Westchester and Nassau

[King of Kensington]

From American Factfinder.

College graduates:

Westchester  46.1%
Nassau  42.3%
Suffolk  33.5%

College graduates, NHWs:

Westchester  56.3%
Nassau  46.8%
Suffolk  37%

Graduate or professional degree:

Westchester  22.7%
Nassau  19%
Suffolk  15.1%

Per capita income:

Westchester  $48,487
Nassau  $42,949
Suffolk  $33,756

Per capita income, NHWs:

Westchester  $64,730
Nassau  $51,067
Suffolk  $43,825

[King of Kensington]

This article from 1999 - when the Clintons were looking to move to Westchester.  Northern Westchester is described as "Republican territory."

http://www.nydailynews.com/archives/news/clintons-country-chic-feel-home-westchester-article-1.827042

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Did Hillary do as well as Obama on the Gold Coast (northern Nassau)? It's pretty affluent there.

[jaichind]

Where I live in Westchester, Scarsale, clearly swung toward Clinton.  We will have to look at the results on a town by town basis but my hunch is the Westchester swung toward Clinton South of White Plains and swung toward Trump North of White Plains.  Northern Westchester are a lot more like Putnum County and Duchess County.  White Plains represents the partisan division between NYC and Upstate NY.

This last weekend I drove my family to Northern Westchester for a visit to a park.  On the way there we passed by Chappaqua and I pointed out to my 5 year old son who have been following the election that Hilliary Clinton lives there.  And on the way back we passed by Donald J. Trump State Park

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_J._Trump_State_Park

This part was land Trump bought years ago to build a golf course but in the end it was not approved.  So he donated the land to NY State and it was converted to a park named after him. 

Yea i pass by donald j trump state park often. Im wondering how democratic white plains is since its actually mostly houses and trump actually owns 2 buildings near that shopping center. Glad to see, people from westchester here.

White Plains is quite Democratic these days.  The surge of hosing prices in NYC has driven a lot of single White Liberal NYC would be residents over to White Plains in the wealthier parts.  In the lower income areas there has been a surge of URM.  URM has also been moving into Yonkers in large numbers as well in addition to White Plains.

[King of Kensington]

Did Hillary do as well as Obama on the Gold Coast (northern Nassau)? It's pretty affluent there.

I suspect she did better than Obama on the North Shore, but Trump outperformed Romney on the South Shore.

[Tintrlvr]

From American Factfinder.

College graduates:

Westchester  46.1%
Nassau  42.3%
Suffolk  33.5%

College graduates, NHWs:

Westchester  56.3%
Nassau  46.8%
Suffolk  37%

Graduate or professional degree:

Westchester  22.7%
Nassau  19%
Suffolk  15.1%

Per capita income:

Westchester  $48,487
Nassau  $42,949
Suffolk  $33,756

Per capita income, NHWs:

Westchester  $64,730
Nassau  $51,067
Suffolk  $43,825

This shows the important differences. It's the NHW figures that matter, and they show a substantial difference. The black and Latino voters are not much different in the two counties, which smoothes over the large differences between whites when you look at overall statistics (and also income/education affect voting patterns among blacks and Latinos both less and differently than among white voters).

Also shows why Suffolk was more Trump-friendly than Nassau.

[King of Kensington]

Nate Silver draws the contrast between Westchester and Suffolk.  Nassau sort of stands in between.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/education-not-income-predicted-who-would-vote-for-trump/

[Smash255]

LI map by Precinct

http://politics.newsday.com/election-results-map/?office1=105&office2=67&

[King of Kensington]

So traditional patterns basically held up.  What were the swings from Obama/Romney like?

[jimrtex]

This seems to just be following a trend that's been happening over the last 10 years or so.  Inner cities going even more overwhelmingly democratic and the inner suburbs going democratic, the outer suburbs going republican and the rural areas going very republican.  Basically the further you get out from a city the more republican it gets.  If it's a big city like New York or DC it takes longer to reach the republican ring around the city.  If it's a small city like Pittsburgh the republican ring is closeby.

Nassau and Westchester both border on NYC. So, in this particular case, your explanation does not apply.

Westchester borders the Bronx, Nassau borders Queens.

There is no equivalent to Yonkers in Nassau.

[Smash255]

So traditional patterns basically held up.  What were the swings from Obama/Romney like?

Generally the upper middle class to wealthy areas swung to Clinton, the more working class mostly white areas swung to Trump  Some precincts swung 20-30 points either way.  Sands Point precinct went to Romney by less than 1 point, went to Clinton by 31.  Some Garden City precincts, although still strong for Trump, swung by 20 points.  A Mastic Beach precinct won by Obama by 18, was won by Trump by 22.  A precinct won by Obama by 5 in Shirley, was won by Trump by 29.  Another one won by Obama by 8 was won by Trump by 33.  There were a bunch of other precincts in that area which had very hard swings.

Found the other link I was looking for, you can pull up both 2016 and 2012

http://projects.newsday.com/long-island/politics/how-long-island-voted/

[jaichind]

So traditional patterns basically held up.  What were the swings from Obama/Romney like?

Generally the upper middle class to wealthy areas swung to Clinton, the more working class mostly white areas swung to Trump  Some precincts swung 20-30 points either way.  Sands Point precinct went to Romney by less than 1 point, went to Clinton by 31.  Some Garden City precincts, although still strong for Trump, swung by 20 points.  A Mastic Beach precinct won by Obama by 18, was won by Trump by 22.  A precinct won by Obama by 5 in Shirley, was won by Trump by 29.  Another one won by Obama by 8 was won by Trump by 33.  There were a bunch of other precincts in that area which had very hard swings.

Found the other link I was looking for, you can pull up both 2016 and 2012

http://projects.newsday.com/long-island/politics/how-long-island-voted/

Thanks for the link.  Too bad there is not one for Westchester so I cannot look up how Scarsdale swung.  That sort of data will not be around until months from now.  For me one good proxy for how Scarsdale might have swung would be to look at how Old Westbury in LI swung.  Doing a quick lookup at the Old Westbury precincts shows they went from around Romney 58 Obama 40 in 2012 to something like Clinton 55 Trump 42.  That sounds about right would pretty much match by guess on how Scardale swung in this election once I account for a hidden Trump vote in Scarsdale which I was certain existed.

[Fuzzy Bear]

This seems to just be following a trend that's been happening over the last 10 years or so.  Inner cities going even more overwhelmingly democratic and the inner suburbs going democratic, the outer suburbs going republican and the rural areas going very republican.  Basically the further you get out from a city the more republican it gets.  If it's a big city like New York or DC it takes longer to reach the republican ring around the city.  If it's a small city like Pittsburgh the republican ring is closeby.

Nassau and Westchester both border on NYC. So, in this particular case, your explanation does not apply.

Westchester borders the Bronx, Nassau borders Queens.

There is no equivalent to Yonkers in Nassau.

Nassau County has a local/national dichotomy.  It is Democratic in national elections, but it has a strong local GOP that was the one of the last "boss-driven" organization in NY. 

Suffolk County is more Democratic on the local level, but less Democratic in state and national elections.

[jaichind]

There is no equivalent to Yonkers in Nassau.

Frankly, given the economic and fiscal disasters in Yonkers which really never got resolved I prefer if Yonkers, Mt Vernon and perhaps even New Rochelle joined either Bronx or formed its own county.

[Smash255]

This seems to just be following a trend that's been happening over the last 10 years or so.  Inner cities going even more overwhelmingly democratic and the inner suburbs going democratic, the outer suburbs going republican and the rural areas going very republican.  Basically the further you get out from a city the more republican it gets.  If it's a big city like New York or DC it takes longer to reach the republican ring around the city.  If it's a small city like Pittsburgh the republican ring is closeby.

Nassau and Westchester both border on NYC. So, in this particular case, your explanation does not apply.

Westchester borders the Bronx, Nassau borders Queens.

There is no equivalent to Yonkers in Nassau.

Nassau County has a local/national dichotomy.  It is Democratic in national elections, but it has a strong local GOP that was the one of the last "boss-driven" organization in NY. 

Suffolk County is more Democratic on the local level, but less Democratic in state and national elections.

Both counties were traditionally Republican on the local level until the late 90's, though Democrats were generally strong in Long Beach, Glen Cove, Town of North Hempstead, Huntington and Babylon.

Democrats actually made the local gains in Nassau in the late 90's after the county's finances were in complete shambles.  They took the Legislature in 99, and Suozzi won CE by 30 points in 01.  They pretty much kept strong locally though much of the 2000's, though the Town of Hempatead and Oyster Bay remained very strong for the GOP.  Suffolk then hadd its move Democratic during the 2000's as wel.

The main difference is Suffolk generally stayed Democratic locally, while the GOP took back the CE in 09 (very narrowly) and then the legislature as well.  A bit of gerrymandering made taking back the legislature very difficult for the Democrats.  Now with the GOP back solidly in control, Nassau's finances are in the toilet once again, add in Mangano and Venditto's indictments and 2017 is shaping up to be a rough year for the Nassau GOP.

[Erc]

There is no equivalent to Yonkers in Nassau.

Frankly, given the economic and fiscal disasters in Yonkers which really never got resolved I prefer if Yonkers, Mt Vernon and perhaps even New Rochelle joined either Bronx or formed its own county.

Leaving Pelham linked to the rest of Westchester by a single underpass under the Hutch?

In any event, an anecdote for the thread.

The only person I know who voted for Trump (apart from those who I met in the MN GOP caucus/convention process) is someone who moved from Westchester to Suffolk after high school because Westchester was too liberal for his tastes.

The simple answer may just be that Long Island is trash, as we've always known.

[pikachu]

Westchester's also a bit less white than LI, right? Also, it has more densely populated inner suburbs I think.

[King of Kensington]

Westchester is "liberal elite", LI is not. 

[Napoleon XIV]

Leaving Pelham linked to the rest of Westchester by a single underpass under the Hutch?

In any event, an anecdote for the thread.

The only person I know who voted for Trump (apart from those who I met in the MN GOP caucus/convention process) is someone who moved from Westchester to Suffolk after high school because Westchester was too liberal for his tastes.

The simple answer may just be that Long Island is the promised land, as we've always known.

Saw you had a little typo there.  All fixed now.

[Smash255]

Westchester's also a bit less white than LI, right? Also, it has more densely populated inner suburbs I think.

Westchester is a bit less whit.  The population density of the inner suburbs are similar, and Nassau has a little more than double the density Westchester does.

[jaichind]

I could not find any data yet but Upshot reported

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/23/upshot/how-the-obama-coalition-crumbled-leaving-an-opening-for-trump.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot&action=click&contentCollection=upshot&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront

That Scarsdale went to Clinton by 57% which implies that Trump got around 19% versus around 40% for Romney back in 2012.  As I pointed out before, in my circle of friends that live in Scarsdale around 2/3 of them voted Romney in 2012 and zero (except for me) voted Trump this time around.  I guess what I found was quite predictive on how Scarsdale would go.  I suspect in Bronxsville which is the non-Jewish version of Scarsdale we would see similar swings but with a higher Romney/Trump numbers by around 5% or so.  I was sure some of my friends were hidden Trump voters but looking at these numbers that does not seem to be the case.  If my friends were indicative of how Scarsdale would go then it is clear that if Kasich ran he would get 45% of the Scarsdale vote at least since around 80% of my friends would have voted Kasich over Clinton.  Any if was Sanders vs Trump I think it could be a 3 way split between Sanders Trump and Johnson in Scarsdale since in that situation around 1/3 of my friends would vote Trump, 1/3 of my friends would vote Johnson and 1/3 would just not vote.  Not one would vote Sanders.  So as toxic as Trump is in my circle of friends, Sanders is worse.   I will have to find out eventually, but I wonder if the GOP vote held up in Eastchester which is right next to Scarsdale but is more of a middle class area than upper middle/upper class with a large number of Italians.  Eastchester went Romeny in 2012.  I suspect Trump lost ground in Eastchester but most likely only in the single digits relative to 2012.

[jaichind]

I found the link to Westchester results

https://a.tiles.mapbox.com/v4/lohud.2emddh2l/page.html?access_token=pk.eyJ1IjoibG9odWQiLCJhIjoiNFV1V2RlOCJ9.eAM4e2I3IsPc9bxAxOxOVQ#11/41.1313/-73.8068

Wow, looks like Eastchester might have swung toward Trump while as I pointed out before Scarsdale swung hard toward Clinton.  In fact the strongest Trump Election District in Eastchester (in theory Yonkers but it is right across Eastchester and the demographics/income profile of that district is pretty much like Eastchester.  Also it is very heavy Italian concentration district)  As I expected, Mount Pleasant and Northern Westchester went Trump.

What is interesting about the Scarsale results is they are correlated by income.  The higher income the Scarsdale district (I know Scarsdale pretty well) the worst the vote is for Trump.  

[jaichind]

If you take where I live in Scarsdale there are great diversity in how places in Scarsdale voted and how neighboring towns like Eastchester and Yonkers voted where I drive to and from often.  It would be interesting to see what sort of places voted Trump or Clinton.

For example, the high income Fox Meadows part of Scarsdale went very heavy Clinton where a representative house in that area would be


So people (pretty much all White or some Asians) who live in places like this went 78-18 for Clinton.


In the middle class heavy Italian parts of Eastcheaster went heavy for Trump.  In fact the election district where this house is in


So people (pretty much 100% White and mostly Italian) who live in places like this went 71-28 for Trump.


In the apartment complexs in Yonkers the vote went very heavy for Clinton

 
So people (very high concentration of URM with mostly Latinos) who live in places like this went 82-17 for Clinton.


Of course not all people that live in multi-member house in the overall area I live in Westchester went Clinton.  There are parts of Eastchester where there are fairly heavy in terms of apartments that are middle/lower middle class.   For example this area went heavy for Trump


So people (pretty much 100% White with a good deal of East European immigrants) who live in place like this went 61-36 for Trump.