The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

Blank map. Favorability:

Probably useful until March.

Approval:

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%  

[pbrower2a]

First one: New Jersey. Quinnipiac.

President-elect Donald Trump remains unpopular in New Jersey, with a negative 38 - 51 percent favorability rating. (Obama up 56-35 in approval... guess what sort of Presidential nominee the Democrats will be able to win with in 2020?)

https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2408

Blank map. Favorability:

Probably useful until March.

Approval:

Even -- white



Red, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40% 
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%
Blue, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

[pbrower2a]

First one: New Jersey. Quinnipiac.

Whoops! I missed the Siena poll for New York State.




President-elect Donald Trump remains unpopular in New Jersey, with a negative 38 - 51 percent favorability rating. (Obama up 56-35 in approval... guess what sort of Presidential nominee the Democrats will be able to win with in 2020?)

https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2408

Blank map. Approval:

Not likely useful until March.

Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.

Even -- white



Red, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40% 
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%
Blue, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

[pbrower2a]

First one: New Jersey. Quinnipiac.

President-elect Donald Trump remains unpopular in New Jersey, with a negative 38 - 51 percent favorability rating. (Obama up 56-35 in approval... guess what sort of Presidential nominee the Democrats will be able to win with in 2020?)

https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2408

Blank map. Favorability:

Probably useful until March.

Approval:

Even -- white



Red, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40% 
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%
Blue, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

[pbrower2a]

As a perspective on how optimistic people could be about an incoming President:



Such an image of Herbert Hoover was well justified in 1928.

[pbrower2a]

Virginia does not like the new President.

https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2412

Trump
favorable 39%
unfavorable 53%

This could be the worst of any state with more than five electoral votes for Donald Trump (which leaves room fr Vermont, Rhode Island, New Mexico, and Hawaii). I can't imagine him being that unpopular in California.

Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%
Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

[pbrower2a]

McClatchy/Marist national poll, conducted Dec. 1-9:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us161201/Trump_McClatchy-Marist%20Poll_December%202016.pdf

Trump
favorable 43%
unfavorable 52%

by region…
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -10
South: -5
West: -27

Maybe this explains why he won Iowa and Ohio so decisively and won Michigan and Wisconsin, and came close to winning Minnesota.   

[pbrower2a]

Large Hispanic populations. Even though Mexican-Americans (the bulk of the Hispanic population in the West) has been growing, it has not been going Republican.  Educated minorities may be more adept at catching a white Anglo liar than can educated white Anglo people. Maybe it is harder to build unmerited trust among people with cultural differences.  Just think about this -- Bernie Madoff largely fleeced Jews. The SEC has one of its most active offices in Salt Lake City to catch crooks who play on shared Mormonism of those that they fleece in securities scams.

The Hispanic population is growing rapidly in states that until recently had few -- like Utah, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho.

[pbrower2a]

In the unlikely event of a re-do, I see no evidence that Donald Trump would win. The three states shown are clearly blue (atlas Red) states, but there is no way in which Donald Trump could get less than 45% of the vote in Virginia and win nationwide -- either in the popular vote or the electoral vote. Sure, 'favorability' is not an approval rating...

[pbrower2a]

New Gallup poll

Favorable: 42% Unfavorable: 55%

This is as good as it will get for grifter/groper Trump.


http://www.gallup.com/poll/199997/trump-maintains-post-election-bounce-no-new-gains.aspx?g_source=Politics&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

He needs a bounce.

In the musical Damn Yankees  is the song 'Ya Gotta Have Heart', in which one of the members of the awful Washington Senators interjects "We gotta get better 'cause we can't get worse'. That is about where Donald Trump is. It has to get better 'cause it can;t get worse.

Usually elected politicians disappoint people who voted for them by having to make decisions that can't please everyone. Most political decisions in a mature democracy divide on roughly a 53-47 margin until they are accepted as the norm. That's how same-sex marriage went. First it was unthinkable, then it was a fringe issue, then it was truly controversial, and then it had majority support.

If one wins with 53% of the vote one ends up losing 5% to 8% from the percentage of the vote to a somewhat-stable approval level if one is the average elected official. One gets a bigger vote share by actively campaigning for re-election by touting one's legitimate achievements. Of course, if the achievements are suspect and one knows such, one runs away from one's record -- and loses.    But we all have yet to see that.That will not become clear for some time.

