The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Beet]

What are his approval ratings broken down by electoral votes?

[Beet]

Economist/YouGov poll, conducted Dec. 24-27:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zp26cswnj7/econToplines.pdf

Biden 48/34% for +14%
Obama 53/42% for +11%
Pence 39/36% for +3%
The Democratic Party 40/47% for -7%
Trump 41/50% for -9%
The Republican Party 35/51% for -16%
H. Clinton 38/55% for -17%

7% of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Trump.  8% of Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

Meanwhile, 7% of Trump voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.  20% of Clinton voters have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton(!).

The Democratic party unfavorables include all those upset at the party for losing, whereas the Republican party can't even maintain positive favorables despite delivering victory at all levels.

21% say increase spending on nukes.

71% say it was a bad year or very bad year.

[Beet]

If those numbers are accurate, Democrats should easily win MT-AL and GA-6. We'll see.

Define "easily". I could see Ossoff winning by mid-single digits if Trump's numbers continue to crater, but I fail to see how Amanda-whats-her-piercing wins in Montana. Maybe Quist if he's supported by the national party.

Amanda Curtis? She got 40% in a Republican wave year for Senate. I could see her easily reaching 45% in a House election. That's more than Ossoff could get in GA-6. In the last off-year election, the Democratic candidate got 33%. I can't see any Democrat breaking 40%.

[Beet]

By that logic, none of those Southern d Blue Dog seats should've flipped in 2010 cuz they were always landslides. Or MS-1 and LA-6 in 2008 or MA-Sen in 2010. Consider also that Trump is very likely at double digit net disapproval in GA-6 right now (if the national polls are any indication), and I could see a Dem win solely on discontent with his incompetence.

2010 was an exceptional year with a 10% unemployment rate. A Romney Republican who has an unfavorable opinion of Trump is less likely to associate that with his vote in a downballot election. I'm not saying the Democrats shouldn't do better than the 33% they got in 2014, but to actually win would require a gargantuan switch in the district's politics that just don't seem realistic.

[Beet]

NBC/WSJ:
Approval: 44%
Disapproval: 48%

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-s-job-approval-stands-just-44-percent-partisan-splits-n725621

that poll also has congressional approval rating at 29%, about 20 points higher than you usually see it.

That's because Republicans are understandably happier about things than usual.

The poll also shows that the percentage of people saying the system is rigged against them flipped to negative for the first time in over a decade. It used to be a statistic used by Bernie types to argue against neoliberalism. Kind of makes you wonder that some of those people were just Republicans unhappy about Obama.

[Beet]

Some people may only disapprove of him because he constantly exposes more than ever how depraved and worthless our society is.

[Beet]

ABC / WaPo also conducted a poll on the Syrian bombing:

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http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1187a1StrikeonSyria.pdf

That's interesting to me. It probably doesn't hurt Trump much (but neither does it help him).

Seems about right.

[Beet]

Wow, an outright majority support regime change in Syria? I guess the Iraq War really is history.

America is turning into the villian like in a movie but this time it's reality.

And I suppose Assad is the hero, right?

[Beet]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/nearing-100-days-trumps-approval-at-record-lows-but-his-base-is-holding/2017/04/22/a513a466-26b4-11e7-b503-9d616bd5a305_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_poll-1202am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.4d40b6f10e85

Buried in the 26th paragraph:

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Aside: I guarantee you that the 8% of the electorate who voted for Clinton in November who wouldn't now are still not inclined to vote for him in 2020. Most of these people are probably upset Bernie supporters

It also says that they voted Hillary 46-43. She's doing 6 points worse already.

People don't want to vote for someone perceived as a loser. It doesn't matter because Hillary Clinton will not be the Democratic nominee again barring some total revolution in her image.

[Beet]

I doubt he'd win PA again if that poll is in the vicinity of being accurate, but I doubt we see a 2008-style Democratic performance there again. Western PA/the T is basically Alabama now.

Naw -- more like Kentucky. Away from the Scranton-Harrisburg-Philadelphia triangle and greater Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania is very thinly populated, so it weights Pennsylvania's vote about like the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

I look at the 39% approval rating as something so poor that Trump can hardly go that low. At this point that looks worse than Goldwater's 1964 performance (34.70%) in Pennsylvania. 

...I wonder how long it will be before Appalachia starts recognizing the Republican Party for having done little for them. 

The Philadelphia metro area casts only 2 million votes or about 33% of the total. Even if you add Scranton, Harrisburg and the more remote suburbs you have 3 million, but still only half the total statewide vote.