Hindsight Is 2020

[Blackacre]

50th Post!!!

Before today's update, some unfinished business: LLR requested that Al Franken give an interview, but since his character is Sam Wang, chose not to send questions or conduct the interview himself. So here's an excerpt from Al Franken's appearance on The Daily Show With Trevor Noah, on Monday, March 25th, 2019.


I get it, you were a serious senator and now you're a serious Presidential candidate. But isn't it also true that most Presidential candidates have books with titles other than Rush Limbaugh Is a Big Fat Idiot and Other Observations?


*laughs*I guess they haven't, but that doesn't tell the full story. Sometimes it's the political comedians who have titles like that who actually have the deepest understanding of what's going on. You know this, I know this, and the people of Minnesota certainly know this with me as their Senator these last eleven years. When I wrote that book, you know, Newt Gingrich had just taken power with the Contract with America and all that, and this new brand of conservative, dare I say radicalism, was starting to become a thing. Now, their ideas were things like cutting food stamps, reforming welfare, tax cuts for the rich, things that had real life disastrous effects on a lot of people. So I, doing the only thing I could at a time, wrote a book that called Rush Limbaugh... a big fat idiot.

Trevor Noah:
*laughs*

Al Franken:
But the actual contents of the book were really a refutation of what Gingrich and the Republicans were selling. So yes, I called Rush Limbaugh a Big Fat Idiot, and I called Fox News Lying Liars, that's indisputable. But what I'm asking the American people is, who has the best interests of the country in mind? The guys who would have taken away our medicare if our backs were turned, or the guy calling them out on it?

Anyway, on with the scheduled programming!

How the Democratic Nominating Process Will Be Structured


DNC Chair Keith Ellison has announced that there will be 15 Democratic Presidential Debates, with the first one being hosted by MSNBC on Saturday, August 3rd, 2019. The Debate stage will hold a maximum of 10 candidates at any one time. If more than 10 candidates are declared, there will be two back-to-back debates. Both debates will be treated with the same level of importance. The first debate will feature every candidate with an odd-numbered placing in the most recent national poll, (1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, and so on) while the second debate will feature everybody else. Podium placement will be randomly assigned. This will continue for the next few debates until candidates either quit or prove to be completely unviable.


As for the debate itself, we’ll have highlights from the exchanges between the candidates and some of the answered questions. For every debate we’ll also include at least one Reader Question, which readers can PM to me and have either directed at one specific candidate or at everybody. The Reader Question(s) will be selected at random among all the questions sent to me after I give the go-ahead but before the debate recap.


Once we reach primaries and caucuses, delegates will be awarded proportionately to all candidates receiving more than 15% of the vote in the state. Superdelegates have been instructed to not support any particular candidate until the DC Primary in April, at which point they will all coalesce around whichever candidate gets the plurality of pledged delegates so a contested convention will be averted.


On the Republican side, who knows. RNC Chair Ivanka Trump has declined to make any statement about possible Primary Debates between President Trump and Senator Cruz.


Next time: More people take the Presidential plunge, plus we take a look at one would-be candidate and their hesitation on entering the fray.
(author's note: now would be a good time to start submitting debate questions! PM me a question you would like to see asked of one of the declared candidates. When new candidates announce, they will also be opened up for debate questions)

[Gass3268]

Where is the DNC and RNC going to be held?

[Blackacre]

Where is the DNC and RNC going to be held?

That's a good question, I suppose we'd know by now.

The Democratic National Convention will take place in Atlanta, Georgia while the Republican National Convention will be in the President's hometown of Manhattan, New York.

[Wells]

Atlas Forum
- Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
-- 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
--- Al Franken will be the nominee

You all sound like this Generic Atlas Poster      YaBB God ★★★★★ Posts: 1129

Al Franken will be the nominee « on: March 26, 2019, 8:56:20 am »I just saw his interview on The Daily Show. He really seems genuine and can connect with voters. He will win the debates by a lot and continue on to be president.

