The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[windjammer]

Quite the opposite. If they win red territory it'd make waves, but if they lose those areas with the B-list candidates they have, who cares.

Didn't Trump only win that Georgia district by 1? That's hardly red territory. And neither is Montana, for that matter. The state has a Democratic Senator, a Democratic governor and elects Democrats to statewide offices on a regular basis. Now if there were an incumbent like Zinke running, it'd be very tough for them to win, but an open seat should be easily winnable for them - especially if Republicans are as unpopular as the polls say they are.

It's too early to have a massive backlash against republicans downballot tbh, the 2017 elections will be a bigger indicator than the current special elections.

[windjammer]

He seems to be around -10 right now

[windjammer]

NBC/WSJ:
Approval: 44%
Disapproval: 48%

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-s-job-approval-stands-just-44-percent-partisan-splits-n725621

that poll also has congressional approval rating at 29%, about 20 points higher than you usually see it.

That's because Republicans are understandably happier about things than usual.

The poll also shows that the percentage of people saying the system is rigged against them flipped to negative for the first time in over a decade. It used to be a statistic used by Bernie types to argue against neoliberalism. Kind of makes you wonder that some of those people were just Republicans unhappy about Obama.

I think the Bernie types have mistaken a lot of the anti-establishment sentiment of the white working class as animated by opposition to neoliberalism, when in reality it has been anti-cosmopolitanism.

^^^^^

[windjammer]

McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

Around D+9 is when the House has a chance of flipping, so this is good this early on.

It is, and this is good news indeed. While the generic ballot technically isn't for state races, it still represents a rather broad view of how the public feels about one party over the other. If these numbers hold in 2017, it could be pretty bad for the GOP in NJ/VA.

However, personally I feel like these numbers are still "reactionary" and not durable. Trump has been under a never-ending stream of scandal or generally bad news coverage, so it's not surprising his approvals/the GOP's numbers are down. I'm not convinced Democratic support on the generic ballot has reached a durable state, where the public is so fed up with Republicans/Trump that almost nothing that is plausible can happen to help the GOP rebound in time. I think it's possible to get there before Nov Oct-Nov 2018, but it'll take at least a year+ rather than a few months.

I think Democrats could win the House with a lower lead than 9 points. Remember that the GOP gerrymander never was made based on a so big collapse in the suburbs.

[windjammer]

Why is he suddenly becoming more popular?