreted as disapproval. So 37% is combined Excellent/Good but what is the Fair #? His JA could be 57%.