The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[GlobeSoc]

I'm not worried right now. If I am not mistaken, this is supposed to be the honeymoon bounce, so his approval ratings would go higher. I expect that his highest point will be 53 approve - 45 disapprove immediately after the inauguration, and that it will be all downhill from there.

[GlobeSoc]

GWU/Battleground national poll, conducted Nov. 28 - Dec. 1:

https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/sites/mediarelations.gwu.edu/files/GWBattlegroundPoll61-questionnaire.pdf
https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/sites/mediarelations.gwu.edu/files/GWBattlegroundPoll61-crosstabs.pdf

Pence 44/37% for +7%
Trump 45/49% for -4%
Hillary Clinton 42/55% for -13%

They also have tiny subsamples on the largest states (fewer than 100 people, except for CA, so the MoE is huge):

Trump fav/unfav% in…
FL: 59/33% for +26%
TX: 52/44% for +8%
NY: 42/56% for -14%
CA: 34/58% for -24%

Trump higher in FL than TX lol

[GlobeSoc]

McClatchy/Marist national poll, conducted Dec. 1-9:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us161201/Trump_McClatchy-Marist%20Poll_December%202016.pdf

Trump
favorable 43%
unfavorable 52%

by region…
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -10
South: -5
West: -27

I find it interesting how the West hates him so much.

[GlobeSoc]

Oh boy oh boy oh boy let's get Jimmy Carter in a time machine

[GlobeSoc]

If he reached the 20s, the GOP has an existential crisis on its hands. If he somehow reached the 10s, the GOP would be replaced completely.

[GlobeSoc]

Without much information, I'll guess that the resistance levels for Trump's favorability are:

38-40%: The various republican factions+R-leaning indies (This one might be breached soon)

30-32%: The Republican base (It would take a severe depression hitting rural areas hard for this one to be breached, or an unexpected and large deviation from Republican orthodoxy)

23-25%: The Trumpists and those who support his administration out of self-interest (This one would take a complete failure of his ability to pass and maintain policy for this one to be breached, or a complete failure in policy goals being achieved)

10-12%: The true believers (It would take Trump personally going from town to town holding rallies telling his supporters he hates them for him to fall below this level)

[GlobeSoc]

I think that the deep south will have roughly even approvals, with MS or AL having the highest of that set of states and Georgia the lowest

[GlobeSoc]

New York State, Siena. The state in which Donald Trump is best known doesn't like how he is doing. His favorability has slipped to 36% for Siena (but that is one category higher than the poll most recently been using), but it is still 36-59, 17% underwater. More significantly,
 

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See more at: https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/voters-give-cuomo-his-best-favorability-job-performance-ratings-in-more-tha#sthash.rlflo57P.dpuf 

Don't be surprised if some new state polls come in tomorrow and Wednesday.

Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.

March begins in about seven hours on the East Coast.

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.

[/quote]
Who are these people who disapprove of but have favorable opinion of trump?

[GlobeSoc]

Marquette had a Wisconsin poll in the field over the weekend, will be released on Wednesday.

Unfortunately, Marquette badly blew the 2016 election, and didn't see the thrashing that President Trump and Senator Johnson would deal to the Big Losers.

1< point win and 4-point win=/= thrashing.

[GlobeSoc]

Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398

Is this an average of all Trump counties or just the Midwest ones?

Here is the page where they define it. https://medium.com/echelon-indicators/got-a-question-for-trump-country-fa3157dd0113#.nq0797tw7

50/41 isn't particularly stellar considering how many of those are 60-70% Trump counties.

But it still indicates that the areas that backed Trump most strongly are still behind him. Look at the 2018 Congressional Ballot too in those areas

Pubs are currently ahead 48-35 in the generic ballot: https://mobile.twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324622895759360

I think the only thing Democrats can count on if they want to regain congress is low Republican turnout.  The Republican base's support of the party probably won't erode much, if at all.