Donald Trump will propose much that a near-majority of Americans will find despicable. But it doesn't matter whether 49% of the electorate thinks one just marginally inadequate or thinks one a monster so long as one gets the plurality of the vote.   

It is possible that he will get miracles by associating great sacrifices in living conditions, the environment, and in educational hopes on behalf of some far-better future. I see a far greater likelihood that he will make things worse for all but the top 2% or so of Americans who might not like to hear such slogans as "Workers of the World, Unite!" or "The Bourgeoisie is the Enemy!

Let us all remember what went on in Russia a hundred years ago next year... no economic elite wants that.

Capitalism saved itself with the consumer economy in which the proletariat became a market for the miracles of innovation from radios to readers instead of being nothing more than sweated toilers. Donald Trump has no clue that the miracles of productivity and technology can no longer make people happy just by producing more stuff. As in the 1930s America solved its problem of unemployment by reducing the workweek from 50 or so hours to 40 hours. We may need to see a further reduction in the normal workweek.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac poll of New York, conducted Dec. 13-19:

https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2413

Trump:
favorable 31%
unfavorable 59%

By region...
NYC: -46
suburbs: -23
upstate: -14

I take it back on no large state being unable to so hold Donald Trump in disdain as Virginia in its most recent poll . Sure, it is New York, but nobody is going to win re-election against a reasonably-competent opponent in a free and fair election for President  while having approval that low in New York State. Of course, approval is the acid test, and Trump will need at least 35% approval in New York to have a chance of winning nationwide.  Trump will lose New York even in a 400-EV landslide, but he is not going to lose the state by 30% and win nationally.   


Red is for a Democratic advantage, and blue is for a Republican advantage.


Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

[pbrower2a]

Mike Pence? At some point (erratic or criminal, as in "war crimes" behavior, or blatantly un-Constitutional), and we might see the Joint Chiefs of Staff take action for cause. If Mike Pence is complicit, then the process that takes our Donald Trump also takes out Mike Pence.

Only one of these states (Virginia) is a legitimate swing state. 39% favorability does not reliably translate into approval... but don't count on him getting anything much above 45%, which is just about what he got. This is a very flawed President by historical standards, and he is already doing very unpopular things.

Don't fool yourself: a military coup would be nasty. Think of Pinochet overthrowing Allende in Chile. That nasty. 

[pbrower2a]

Those aren't bad numbers for Trump. 45% of the country will always disapprove of any Republican, no matter what.

These are horrid numbers. Donald Trump will need to backtrack on some incendiary, insulting statements from the campaign. He has nearly half the public hating him instead of hoping for good results. But if he backtracks on those incendiary statements, will those to whom he apologizes accept it?

The rise and fall of Dubya in the polls indicates that people who expect the best out of a politician has nothing to do with partisanship. Donald Trump has fanatical support from about 40% of the electorate.

It's unlikely to get better. Fanatical support is unlikely to stay when people find that his idea of employment is to get people to work more hours for lower pay and under harsher management. Sure, it's possible to get the industrial jobs back -- but that will require a return to the sweatshops that went out of vogue in America but appear in countries in the early-industrial stage of development. Does anyone really want to work 60 hours a week to live in a fetid slum and have hunger as a companion?

People don't want work so much as they want pay.

...Donald Trump wants the sort of housing bubble financed with predatory lending  that Dubya sponsored. Because everyone now links the housing bubble with the predatory lending of the Double-Zero Decade to the worst economic meltdown since the Great Depression, such a bubble will never succeed to the take-off stage. That is a failure waiting to happen.     

[pbrower2a]

Meanwhile, 7% of Trump voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.  20% of Clinton voters have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton(!).

"Local football fans blame team's QB for losing season"

Sidenote...The people who viewed this election as a choice between two good candidates crack me up. Some people just always see the bright side, I suppose.

The bright side: American youth are going to pay more attention to foreign languages, and that will cause them to become better speakers of English -- and likely less tolerant of a mangler of the English language like Donald Trump.

[pbrower2a]

A new Gallup poll has Americans highly skeptical of the ability of Donald Trump to achieve  some of the critical functions of the Presidency.

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Ouch!

I think that Trump gets an edge on the economy because such is what he promised  and was most careful in remaining secretive about. People may assume that because he is a tycoon he will get economic improvement by using his business acumen to promote economic growth. Because he has a sure majority in both Houses of Congress on everything he can be expected to do fairly well -- but even with such majorities he is seen less likely to succeed with Congress as with Obama or Dubya. 

http://www.gallup.com/poll/201158/skeptical-trump-handle-presidential-duties.aspx

[pbrower2a]

PPP will be polling north Carolina this weekend.

[pbrower2a]

So far we have approval/disapproval in only three states. All three voted against Donald Trump, and voters in all three states don't think well of him. We have no approval polls (he has yet to be inaugurated!)... and PPP will show us results for its favorite state to poll, North Carolina, which barely went for Donald Trump. There was no statewide polling over the Christmas and New Years' weekends... I expect that to change.

We will probably also see polls from Quinnipiac. The map is ready for copious polls, as there will be some hot Governors' races in 2018  in Florida, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.  Because governors have some control over whether voter suppression happens or does not happen, those five races may be more important for 2020 than whether the Republicans make gains in the Senate (which I expect because the Democrats have more potential seats to lose).

By winning the critical governors' races in 2018, Republicans can seal doom for the Democratic Party and liberalism in America.


Red is for a Democratic advantage, and blue is for a Republican advantage.


Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

[pbrower2a]

It looks as if the President born in Kenya (according to many on the Right) is far better than the one made in Russia (according to the Left).

[pbrower2a]

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That's a short honeymoon...

I doubt that there was a honeymoon.

I think that Donald Trump is as close to the bottom as he can go, as America is divided into two nearly-equal political universes that believe in diametric opposites. Republicans are going to be proved wrong or Democrats will be made permanently irrelevant.

This would be a great four years to work abroad.

[pbrower2a]

I didn't expect a poll of Maryland, not that it contradicts anything that polls of New York, New Jersey, and Virginia already say.

First, the incumbent Republican Governor is doing very well in a deep-blue (Atlas Red) state: 74% approval! Fiscal conservative, but basically non-ideological... we could use much of that anywhere.

Second -- Donald Trump is deep underwater in approval -- 30% favorable (combined "somewhat" and "strongly" favorable) and 56% unfavorable -- with 48% seeing him as "strongly unfavorable".

http://2qtvrz46wjcg34jx1h1blgd2.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Gonzales-Maryland-Media-Poll-January-2017.pdf

To be sure, New York, New Jersey, Virginia, and Maryland do not constitute or even contain a state easily described as a microcosm of America. I am more interested in Obama-Trump states for now. I'm guessing that if states from Virginia to Maine were to have their say on Donald Trump, then he'd be vulnerable to a military coup.  

Red is for a Democratic advantage, and blue is for a Republican advantage.


Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

[pbrower2a]

But if he backtracks on those incendiary statements, will those to whom he apologizes accept it?

I won't accept it. He's a predator.

I wouldn't either. It would show him as a callow opportunist.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac poll from 1/5-1/9:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his responsibilities as president-elect?

Approve - 37%
Disapprove - 51%

Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Favorable - 37%
Unfavorable - 51%

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2415

He ran as a Man of the People and then showed himself as the Man of Wealth and privilege. He's the classic fraud -- Bait-and-Switch. 

We have been had as a nation and people. It will be ugly.

[pbrower2a]

Gonna. Get. Ugly.

[pbrower2a]

Honeymoons can be bad experiences. She's a hiker and camper, they're from Greater LA, and they agreed to go to Banff to see nature at its best. He, a compulsive gambler,  decided to take a diversion in Las Vegas and spend the honeymoon funds playing a big-roller in Vegas.  She finds Vegas boring. To keep playing he hocked the car and camping gear to keep playing, and of course he went through that csh... and the honeymoon ends as she sobbingly calls friends and relatives for bus fare home.  

That marriage will not last.

[pbrower2a]

Two things:

1. Morning consult and other pollsters have shown better (albeit not great) numbers for Trump

2. Quinnipiac showed a much rosier picture for democrats than what transpired on November 8th, an anti-Trump house effect might be showing in his approvals as well

Donald Trump won with a late surge that few could foresee. But now people have misgivings about what they elected, at least in New York, New Jersey, Maryland, and Virginia. We get to see how North Carolina goes tomorrow. (I was hoping to see Florida, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin from Quinnipiac... maybe next week.