The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Ronnie]

How often do approval rating polls get updated?

It depends on the poll, but tracking polls like Rasmussen and Gallup usually update daily.

[Ronnie]

So, most people who disapprove of Trump already want to impeach him?  That's insane.

[Ronnie]

Ipsos/Reuters on Trump’s job approval, conducted Feb. 3-7:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=16399

approve 48%
disapprove 47%

13% of Democrats strongly approve of Trump?  Really?

[Ronnie]

It's worth noting that 41% of voters *strongly* disapprove of Trump in that poll, versus 35% who strongly approve.  

[Ronnie]

If he reached the 20s, the GOP has an existential crisis on its hands. If he somehow reached the 10s, the GOP would be replaced completely.

What happens if he gets below 10?

Honestly, I don't think that's even possible.  If I learned anything from this past campaign, it's that Trump could do anything and still hold on to his hard core base of supporters, which is probably like 25% of the electorate.

[Ronnie]

I'd be inclined to include Rasmussen in any average.  There were some instances during the campaign where outlier polls had at least a grain of truth to them.

[Ronnie]

The Dems will probably win the House in 2018 because Trump isn't very popular.

It really depends.  Trump is extremely popular among Republicans, and if he remains that way, his base could turn out in droves in 2018.  In that case, Dems might make some gains, but it's doubtful they'd be able to win back the house.  I think that prospect hinges on Trump's approval rating eroding at least somewhat with Republicans.

[Ronnie]

Trump crashed bigly in today's Rasmussen poll:

Approve: 51% (-4)
Disapprove: 49% (+4)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_feb20

[Ronnie]

The opposite happened in today's Gallup poll:

Approve: 42% (+1)
Disapprove: 53% (-2)

[Ronnie]

How does one win national elections when 49% of the country "disapproves strongly" of your president?

When just enough of the country thinks the alternative is bad enough to bite the bullet and vote for the lesser of evils.

[Ronnie]

Today's Gallup:

Approve: 43% (+1)
Disapprove: 52%

[Ronnie]

Today's Gallup:

Approve 41% (nc)
Disapprove 54% (+1)

[Ronnie]

NBC/WSJ:
Approval: 44%
Disapproval: 48%

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-s-job-approval-stands-just-44-percent-partisan-splits-n725621

that poll also has congressional approval rating at 29%, about 20 points higher than you usually see it.

That's because Republicans are understandably happier about things than usual.

[Ronnie]

Gallup:

Approve: 42% (nc)
Disapprove: 54% (nc)

[Ronnie]

Gallup:

Approve: 43% (+1)
Disapprove: 52% (-2)

I think we can count on his approvals rallying a bit (or perhaps a lot) over the next few days.

[Ronnie]

Economist/YouGov (Conducted 2/25 - 3/1)
Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 51%

Reuters/Ipsos (Conducted 2/24 - 2/28)
Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 48%

[Ronnie]

Gallup:

43% (nc)
51% (nc)

It doesn't seem like his congressional address gave him much of a bounce.

[Ronnie]

It seems like his approval is on a bit of an upswing, for whatever reason.  Still, I find it striking that 41% strongly disapprove of him, according to the CNN poll.  He must have the lowest ceiling of any president since polling began.

[Ronnie]

Here's a paragraph about the IBD/TIPP poll I thought was note-worthy:

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It's kind of bizarre that they detected a drastic change in his popularity after the speech, since we didn't see that in any other poll.  Hmm...

[Ronnie]

Gallup:

Approve: 43% (-1)
Disapprove: 51% (+1)

[Ronnie]

I think it's quite possible he'll have a net positive rating sooner or later, but I also believe his ceiling is historically low for an incumbent president.  He might not ever have more than 55% or so of Americans on his side, unless something cataclysmic happens, like a terrorist attack on the scale of 9/11.

[Ronnie]

So, when Trump keeps his mouth shut for an extended period of time, his approvals go up, but when he says something stupid, it goes down?

Yeah, it's been that way since the very beginning, as far as I can tell.

[Ronnie]

Or it's just noise and Rasmussen isn't a great pollster.

[Ronnie]

iCitizen has it at 42/58.

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Wat.

[Ronnie]

Gallup:

Approve: 41% (-1)
Disapprove: 54% (+1)