TN Volunteer IndyRep      YaBB God ★★★★★ Posts: 16863

Re: Al Franken will be the nominee « on: March 26, 2019, 9:04:51 am »He literally wrote a book called "Rush Limbaugh Is a Big Fat Idiot" and you think he'll be president? Please.

Spenstar Spenstar 3D        YaBB God ★★★★★ Posts: 4337

Re: Al Franken will be the nominee « on: March 26, 2019, 9:11:19 am » You must be logged in to read this quote. It would be like a reality TV star becoming president. Oh wait.

[BuckeyeNut]

This is pretty good.

Also, your meta-commentary is hilarious, Left.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Loving this so far, great job.
I'm thinking of trying to be a pundit as well- perhaps an Israeli pundit to give a different PoV from the other pundits? Not sure. Do you think it could be helpful?

[BSH]

Hello all, welcome to Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball outlook into the 2020 election season. We’re already facing what looks to be an exciting year of politics, so let’s get started understanding the state of the race.


Even though we are not yet midway through 2019, the 2020 race is well underway, with candidates on both sides of the aisle looking to capitalize on the one thing we could predict about a Trump presidency--it’s failure. Lets first look at the well-populated Democratic field.


The Democrats


Months before Iowa, DNC chair Ellison has already taken a distinct change of tune for the DNC rank-and-file, promising a whopping fifteen debates as opposed to 2016’s nine. The new nature of these debate, promoting equality over hierarchy, is also bound to shake up the field, as it appears the Democrats are trying the exact opposite strategy they used eight years ago--now elevating the lesser-known voices in comparison to the well established ones. This strategy is bound to frustrate top prospects like Senator Warren, the early frontrunner, who will be unable to debate other leading candidates, including whomever is second in the polls, but simultaneously will be randomly assigned podiums--not having the benefit of taking center stage.


Focusing on Warren for a second, we must remind our readers that the early polls are certainly not indicative of the outcome of the race… Remember, at this time in 2016, Fmr. Governor Jeb Bush was still slated as the Republican frontrunner, and only ended up getting about 1% of the total nationwide vote count. However, we must note that this race appears at least at the time being to be a bit more predictable--at least for the Democrats--than in 2016. With a highly unpopular Trump, the progressive Senator Warren is much more in line with the Democratic base than Mr. Bush was in 2016, something that is visible even now. With all of this in mind, we must remind our readers that the debates are bound to elevate some lesser known candidates into the national fray--and thus charisma and message will be important for all Democrats in setting themselves apart from a forcibly equalized field.


With that preview, let’s look at the Republican field.


The Republicans


This is going to be a much harder quest to decipher. We haven’t seen a contested party primary of this scale since the 1980 Democratic Primaries, in which Ted Kennedy attempted to unseat highly unpopular Jimmy Carter, weighed down by malaise, oil prices, and Iran. 2020 is beginning to look eerily similar with Mr. Cruz on this regard, so let’s attempt to understand the state of the race. Remembering 1980, what was once a primary race looked to be in Kennedy’s favor with sub-30% approval ratings for Carter, the Iran Hostage Crisis’ “Rally around the flag” effect helped propel him in ratings, and keep him afloat in the primary race. What President Trump does and says now more than ever is crucial to earn his party’s candidacy, as we expect many Republicans who were disillusioned in 2016, and remain so today with Mr. Trump to be willing to defect to Sen. Cruz, even if his views are more conservative than the Republican mainstream. While the Republican race now is incredibly hard to predict--especially with the prospect of possible new candidates as well as RNC Chair Ivanka Trump’s lack of comment on the Republican primary, any event in the Presidency could save or destroy Trump, and much like Mr. Carter, it looks like a long perhaps final year in office for President Trump.

[Blackacre]

This is pretty good.

Also, your meta-commentary is hilarious, Left.

Thanks! And IKR? He's awesome. He (and Busk Stops Here above) are exactly what I was hoping would happen when I opened this TL to pundits. It's significantly enhanced the TL in ways I couldn't have imagined.

Loving this so far, great job.
I'm thinking of trying to be a pundit as well- perhaps an Israeli pundit to give a different PoV from the other pundits? Not sure. Do you think it could be helpful?

