The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Mr. Morden]

Gallup has what I think is the first post-election poll of Trump's favorability rating, showing a bounce for him (but still in the red, well behind where previous newly elected presidents have been):

http://www.gallup.com/poll/197576/trump-favorability-trails-presidents-elect.aspx

[Mr. Morden]

Poll was conducted Nov. 9-13.  They have him at 82% favorable among Republicans, 39% among Indies, and 10% among Democrats.  All are improvements over the last poll done pre-election.

Here are the fav/unfav numbers of past presidents immediately after their elections, as measured by Gallup:

Obama 68/27
GW Bush 59/36
Clinton 58/35

So all were at least +23.

[Mr. Morden]

Yougov has a new poll out too:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/j20pkfe7a0/econToplines.pdf

fav/unfav %:
Hillary Clinton 43/52% for -9%
Donald Trump 41/53% for -12%

That’s a bit of an improvement from the pre-election #s for both candidates.

Also in the poll, they asked people who either voted 3rd party or did not vote: “If you had to choose between them, who would you have preferred to have win the election?”:

Clinton 41%
Trump 36%
no preference 23%

Other questions…

Do you think the election was rigged?
yes 20%
no 55%
not sure 25%

How good a president do you think Donald Trump will be?
excellent 17%
good 23%
fair 22%
poor 38%

How qualified is Donald Trump to be president?
very qualified 19%
somewhat qualified 22%
slightly qualified 14%
not qualified 45%

[Mr. Morden]

Poll: Trump's popularity soars after election (POLITICO/Morning Consult poll)

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-popular-poll-231694

Went from 37/61 to 46/46

Obama went from 50/48 to 54/43

More from that poll:

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/161108_crosstabs_POLITICO_v2_KD-2.pdf

fav/unfav %:
Pence 47/34% for +13%
Giuliani 42/34% for +8%
Paul Ryan 38/37% for +1%
Trump 46/46% for +/-0
Keith Ellison 16/16% for +/-0
Democrats in Congress 42/43% for -1%
Schumer 23/24% for -1%
Sessions 18/20% for -2%
Priebus 21/26% for -5%
Republicans in Congress 39/46% for -7%
Breitbart 16/27% for -11%
Steve Bannon 18/30% for -12%
McConnell 21/34% for -13%
Pelosi 30/45% for -15%

Trump favorability margin by region:
Midwest: -6
Northeast: 0
South: +6
West: -7

Trump favorability margin by race:
whites: +8
blacks: -56
Hispanics: -28

Trump favorability margin by income:
under $50k: -5
$50-100k: +6
over $100k: 0

[Mr. Morden]

Trump approval  44/46

Favorability, not approval.

[Mr. Morden]

The gender gap in that Quinnipiac poll is about the same as it was in the election exit poll.

men
favorable 50%
unfavorable 39%

women
favorable 39%
unfavorable 53%

Also, fav/unfav %:
Pence 42/31% for +11%
Melania Trump 34/23% for +11%

[Mr. Morden]

This isn’t favorability exactly, but Pew’s poll has some numbers on Trump:

http://www.people-press.org/2016/11/21/low-marks-for-major-players-in-2016-election-including-the-winner/









13% of Trump’s own voters are “uneasy” about Trump’s election, while 5% are “scared”:





Voters were mostly dissatisfied with their choices for the first time since this poll was asked:

[Mr. Morden]

Nov 29th YouGov favorablity rating:

Unfavorable - 54%
Favorable - 40%
DK - 6%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9ufc2hsirx/tabs_OP_Recount_20161130.pdf

They have….

Trump 40/54% for -14%
Clinton 39/55% for -16%
Jill Stein 19/43% for -24%

Compared to their last poll (taken right after the election), Clinton’s popularity is down.  Trump is down too, albeit just slightly (-14, as compared to the previous -12).

Trump favorability margin by region:
Midwest: -14
Northeast: -10
South: -8
West: -25

Trump favorability margin by race:
whites: +8
blacks: -75
Hispanics: -33

Trump favorability margin by income:
under $50k: -16
$50-100k: -6
over $100k: -14

[Mr. Morden]

26% of Americans are out of their minds. Sad to see that Hillary number so high on the belief it was rigged. But lol at the 12% of Trump people thinking it was rigged. Must have been those 3 million illegals that voted .

It's not clear to me what people mean when they tell a pollster that they think the election was "rigged".  The way Trump was using the phrase during the campaign, he sometimes just meant that the media was biased against him, which is distinct from there being a conspiracy to not count the votes properly.  Someone who doesn't think the electoral college is fair might also say it was "rigged" in that sense--that the person who received the most votes didn't win.  Which again, is distinct from thinking that there was a conspiracy to tamper with the vote tallies.

[Mr. Morden]

Sienna College poll of New York, conducted Nov. 27-Dec. 1:

https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY1216_Crosstabs.pdf

fav/unfav %:
Schumer 67/23% for +44%
Obama 63/33% for +30%
Gillibrand 51/22% for +29%
Cuomo 56/36% for +20%
Pence 41/40% for +1%
de Blasio 35/45% for -10%
Trump 41/53% for -12%

[Mr. Morden]

Quinnipiac poll of New Jersey, conducted Nov. 28-Dec. 4:

Trump fav/unfav %:
38/51% for -13%

Huge gender gap…
among men: 49/39% for +10%
among women: 29/61% for -32%

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll, conducted Dec. 1-2:

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/161201_topline_Politico_v3_AP-2.pdf
https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/161201_crosstabs_Politico_v3_AP-1-4.pdf

Trump 48% favorable 48% unfavorable

Trump favorability margin by region:
Midwest: 0
Northeast: -4
South: +10
West: -8

Trump favorability margin by race:
whites: +9
blacks: -49
Hispanics: -16

Trump favorability margin by income:
under $50k: -4
$50-100k: +11
over $100k: +1

9% of Clinton voters and 29% of Johnson/Stein/McMullin voters have a favorable opinion of Trump.  5% of Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of him.