That seems like an underwhelming margin, though. If thoseundecideds split 2/3ds pub that would still be approaching democratic wave territory

[GlobeSoc]

What regions would be the holdout for Trump approvals if recession hits? I'd say Alabama, Wyoming and Idaho, but those might go underwater too.

[GlobeSoc]

What regions would be the holdout for Trump approvals if recession hits? I'd say Alabama, Wyoming and Idaho, but those might go underwater too.

Probably the Southern states of AL, LA, AR, OK, TN, KY and possibly SC in addition to WV, the Dakotas, Wyoming and Idaho. Maybe Nebraska. I think his base is too large in those states that even in the event of recession, he'd still be > breakeven, but barely so.

I'm suspicious of the idea that he would be above water in that many states in that circumstance.

[GlobeSoc]

I would guess that Kansas poll, if true, would indicate that the KS-GOV is going to be very interesting and that KS-03 is getting spooky fast. KS-02 and KS-04 would both be likely R instead of safe R. IL-GOV and NM-GOV are gone for the Republicans, Likely-D verging on safe-D.

Donnelly is still going to be able to hold on if Indiana is tied in approval. They love ticket splitting and will believe giving Donnelly a second term will be a check on Trump.

Although I was probably overconfident in my earlier gubernatorial predictions for the situation as it was known a few days ago, it may actually come to fruition with how the Republicans are doing. Doubly so if the upland south experiences less-than-expected economic growth and thus causes one of his main regional base to desert. I think that Idaho and Wyoming will be his holdout for approval. Deep South has black people, meaning a relatively weak defection of whites to disapprove would put him underwater. The Upland South is doing badly economically, and the blame may get shifted to Trump from Obama if recession hits(same with North Dakota). The states of Wyoming and Idaho are rural enough and economically conservative enough that he would have to be in the process of impeachment with actual incriminating evidence for him to go underwater there.

Sidenote, imagine if Connecticut went 70-28 against Trump.

Basically, the GOP is in for a nightmare of GOP wave 2014 to Democratic wave 2018 with losses by repubs that make the Democrats problems in 2010 look small.

They can get out of this, it's still early, but it's unlikely because Trump doesn't have governing experience.

[GlobeSoc]

I would guess that Kansas poll, if true, would indicate that the KS-GOV is going to be very interesting and that KS-03 is getting spooky fast. KS-02 and KS-04 would both be likely R instead of safe R. IL-GOV and NM-GOV are gone for the Republicans, Likely-D verging on safe-D.

Donnelly is still going to be able to hold on if Indiana is tied in approval. They love ticket splitting and will believe giving Donnelly a second term will be a check on Trump.

Although I was probably overconfident in my earlier gubernatorial predictions for the situation as it was known a few days ago, it may actually come to fruition with how the Republicans are doing. Doubly so if the upland south experiences less-than-expected economic growth and thus causes one of his main regional base to desert. I think that Idaho and Wyoming will be his holdout for approval. Deep South has black people, meaning a relatively weak defection of whites to disapprove would put him underwater. The Upland South is doing badly economically, and the blame may get shifted to Trump from Obama if recession hits(same with North Dakota). The states of Wyoming and Idaho are rural enough and economically conservative enough that he would have to be in the process of impeachment with actual incriminating evidence for him to go underwater there.

Sidenote, imagine if Connecticut went 70-28 against Trump.

Basically, the GOP is in for a nightmare of GOP wave 2014 to Democratic wave 2018 with losses by repubs that make the Democrats problems in 2010 look small.

They can get out of this, it's still early, but it's unlikely because Trump doesn't have governing experience.

"Septic Polling Associates"

heh

[GlobeSoc]

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-montana-polling-3/

Gravis (gag) poll of Montana has Trump at 50% approve, 42% disapprove. Not good!

Still pretty bad for trump.

[GlobeSoc]

Arkansas - Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College (Previous Poll was in February):

53% Approve (-7)
39% Disapprove (+9)

Source

Which demos caused that large shift?

[GlobeSoc]

Place your bets on how Trump's recent stupidity will affect his numbers