Yes, it would absolutely be helpful! Once you have a specific name in mind (or you could make one up) post it in the thread, I'll update the list on the bottom of page 1, and you'll be all set! Oh and Im super glad you're enjoying this!

[GoTfan]

Excerpt from a Secular Talk segment entitled "DNC Primary Process for 2020"



Okay, so this morning, Keith Ellison, the DNC Chair *he makes a sideways glance at the camera* announced the Democratic Primary process for 2020. He's said there's going to be 15 debates-I'd prefer more but it's already better than 2016-and if more than ten candidates are declared, then the candidates will be divded into two debates on the same evening, each being treated with the same importance.

Okay, so what's my take on this? Well, it's already proving that Keith Ellison's a better Chair than Debbie Wasserman Schultz. 15 debates? That's a lot more than we got in 2016. Now, you guys know that I'm in favour of having as many debates as possible, so I'd prefer 20 at a minimum. As we saw in 2016, the more debates there were, the more people liked Bernie and the less they liked Hillary. So, I believe there should be more, but 15 is good.

Who do I think would be the best candidate for the Democrats to put forward? Honestly, I don't know. I'm still a little frustrated that Sherrod Brown or Russ Feingold aren't running, but that's the way things go sometimes. Honestly, I would tentatively say Elizabeth Warren. You guys know from my interview not that long ago that she's still going strong at 71. No-on cared that Bernie was roughly 1,012 years old when he ran, so why care now?

As for the Republicans, well they've still got Ted Cruz trying to be relevant by competing against Trump. It's almost like *goes into Ted Cruz impression* Meeeeeehhhhhh I'm Ted Cruz meeeehhhhh I'm still cool meeeeehhhhh *end impression* You f***ing kiddin' me? Dude, no-one cares about your crazy theocratic nonsense anymore. No-one cares. You ain't getting nowhere in the primary; the President's daughter is the Chair of the RNC for f***'s sake! So Ted, my advice, give up now son. Save yourself further embarrassment.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Loving this so far, great job.
I'm thinking of trying to be a pundit as well- perhaps an Israeli pundit to give a different PoV from the other pundits? Not sure. Do you think it could be helpful?

Yes, it would absolutely be helpful! Once you have a specific name in mind (or you could make one up) post it in the thread, I'll update the list on the bottom of page 1, and you'll be all set! Oh and Im super glad you're enjoying this!

Tal Schneider, an independent journalist, is pretty much the only Israeli journalist who had any real insight on US politics this election cycle (the mainstream news agencies just presented dumbed-down or outright wrong facts or commentary), so I think I'll assume she became more powerful/well-funded during these 4 years and go with her

[Blackacre]

Loving this so far, great job.
I'm thinking of trying to be a pundit as well- perhaps an Israeli pundit to give a different PoV from the other pundits? Not sure. Do you think it could be helpful?

Yes, it would absolutely be helpful! Once you have a specific name in mind (or you could make one up) post it in the thread, I'll update the list on the bottom of page 1, and you'll be all set! Oh and Im super glad you're enjoying this!

Tal Schneider, an independent journalist, is pretty much the only Israeli journalist who had any real insight on US politics this election cycle (the mainstream news agencies just presented dumbed-down or outright wrong facts or commentary), so I think I'll assume she became more powerful/well-funded during these 4 years and go with her

You got it!

[Blackacre]

Seems like a while since we got a new update, so here's a doozy!

Will He Or Won’t He?

Liberal politicos are reading the tea leaves to see who will join the seven announced candidates for President, but one name in particular sticks out for getting so much attention: John Bel Edwards. The Governor of Louisiana and Best Southern Democrat Named John Edwards, he has a lot of qualities that make him an attractive proposition for Democratic nominee. He’s a skilled campaigner and good orator, has an impressive record as Governor (which amounts to cleaning up Jindal’s mess) and is very popular for a Democrat in such a Republican state. As of Mid-march 2019, he has a 60% approval rating and polls ahead of his likely Republican challengers by numbers ranging from 4 to 12 points, making him a near-lock for re-election in November.