[Mr. Morden]

First one: New Jersey. Quinnipiac.

President-elect Donald Trump remains unpopular in New Jersey, with a negative 38 - 51 percent favorability rating. (Obama up 56-35 in approval... guess what sort of Presidential nominee the Democrats will be able to win with in 2020?)

https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2408

Blank map. Favorability:

Probably useful until March.

Approval:

Even -- white



Red, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40% 
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%
Blue, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

You forgot the Sienna College poll of New York:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252808.msg5421867#msg5421867

And you also colored in the wrong map.  This is favorability, not job approval rating.

[Mr. Morden]

GWU/Battleground national poll, conducted Nov. 28 - Dec. 1:

https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/sites/mediarelations.gwu.edu/files/GWBattlegroundPoll61-questionnaire.pdf
https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/sites/mediarelations.gwu.edu/files/GWBattlegroundPoll61-crosstabs.pdf

Pence 44/37% for +7%
Trump 45/49% for -4%
Hillary Clinton 42/55% for -13%

They also have tiny subsamples on the largest states (fewer than 100 people, except for CA, so the MoE is huge):

Trump fav/unfav% in…
FL: 59/33% for +26%
TX: 52/44% for +8%
NY: 42/56% for -14%
CA: 34/58% for -24%

[Mr. Morden]

Pew Research: Low approval of Trump’s transition

Here’s the full poll:

http://www.people-press.org/2016/12/08/low-approval-of-trumps-transition-but-outlook-for-his-presidency-improves/

They have Trump’s favorability margin at -21:









Pence also (narrowly) underwater:



Also interesting to me in this poll….the gap between Democrats and Republicans on whether there’s a relationship between Islam and violence is wider than it’s ever been:

[Mr. Morden]

PPP national poll, conducted Dec. 6-7:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_120916.pdf

fav/unfav %:
Trump 43/51% for -8%

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll, conducted Dec. 8-11:
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000158-f518-def3-a559-ff9e75e10001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000158-f51b-d8c9-ab5a-ffbf17d60001

Trump 45% favorable 51% unfavorable

Trump favorability margin by region:
Midwest: +2
Northeast: -15
South: -1
West: -18

Trump favorability margin by race:
whites: +4
blacks: -62
Hispanics: -23

Trump favorability margin by income:
under $50k: -9
$50-100k: -4
over $100k: -2

[Mr. Morden]

Fox News national poll, conducted Dec. 11-13:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/12/14/fox-news-poll-121416/

fav/unfav %:
Biden 56/33% for +23%
Obama 57/42% for +15%
G. W. Bush 54/41% for +13%
Pence 42/37% for +5%
Romney 45/45% for +/-0
Melania Trump 37/37% for +/-0
D. Trump 47/51% for -4%
H. Clinton 42/56% for -14%

Trump fav/unfav % demos:
men: +16
women: -22
whites: +10
white college degree: -9
white no college degree: +20
non-whites: -45

[Mr. Morden]

Yougov/Economist national poll, conducted Dec. 10-13:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ro9rimrce9/econTabReport.pdf

fav/unfav %:
Sanders 56/32% for +24%
Biden 51/32% for +19%
Obama 53/43% for +10%
Pence 41/38% for +3%
Warren 34/34% for +/-0
Trump 42/50% for -8%
Clinton 40/54% for -14%

[Mr. Morden]

Quinnipiac poll of Virginia, conducted Dec. 6-11:

https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2412

Trump
favorable 39%
unfavorable 53%

[Mr. Morden]

McClatchy/Marist national poll, conducted Dec. 1-9:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us161201/Trump_McClatchy-Marist%20Poll_December%202016.pdf

Trump
favorable 43%
unfavorable 52%

by region…
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -10
South: -5
West: -27

[Mr. Morden]

McClatchy/Marist national poll, conducted Dec. 1-9:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us161201/Trump_McClatchy-Marist%20Poll_December%202016.pdf

Trump
favorable 43%
unfavorable 52%

by region…
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -10
South: -5
West: -27

I find it interesting how the West hates him so much.

That's not interesting at all => CA.

I'd say it's interesting.  Before Trump came around, it was rare to see regional polls that showed a national Republican candidate (or president) doing worse in the West than the Northeast.  Sure, there's California, but the Rocky Mountain states moderate "the West" enough that it's not as far left as the Northeast.  But for Trump, in pretty much every single poll, he's in worse shape in the West than the Northeast.

[Mr. Morden]

CBS national poll, conducted Dec. 9-13:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/most-think-trump-will-bring-change-but-most-also-think-hell-divide-the-nation/

fav/unfav %
Pence 30/25% for +5%
Romney 29/29% for +/-0
Trump 30/39% for -9%

[Mr. Morden]

NBC/WSJ national poll, conducted Dec. 12-15:

https://www.scribd.com/document/334645321/161300-NBCWSJ-December-Poll-Final

fav/unfav %:
Obama 52/36% for +16%
Pence 37/29% for +8%
Ryan 26/27% for -1%
Trump 40/46% for -6%
H. Clinton 32/54% for -22%

[Mr. Morden]

Yougov/Economist national poll, conducted Dec. 17-20:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ljv2ohxmzj/econTabReport.pdf

fav/unfav %:
Biden 48/34% for +14%
Obama 53/42% for +9%
Pence 39/36% for +3%
Trump 45/49% for -4%
Clinton 40/54% for -14%

7% of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Trump.  9% of Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

Meanwhile, 5% of Trump voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.  16% of Clinton voters have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton.