The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[hopper]

SurveyUSA did a national favorable rating poll among 1.207 RV, Monday and Tuesday:

46-50 Donald Trump
47-44 Mike Pence
25-42 Steve Bannon
33-42 Kellyanne Conway
27-34 Jared Kushner

53-34 New York Times
52-34 Washington Post
54-38 CNN
54-42 FOX News
49-38 MSNBC
22-32 Matt Drudge
18-39 Breitbart
56-36 SNL

57-40 Barack Obama
43-52 Hillary Clinton

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=baeb0e3c-2056-4057-b9ee-8f02adb98bfd

SUSA also released the following statement:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.surveyusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Statement-from-SurveyUSA-CEO-Jay-H-Leve-020717.pdf

That's how polarizing this past Presidential Election was when both candidates favorability numbers were underwater during the election!

[hopper]

I am indifferent to Trump's policies currently but I don't have a favorable view of him.

[hopper]

One thing to look for: really-big waves depend upon the entry of new generations into the political arena as older generations fade out. People born in the 1930s and 1940s are dying off rapidly, so politicians who might still be competent enough if they have a constituency of people who share the same political culture start retiring from public life or being defeated in elections.

New generations have different concerns than the older generations. The Millennial generation is often heavily in debt with on the whole little savings. Debtors tend to be on the political Left  because they want inflation to gut their burdens and an overheated economy to make earning their way out of debt much easier. Creditors are generally on the right, with small-scale creditors (who might have insurance policies or savings accounts) still concerned about having reliable income to protect their assets from having to be drained in economic downturns  but intent on preventing severe inflation. Big creditors want their pounds of flesh -- to make debt hurt the toiler who has had to borrow, perhaps even pawning himself to survive.

The Millennial generation is entering the stage of life when political careers begin to lead into high offices -- state legislatures, the House and the Senate, and even Governorships. The oldest among them will be in their middle-to-late 30s by 2020, and their pols will have an obvious constituency that the Silent (like Mitch McConnell), Boomers (like Trump and the Clintons) and even X (like Barack Obama) can't fully understand and relate. Obama and Trump have played ethnic demographics for their political successes, if in opposite ways, the former for inclusion and the latter for White Power (yes, that is an ugly slogan, but it fits).  

Millennial adults now fill most of the child-bearing years; even if there are adults in their fifties through seventies fathering children, it is the younger women who will be more important in establishing the culture of children.  Millennial adults are very hands-on parents, and they will not accept poverty in the name of some ideal fifty years from now that requires their children to live in poverty. If they have made great sacrifices on behalf of Corporate America, they do not want their children to get things far worse.

Can I at age 61 speak on behalf of Millennial adults? Hardly. But demographics are the ultimate reality in politics. Politicians who can relate to demographic change can be spectacularly successful. Those that cannot adapt lose.  

Obama is a Boomer although a late one.

I don't think Trump is a White Nationalist although I would say he is a "Nationalist". He did put a lot of work in getting to Non-College Whites to show up and vote for him. "White College Graduates" weren't really his coalition though although he did win or lose them depending on what poll you looked at. Exit Polls the night or the day after Trump won the election showed him winning College Educated Whites but Nate Cohn of NYT showed Trump losing College Educated Whites by 2% Points to Hillary.

As far as adapting to Changing Demographics you have to keep your policies fresh since you don't want to run on stale old policies that the electorate isn't buying(i.e. voting for.) Mondale in 1984 was a victim of this as was Romney in 2012 mostly.

[hopper]

SurveyMonkey national poll, conducted Feb. 6-12:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BztOs71zt1WpVE9uajdzMDRfckk/view

Trump job approval:
approve 46%
disapprove 53%
(Those numbers are the same for both adults and RVs.)

approval margin among…
men: +10
women: -22
white: +10
black: -55
Hispanic: -39
white / no college: +24
white / college degree: -16

His numbers with Blacks and Hispanics are what you would expect for a Republican. I feel like he is losing support with "College Educated Whites" since his approvals are -16 with them. He won Non-College Whites by 40% points I think but he has lost 16% points with them to being +24 with them.

[hopper]

There's a limit to how far he can fall without Republicans souring on him, and we are probably close to that floor at 38%. I would expect him to hover around 37-42/54-58 territory until he begins bleeding support from his own party. Either way, those are terrible numbers to try and muster support for his administrative agenda.

Once he begins clashing with Congressional Republicans on policy and continues to accumulate scandals and defeats as his term progresses, Republican's will no longer provide him with unanimous support. Losing just 15-25% of his current favorability among Republicans could crater his job approval into the low 30s easily. It will be difficult to reduce it to below 30 and unlikely to occur before the midterms, although I wouldn't be surprised if he consistently registers in the 20s by his last year if his tenure unravels into an absolute free-fall over the years.

Still, anything below 40 percent approval virtually guarantees substantial losses for Republicans in the mid-term, and registering closer to 30 percent by late 2018 could result in a Democratic landslide. Either way, Republicans are stuck with him whether they like it or not.

They're not stuck with him, since Pence would be much better for their party AND the country (and foreign relations). They're just p***ies

I mean that they're stuck being associated with his agenda and with him being the face of their party. Voters will not put any daylight between the Republican brand and president Trump much as the establishment may hope for that to be the case. But yes, they are spineless, and it's precisely because they no longer can control the ship.

Keep in mind Congressional Dems voted a lot with Obama in 2009-2010 just like Congressional Republicans are doing now with Trump.

[hopper]

The Dems will probably win the House in 2018 because Trump isn't very popular.

[hopper]

If he reached the 20s, the GOP has an existential crisis on its hands. If he somehow reached the 10s, the GOP would be replaced completely.

Only 9 more points to go!

On a serious note, I think people are severely underestimating the likelihood of him hitting the 20's. If a recession hits, his one trump card is gone. I also think people are OVERestimating how much nonsense/incompetence the public can tolerate. Personally, I think these weekly crises will wear on the public quicker than most think

It is still the Obama economy. Foreign policy has yet to shift fully away from the Obama universe. President Trump and the GOP own any economic meltdown.

Usually it takes 6-9 months for a President in his first year to completely own the economy.

[hopper]

How does one win national elections when 49% of the country "disapproves strongly" of your president?

Cause it was 49% in the right areas

Rural Michigan. Rural Wisconsin. Rural Pennsylvania.

Macomb County, Michigan is not rural its part of the Detroit Burbs'. I'm not sure  Saginaw County is part of the Detroit Burb's because it looks a little far from Detroit but its far from the UP as well. Romney did good in the UP but he didn't win the state in 2012 and he lost Macomb and Saginaw to Obama and Trump won those 2 counties.

[hopper]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 16-19:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e4-dc17-a57a-f6fc0d810002
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e2-d5b6-a35f-fef795640001

approve 49%
disapprove 44%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +4
Northeast: -2
South: +11
West: -3

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +14
blacks: -56
Hispanics: +4

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +2
$50-100k: +10
over $100k: +4

6% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

That has to a typo on your part or a typo on  "Morning Consult Polling"(s) part because there is no way Trump is at +4 approval with Hispanics. His disapproval with Hispanics are in the negative mid 40-low 50's with Hispanics in other polls on here.

[hopper]

Three years away from the start of the real campaigning of the 2020 Presidential election I can make the earliest possible prediction of its results.

Note that I make some assumptions.

First, that the 2020 election will be free and fair.  

Anything else (1) isn't interesting, (2) is a violation of over 200 years of precedent, or (3) indicates that the comparative few who own the assets and grab the income either have gained total power or have lost everything in a revolution or apocalyptic war.

Second, that American political culture does not change profoundly in the meantime.  

Ethnic divides and religious patterns remain much the same and have much the same general orientation. There is no trend toward fundamentalist religion or toward irreligion that would change voting patters. We haven't seen that since the late 1970s  and I don't expect to see that now.

Third, that the states change in their voting behavior only due to demographic change

The Hispanic and Asian populations are growing rapidly and making a bigger part of the electorate while black and white populations become lesser shares.

Fourth, approval-disapproval differentials remain much the same as they are now.

That assumes that President Trump does not endure even further losses of approval or make a miraculous recovery.  Could things go worse for him? Sure. Mass unrest. Economic meltdown. Military or diplomatic debacles. Scandals involving sex or financial turpitude.  I'm not saying that any one of those will happen, but I can't rule them out. If any of these happen, then Donald Trump might not even run for re-election, in which case all bets are off.  

Fifth, that President Trump will run for election.

He will not die, become incapacitated, resign, or be impeached whether by Congress or a military junta. Crazy as things are now I can't even rule out a military coup. To be sure, if he dislikes the Presidency he might choose not to run while expressing some noble cause for not seeking a second term, as did LBJ.

Sixth, that third parties will not greatly shape the election.

If the liberal side splits significantly, then President Trump wins. If some conservative-leaning nominee gets 10% or more of the vote, then Trump loses 'bigly'.

>>>>I have enough approval and favorability ratings of states to create a skeleton of a likely 2020 Presidential election. There are states (Colorado, Georgia, Ohio, and Wisconsin) for which I have nothing so far, for which I would like some data.

So add 6% to the most recent number for approval or favorability (where I had both favorability and approval, they were basically the same -- I prefer approval) to get the likely share of the vote in any state in the upcoming election. Nate Silver has a model for elected (not appointed) Governors and Senators that suggests that they normally lose support once they start legislating or governing because they can't please everyone who voted for them, but that they typically gain about 6% of the vote from an approval rating at the beginning of a campaign season by campaigning. That's the 'average' Governor or Senator running against the 'average' challenger. It worked well with Obama, whose approval ratings were in the mid 40s early in 2016, and he barely got re-elected by the popular vote. If it applies to Senators and Governors, then why not to the President?

So here are the data. I normed some unflattering polls for Trump in Florida and North Carolina to the national average , but other than that I simply took the latest numbers. Here is the raw data:

 NY - 31 MA - 25  NJ - 36 AZ - 39 FL - 34 (raise to 40) NC- 36 (raise to 40) MI-40 WV - 58 CA -34 NH - 43 VA - 38 IA - 42 AR - 60 TX - 46 VA -32 TN - 51 MD -29 PA - 32 SC - 44

Add 6 to the approval rating, and you get the following map:

      

white -- 49-51% for Trump (a virtual tie)

Trump wins:

60% or more
55-59.9%
51.0-54.9%

Trump loses, getting :

40% or less
40-44.9%
45-48.9%

Foreign-born Asian Women don't have the same fertility rates as Foreign-born Hispanic Women do. Foreign-Born Hispanic Women give birth to an average of 3 kids where as other women(White, Asian, Black, and US Born Hispanic Women) give birth to an average of 2 kids. I think US-Born Hispanic Women their fertility rates were 3 kids before the late 2000's recession if I am correct before the housing bubble burst and their husbands or boyfriends job rates in the construction industry declined. Most Asian population growth is via immigration from East Asia.

[hopper]

On the economy: it is still the Obama economy, or the Federal Reserve Bank really manages it.

President Trump has yet to force economic reforms likely to inflict pain on the masses so that the super-rich can get even more -- like a national "Right-to-Work" (for much less, as union officials call it), abolition of the minimum wage laws, tax shifts, and destruction of the welfare system.  He has yet to succeed at forming an economic bubble analogous to the real estate mess of fifteen years ago.

We can pay more attention to approval than to favorability. Approval generally means recognition of the merits or demerits of official performance. It is possible to like someone who is hurting one, as in certain stages of an abusive relationship.  But that usually sours fast.

What is telling? New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut* residents likely know Donald Trump the person far better than any other Americans. If his approval rating in New York state is 29%,  and this is significantly lower than is normal for Republican Presidents in New York, then we can only imagine what direction his support will take in such states as Georgia*, Minnesota*, Ohio*, and Wisconsin* and will take over time. 

*states for which I have no polling data.

Can anyone come up with polling data for President Trump in New Jersey and New York from the first term of President George W. Bush? 

Yeah but Dem Presidential Candidates have carried NY since the 1988 Presidential Election. Also Connecticut and New Jersey have been carried by Dem Presidential Candidates since the 1992 Presidential Election. I do agree though New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut Residents know of Trump pretty well.

[hopper]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 16-19:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e4-dc17-a57a-f6fc0d810002
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e2-d5b6-a35f-fef795640001

approve 49%
disapprove 44%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +4
Northeast: -2
South: +11
West: -3

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +14
blacks: -56
Hispanics: +4

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +2
$50-100k: +10
over $100k: +4

6% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

That has to a typo on your part or a typo on  "Morning Consult Polling"(s) part because there is no way Trump is at +4 approval with Hispanics. His disapproval with Hispanics are in the negative mid 40-low 50's with Hispanics in other polls on here.

Their writeup has the following breakdown for Hispanics:

strongly approve 22%
somewhat approve 28%
somewhat disapprove 13%
strongly disapprove 33%

So the totals are:
approve 50%
disapprove 46%

Their Hispanic sample is 180 people so MoE is of course quite large.

Trump is at 22% approval with Hispanic according to Gallup which came out with a breakdown of Trumps approval numbers by demographic group in the past day or two.

[hopper]

Looks like Trump's negatives are just about synchronized across polling outfits now. What a mandate he has!

Well he did win the election.

[hopper]

Gen Z will be more non-white than Millennials fwiw.

Most of the non-white growth has been Hispanic though from Central American Countries. Black and Asian Populations haven't grown that much as a % of the US Population as Hispanics have the past 35-40 years.

[hopper]

Gen Z will be more non-white than Millennials fwiw.

Most of the non-white growth has been Hispanic though from Central American Countries. Black and Asian Populations haven't grown that much as a % of the US Population as Hispanics have the past 35-40 years.

It'll still be more non-white.

Yeah but Mexican Migration was huge into the US from 1972-2005. There wasn't a big jump of migrants from East Asia for example during that time period like there was from Mexico.

[hopper]

This is probably to be expected. Remember, when the news cycle was centered around Trump, he was getting his butt kicked in the polls. When the story was "Trump brags about sexual assault" or "Trump goes on a tweetstorm" or "Trump wants to ban Muslims" or "Trump flubs debate," he was losing by 7-9 points to HRC. It's only when the news cycle was focused on her emails was there a tightening.

Now that he's President, all the news is going to be about him. His tweetstorms, his party's healthcare bill, his Muslim bans, (and their blockage) his budget, his staff being insane, and so on. He has no foil in the form of HRC. He could try to engineer a bad story about the DNC to come out in October 2018, but that probably won't save his party the same way he was saved by Comey.

He isn't banning Muslims. 90% of Muslims are not affected by the travel ban. I wish people would get that through their heads. The Travel Ban is not permanent either.

His healthcare bill-Its not his really its Paul Ryan's in the same way ObamaCare wasn't really Obama's bill it was Nancy Pelosi's and Harry Reid's bill. I will agree that the HealthCare Bill that is going through the federal government at this moment is flawed.

His budget-Its a budget that is DOA. The President is required by law to put out a budget I think for some reason. Its really a useless process in my opinion since "The President"(whoever it maybe)" their budgets never get passed as they(The President) writes them.

I do agree that the excessive tweeting has got to stop especially when he is a bad mood. I am sure though Obama did tweet on occasion but nowhere near to the amount that Trump did.

The narrative that Comey helped Trump win the election is really for the most part false. Hillary had issues of her own. Her loss of Black Turnout in MI and WI cost her as losing Non-College Whites by big margins in those 2 states. She also lost Non-College Whites in PA by big numbers and couldn't make up for that with College Whites in the Philly Burbs'.

[hopper]

Yeah, if there's an economic downturn before the midterms or 2020, it'll be a massacre.

Yes It seems like if there is an economic downturn by the time an election comes around the party in power takes a hit(think 1980 or 2008.) In 1992 the downturn was mild but Bush H.W. took the hit. It could have to do with that the Republicans had retained the White House for 3 straight Presidential Election Cycles(1980-1988) plus the factor of a mild economic downturn.

[hopper]

Hell with these numbers, Hillary could beat his ass.

Low favorables are one thing. Low approvals are horrible.

Yeah but if we had a Presidential Election in 2010 Obama would have never won as his party took a beating in a mid-term and the economy sucked.

[hopper]

Trump plummets to 37/58 in Gallup. A new low.

It's probably just noise, but wow!  I don't think Obama ever dropped that low, and we're less than two months into Trump's administration.

Maybe. But what's different is that Trump is now (50+ days later) pushing for policy with health care and his budget. It's unpopular and maybe some "give him a chance" people are bailing.

I did not vote for him in 2016 because of his comments about Mexicans and will not vote for him in 2020 for the same reason. However I did want to "give him a chance" on his policies but if he can't this Healthcare Bill right I am at least "on the line" on bailing. I bailed on Obama after the Healthcare Bill I think or "The Stimulus"(can't remember which one.)

His budget will never see the light of day even with Republicans controlling both legislative chambers.

[hopper]

Jesus, do you read anything before posting? I said Gallup at the top (Which has been doing approvals of presidents for quite some time now) of my post, and secondly this in an approval map...idiot.

You basically just proved my point: You're focusing on that Gallup poll, take it as Gospel truth and ignore other polls, which goes against the point of an approval thread (re: "and secondly this in an approval map"). So no... I'm not the one who has issues with reading comprehension. As for the "idiot" thing... well, there's this thing called projection. Given the fact that you think "universal swing" is a thing, you should probably be more careful with throwing around this term.

Sorry for derailing this thread, but it's unbelievable that people here are predicting the demise of the Republican Party and Democratic landslide victories in 2018, 2020 and 2022 based on approval numbers in March 2017. That's it from me.

Some type of average for every state would be good. I didn't find something like that on RCP, maybe someone has a link or could create one.

Is it really unreasonable to expect a backlash of some sort against a party whose President is sitting in the 30's fairly consistently? I don't think so. Fwiw, I feel like the backlash will be mainly concentrated in swing/blue/pink states in 2017-18, not so much in deep red states outside of state-specific fluky gubernatorial elections in places like CT, AL, and KS where I think the out party has a considerable opportunity. We haven't had something like this since W's second term. And the economy is good right now, which makes it all the more mind-blowing.

I don't think a Democrat could win the AL Governorship at this point. Yes KS has had Dem Governors in the past(Finney and Sebelius.)

[hopper]

McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -8
Northeast: -31
South: -7
West: -11

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: -2
blacks: -88
Hispanics: -23

white college graduate: -22
white not college graduate: +15

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -20
over $50k: -9

Trumps approvals with Whites and Hispanics are surprisingly pretty close in this poll.

His numbers are bad with White College Graduates though at -22.

[hopper]

McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

Republicans in Congress have done plenty to hurt themselves lately. They no longer have the excuse "But Obama!"

Not really Congressional Republicans but this current Presidential Administration has been chaotic with the Russia Investigation hanging over their heads currently.

[hopper]

I would guess that Kansas poll, if true, would indicate that the KS-GOV is going to be very interesting and that KS-03 is getting spooky fast. KS-02 and KS-04 would both be likely R instead of safe R. IL-GOV and NM-GOV are gone for the Republicans, Likely-D verging on safe-D.

Donnelly is still going to be able to hold on if Indiana is tied in approval. They love ticket splitting and will believe giving Donnelly a second term will be a check on Trump.

Although I was probably overconfident in my earlier gubernatorial predictions for the situation as it was known a few days ago, it may actually come to fruition with how the Republicans are doing. Doubly so if the upland south experiences less-than-expected economic growth and thus causes one of his main regional base to desert. I think that Idaho and Wyoming will be his holdout for approval. Deep South has black people, meaning a relatively weak defection of whites to disapprove would put him underwater. The Upland South is doing badly economically, and the blame may get shifted to Trump from Obama if recession hits(same with North Dakota). The states of Wyoming and Idaho are rural enough and economically conservative enough that he would have to be in the process of impeachment with actual incriminating evidence for him to go underwater there.

Sidenote, imagine if Connecticut went 70-28 against Trump.

Basically, the GOP is in for a nightmare of GOP wave 2014 to Democratic wave 2018 with losses by repubs that make the Democrats problems in 2010 look small.

They can get out of this, it's still early, but it's unlikely because Trump doesn't have governing experience.

The thing is Trump is nowhere near as likeable as Obama was.

[hopper]

Gallup:
38 (+3)/57(+2) Oh no here comes his momentum back/s

And somewhere out there someone is probably thinking that. It definitely is amusing how Trump is losing so much that he probably will move the "successful approval" goalposts somewhere in the 40s - the only numbers he seems able to sustain for any reasonable period of time (so far)

I have though about this and I think Trump's approval ceiling and floor are pretty close.
He only got 46% of the popular vote so his approvals will probably stay in the high 30's/low-mid 40's rage.

[hopper]

So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.

Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.