That’s the issue though; the 2020 campaign is shaping up to match 2016’s in length, and in order to be taken seriously, Edwards would have to declare as a candidate by late July to qualify for the first debate. Doing so would prevent him from campaigning for re-election, and a loss there would destroy his chances of becoming the Democratic Nominee. Edwards would be a solid Presidential contender, making the question even more daunting.


”The people of Louisiana will be watching Governor Edwards closely to see if he puts his personal ambitions before their interests.” -- Former Rep. and Gubernatorial Candidate Charles Boustany Jr.


Governor Edwards has declined to comment about the matter. But enough about hypotheticals. While Edwards mulled it over, a handful of Democrats actually took the plunge!


Sunday, March 24th, 2019

It disheartens me to see a President as despicable as Donald Trump. For the last three years I’ve gotten calls every day from concerned constituents, wondering if they’re going to be wrongly deported, wondering if they’ll have to join a registry just for being Muslim, wondering if they’ll lose their jobs because of the President’s temper tantrum with China. We need to make sure that history remembers Donald Trump not as a representation of what America stands for, but as a mistake that we corrected at the first possible chance. I would like to be given that chance.

There was noise about Washington Senator Patty Murray joining the fray, but to the surprise of many it was her junior senator Maria Cantwell who ran instead. She’s one of the younger Democrats running, and has a decent record of 18 years in the Senate under her belt, but a few breaks from the Democratic mold might be too much for her to overcome.


With three new additions, let’s take a look at our national polling:
 
If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?
Sen. Warren: 14%
Mayor de Blasio: 13%
Sen. Wyden: 11%
Gov. Wolf: 9%
Sen. Booker: 8%
Sen. Franken: 8%
Sen. Baldwin: 5%
Gov. Brown: 4%
Gov. Cuomo: 3%
Sen. Cantwell: 3%


The current top tier seems to be Warren, de Blasio, and Wyden. Among the portion of the party that was once considered the establishment, Booker is the favourite, while Wolf and Franken are notable for being the only midwesterners to crack 5%. Bad signs here for many candidates, but with the debates specifically designed to give everybody a shot, this remains anyone’s game.


Next time: We’ll give the Democrats a break and look at what’s happening on the Republican side!
(author's note: The pictures are working again! sli.mg >>>> Imgur)
(nope! sli.mg got taken down. This is a mess, isn't it)

[NeverAgain]

The clown car is filling! I will be up with Nate Silver's 538 electoral map along with analysis of the Democratic field.

[Blackacre]

The clown car is filling! I will be up with Nate Silver's 538 electoral map along with analysis of the Democratic field.

Yay! I've been looking forward to that And yes, it's filling, but it's actually not quiiite full yet

[Kingpoleon]

I'd like to see Wyden do an interview with Geraldo Rivera or John Stossel, preferably the former. Al Franken doing an interview with Scarborough would be interesting.

(Posting this in public in case someone else thinks it's a good idea. I might do it.)

[America Needs R'hllor]

A transcript of a segment from Tal Schneider's new Political Analysis show, The Plog Show

Hello and welcome, viewers and readers! This is Tal Schneider, and we're here for another Political Update from the Plog. And of course, we will begin with the election for the Presidency of the United States, which, if our own politicians don't decide to mess with Political journalists and create their own election, will be the first order of business for quite a long time.

The race is heating up, and already the Democratic field looks set to be one of the biggest ever for this party. Will this have a negative affect for them in the General Election, or a positive one? We cannot know for sure, as election resluts in the last 20 years were mixed on that regard. On the one hand, a small field is more likely to cause a bitter fight and a split in support between two candidates, which could leave the losing candidate's supporters bitter, like what happened in 2016 between Clinton and Sanders. The Republicans, meanwhile, had a large field, and it seemed like despite Trump's attacks on his opponents, their supporters weren't particularly alienated. Meanwhile, a large field can cause the appearance of petty infighting between engorged egos, like what happened to the Republicans in 2012, so that's also something to take note of.

But let's look at the current field of candidates for the Democratic Nomination:


Certainly, the race is heating up fast. I think what's really interesting is the large amount of female candidates, compromising almost half of the field. Could that be a result of Hillary Clinton's success? That must've contributed to it, at the very least.

Elizabeth Warren is now slightly leading the field with about 14% in national polling, with Mayor de Blasio just behind her at 13%, and Senator Ron Wyden at 11%. That's, by the way, a substantial decrease for Warren and Wyden, and an increase for de Blasio. A trend? We can't know, but the race seems so close that we can't really point to a frontrunner.

It seems like much of it will come down to the debates, scheduled for July, where everyone will have an equal voice. There, at least some candidates will probably be able to distinguish themselves, for good or bad.

But if I had to make an assumption, I'd say that it will come down to a race between Warren, Booker, and Franken. Cantwell, Wolf and Brown just aren't well-known enough, and save for a fantastic debate showing, will find it very hard to emerge from the pack and interest the lower information voters. Meanwhile, Andrew Cuomo will find it almost impossible to get the populist wing of the party to like him, and I don't see a wide path for Wyden to increase his support from his core base of Libertarian Democrats. The ones who I believe are the likeliest to emerge as frontrunners among the others are Mayor de Blasio, who could face critisicm for his stewardship in New York City, and Tammy Baldwin, who could face a name recognition problem.


Meanwhile, no new developments in the Republican battle between President Trump and Senator Cruz, but with Trump so unpopular, anything can happen. We shall have to wait and see.

But that's it for Political blabbering today- tune in next time, as we're going to have a very special guest interviewed here!

[zorkpolitics]

With ten candidates running and a 15% threshold needed to get delegates, what if none of them get 15% in the early primaries, will the delegates be uncommitted or just never assigned?
Could a clown car go through the primaries and no one gets any delegates?

[LLR]

With ten candidates running and a 15% threshold needed to get delegates, what if none of them get 15% in the early primaries, will the delegates be uncommitted or just never assigned?
Could a clown car go through the primaries and no one gets any delegates?

DNC rules allow for the top two candidates to get delegates in this situation

[Blackacre]

Next update is coming soon, and since it's about the Republicans, here's something kind of relevant:



(yes, the date is off but the trump tweet generator I use can't change it)

[Wells]

Atlas Forum
- Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
-- 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
--- John Bel Edwards Please

Whiter Trash Southern Gothic      YaBB God ★★★★★ Posts: 6515

John Bel Edwards Please « on: April 9, 2019, 4:13:22 am »JBE if you're listening please run I promise I'll vote for you. And I also give you high odds of winning. The people want you.

Atlas Forum
- Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
-- 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
--- Sabato's Crystal Ball Megathread

Mr. Morden Mr. Morden    YaBB God ★★★★★ Posts: 39246

Sabato's Crystal Ball Megathread « on: April 1, 2019, 5:46:25 pm »Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has new ratings for the 2020 primaries. (Link)  Interesting highlights: They have an opinion on the Trump presidency You must be logged in to read this quote.   They are bearish on Warren You must be logged in to read this quote. And they also portray the Republican primary as competitive, despite polls showing Trump with a solid lead (though that may change).

Rs are Racist wolfentoad66     YaBB God ★★★★★ Posts: 5963

Re: Sabato's Crystal Ball Megathread « on: April 1, 2016, 5:58:42 am »What is this? Where is Larry Sabato? This reads like it was written by an amateur from Texas or something, not an expert political commentator.

FortyFive UNPC      YaBB God ★★★★★ Posts: 678

Re: Sabato's Crystal Ball Megathread « on: April 1, 2016, 6:01:08 am »Saboto's ball is so biased. Trump's presidency has been successful in every way and many Americans think that. This and the contested primary are faked by the media and cnn to try to make Trump look bad. Ridiculous.

Atlas Forum
- Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
-- 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
--- Cruz will win

RINO Tom RINO Tom   YaBB God ★★★★★ Posts: 5153

Cruz will win « on: April 10, 2016, 10:32:53 pm »Trump is now going on another Twitter tirade. This is his fourth or fifth this week (I lost count Monday). It's very clear now that his lack of experience and unpredictability have been detrimental to this nation. Most voters see this and will soundly reject him in November, unless we do something about it. Republicans aren't stupid. They will learn the only way to survive is to take a chance. Cruz will win the nomination and he will go on to be the forty-sixth President of the United States.

TN Volunteer IndyRep      YaBB God ★★★★★ Posts: 16897

Re: Cruz will win « on: April 10, 2019, 10:34:15 am »lol

evergreen YaBB God ★★★★★ Posts: 17013

Re: Cruz will win « on: April 10, 2019, 10:37:21 am » You must be logged in to read this quote. lol

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Atlas Forum
- Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
-- 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
--- John Bel Edwards Please

Whiter Trash Southern Gothic      YaBB God ★★★★★ Posts: 6515

John Bel Edwards Please « on: April 9, 2019, 4:13:22 am »JBE if you're listening please run I promise I'll vote for you. And I also give you high odds of winning. The people want you.

Atlas Forum
- Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
-- 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
--- Sabato's Crystal Ball Megathread

Mr. Morden Mr. Morden    YaBB God ★★★★★ Posts: 39246

Sabato's Crystal Ball Megathread « on: April 1, 2019, 5:46:25 pm »Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has new ratings for the 2020 primaries. (Link) Interesting highlights: They have an opinion on the Trump presidency You must be logged in to read this quote.   They are bearish on Warren You must be logged in to read this quote. And they also portray the Republican primary as competitive, despite polls showing Trump with a solid lead (though that may change).

Rs are Racist wolfentoad66     YaBB God ★★★★★ Posts: 5963

Re: Sabato's Crystal Ball Megathread « on: April 1, 2016, 5:58:42 am »What is this? Where is Larry Sabato? This reads like it was written by an amateur from Texas or something, not an expert political commentator.

FortyFive UNPC      YaBB God ★★★★★ Posts: 678

Re: Sabato's Crystal Ball Megathread « on: April 1, 2016, 6:01:08 am »Saboto's ball is so biased. Trump's presidency has been successful in every way and many Americans think that. This and the contested primary are faked by the media and cnn to try to make Trump look bad. Ridiculous.

Atlas Forum
- Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
-- 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
--- Cruz will win

RINO Tom RINO Tom   YaBB God ★★★★★ Posts: 5153

Cruz will win « on: April 10, 2016, 10:32:53 pm »Trump is now going on another Twitter tirade. This is his fourth or fifth this week (I lost count Monday). It's very clear now that his lack of experience and unpredictability have been detrimental to this nation. Most voters see this and will soundly reject him in November, unless we do something about it. Republicans aren't stupid. They will learn the only way to survive is to take a chance. Cruz will win the nomination and he will go on to be the forty-sixth President of the United States.

TN Volunteer IndyRep      YaBB God ★★★★★ Posts: 16897

Re: Cruz will win « on: April 10, 2019, 10:34:15 am »lol

evergreen YaBB God ★★★★★ Posts: 17013

Re: Cruz will win « on: April 10, 2019, 10:37:21 am » You must be logged in to read this quote. lol

nuice

[Wells]

Disclaimer: The inclusion of any poster in my posts in this thread doesn't necessarily mean I like or dislike them. And if you don't like the way you're portrayed, then PM me or something (not that you should really care).

[BSH]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

*cries* I've been discovered

[The Other Castro]

This is amazing and hilarious.

[Blackacre]

This is amazing and hilarious.

Thanks! I'm glad you like it! (though I think Left's been providing most of the comedy)

BTW guys, I have the next few updates saved and ready to post, but I'm waiting on an analysis from my friend (he knows who he is) to be posted here before I continue. So in the meantime, here's a Warren rally!

Friday, April 5th, 2019


We knew then, and we sure as hell know now, that everything that comes out of Donald Trump's mouth is a lie! We see what happens when the President is a thin-skinned, authoritarian bully. He and his cronies get millions in tax breaks, and do we get anything? No! That's why in nineteen months we'll show Donald Trump what happens when the President forgets us! We'll take this country back from the plutocrats and the authoritarians and the corporate interests, and we'll have a government that fights for all of us!