The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Sorenroy]

Not quite the same thing, but Public Policy Polling's California poll out today showed that on a 33-59 margin, Californians disapprove of the way Trump has handled the transition.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/CaliforniaPollJanuary2017.pdf

[Sorenroy]

Just a quick question:

If Trump's approval is 45-55 (-10%) and the margin of error is 3%, does that mean that both numbers have a MoE of 3% (between 42-58 (-16%) and 48-52 (-4%)), or does it mean that the difference has a MoE of 3% (between 43.5-56.5 (-13%) and 46.5-53.5 (-7%)). I assume it's the first but I'm not sure.

[Sorenroy]

...I don't think Obama EVER had a net -15% approval rating from Gallup.

Obama had a net -15% or higher 33 times according to Gallup with his lowest at -18% which he got only once in a poll done between October 8th and October 10th 2014 (his highest was right at the begging where he polled at +56% for the first two polls).

Obama never went below 40% in approval or above 55% in disapproval.

That is somewhat false. Gallup polled Obama under 40% approval 39 times and above 55% disapproval six times in his two terms. The lowest approval he had was 38% (which he had eight times) and the highest disapproval he had was 57% (just once). You're not that far off, but the specific numbers you gave are wrong.

http://pollingreport.com/obama_job1a.htm (at the top of the page you can see a link to the rest of the polls)

That being said, Trump has been polling between 50 to 60 percent lower than Obama. If that holds up, Trump will fall lower than Obama ever was (to -19%) in his first 66 days or less.

[Sorenroy]

Morning Consult/Politico
Trump Approval Rating: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/poll-trump-democrats-elizabeth-warren-235026

Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 45%

Looks like it's actually 49% approve, 45% disapprove:

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/170202_topline_Politico_v2_AG.pdf

Looking down the sheet, I found 49%-46% (I searched "have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Donald Trump" using ctrl-f).

[Sorenroy]

Gallup (2/13-2/15):

Approve 40%
Disapprove 54% (+1)

Change from -13% to -14%

[Sorenroy]

Interesting that Americans say their 3 most important issues are:

* the economy
* healthcare
* terrorism

And on these 3 issues, Trump has the following approvals:

* the economy (52-37)
* healthcare (47-43)
* terrorism (50-38)

Yet, overall he has a 46-50 approval.

Does that mean that people who said economy was their most important issue gave him an overall 52-37, or does that mean that he got a 52-37 on the economy?

[Sorenroy]

Gallup:
38/56

Damn

As I posted on this thread before, the lowest Obama ever dropped in his full eight years was to -18%. Trump has managed to do the same in his first 30 days.

[Sorenroy]

Gallup: 40/55

Looks like it was just noise.

[Sorenroy]

Gallup (2/19/17-2/21/17):

Approve 42% (+1)
Disapprove 52% (-1)

Change from -12% to -10%


Also, this is the first time that Trump is less than 50% behind Obama in net approval (Obama was at +37% at this point in his presidency).

[Sorenroy]

Gallup (2/27/17-3/1/17):

Approve 43% (±0)
Disapprove 51% (-1)

Change from -9% to -8%

This is the highest he's polled in about a month*.

*In terms of net approval.

[Sorenroy]

God, I can't wait to see what happens to his numbers once the polls cover this healthcare fiasco.

This is something for another thread, but it seems like the worst of both worlds, where he didn't pull through for the Republicans, but hasn't done enough for the Democrats to warrant any increased support from them either.

[Sorenroy]

Ipsos March 23-27 vs March 18-22

All Adults, 1700 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/
45 (-1)
49 (+1)

LV, 500 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/LIKELY:1
42 (-9)
51 (+6)

So, just to be clear, while all adults swung two points against Trump from their last poll, likely voters swung by 15. Am I missing something here? Basic Maths^TM means that non-likely voters swung by almost three and a half points (3.41667) for Trump to counterbalance the LV swing. WTF?

[Sorenroy]

Ipsos March 23-27 vs March 18-22

All Adults, 1700 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/
45 (-1)
49 (+1)

LV, 500 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/LIKELY:1
42 (-9)
51 (+6)

So, just to be clear, while all adults swung two points against Trump from their last poll, likely voters swung by 15. Am I missing something here? Basic Maths^TM means that non-likely voters swung by almost three and a half points (3.41667) for Trump to counterbalance the LV swing. WTF?

Perhaps those who despise Trump but were otherwise unlikely to vote have been determined to be LVs, thus leaving the rest of the non-LV group more Trump-friendly?

Even so, I can't see how that accounts for a 18 point difference between LVs and non-LVs.

[Sorenroy]

No change for Gallup: 38/56

Actually his disapproval went up a point.

Oh I misread the graph thanks

Not sure what y'all are talking about. He is at 38/57 no change:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx

[Sorenroy]

Gallup (4/03/17-4/05/17):

Approve 41% (-1)
Disapprove 53% (+1)

Source

[Sorenroy]

It will be very interesting to see what the missile strike in Syria does to Trump's image. Can't imagine it will be bad.

[Sorenroy]

Gallup (4/09/17-4/11/17):

Approve 41% (+1)
Disapprove 52% (-2)

Source

[Sorenroy]

Gallup (4/11/17-4/13/17):

Approve 40% (±0)
Disapprove 55% (+1)

Source

[Sorenroy]

Trump back under 40% approval per Gallup....only 39% Approve today

To be a little more specific:

Gallup (4/12/17-4/14/17):

Approve 39% (-1)
Disapprove 55% (±0)

Source

[Sorenroy]

Obama's fall of the approvals was mostly due Reps and Rep-leaning Inds. Trump's numbers among Dems and Dem-leaning Inds were awful from the beginning => not so many voters to lose. I see him oscillating between 35-45% if nothing extraordinary happens (like recession, sending troops&problems with NC or awful healthcare reform).

Did I miss something? What do you mean by "problems"?

[Sorenroy]

Figuring that approvals stick at 40% until early 2020 before President Trump starts campaigning, he could end up with 46% of the total vote in November 2020. Of course that would ensure that the next president will be a Democrat, right?

WRONG! Donald Trump won a mere 45.94% of the popular vote in 2016 -- he simply won the 'right' votes. An even shift of 0.35%  would have not been enough to cause him to lose both Michigan and Pennsylvania and the election. If the states fall as they did in 2016, then President Trump could be re-elected with as little as 45.5% of the popular vote and barely win.

I always thought that the +6% number had to do with the head to head numbers, not the general numbers. Trump may have only gotten 46% in the general election, but take out the third party votes and he went 49-51.

[Sorenroy]

Quinnipiac Poll:

36% Approve (-4)
58% Disapprove (+2)

Source