Who is more likely to lose in 2018? Flake or Heller?

[Kingpoleon]

I think Heller is more likely to lose if he runs again, if only because the Nevada Democratic bench is far more willing to run and has a much more competitive PVI.

[Xing]

Definitely Heller. I think he'll definitely be the underdog, while Flake probably starts out favored.

[Maxwell]

Flake by far - he'll have a lot of trouble in the primary. I say he only has a 55% chance of winning the primary, but if he makes it out he has an 65-70% chance of winning re-election.

Heller has a slightly worse shot at winning re-election out-right, but he has nothing to fear in the primary. So I think it balances out to where Heller has a much better shot of winning re-election.

[Mr. Smith]

Heller barely won against a really crappy campaign in 2012, and now since state's seem to vote by President approvals these days, a simple "He's R like trump" should sink him.

Flake on the other hand's a bit of a favorite. But I could see Mark Kelly pulling it off.

[Kingpoleon]

Flake by far - he'll have a lot of trouble in the primary. I say he only has a 55% chance of winning the primary, but if he makes it out he has an 65-70% chance of winning re-election.

Heller has a slightly worse shot at winning re-election out-right, but he has nothing to fear tin the primary. So I think it balances out to where Heller has a much better shot of winning re-election.

Flake's strongest challenger would be Ben Quayle or Jan Brewer, but someone like Matt Salmon, David Schweikert, Kelli Ward, Laura Ingraham, or Sarah Palin, is far more likely.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I don't see Flake losing if he makes it out of the primary, and I don't know if he'll get a serious primary challenger or not. I kind of doubt he will. Kelli "Chemtrail" Ward is not a serious candidate. Arizona had crazy minority turnout this year and still went red for Trump. The race starts out as Lean R and moves to Likely R if Flake gets renominated.

I also think Nevada starts out as Lean R, but a lot here depends on how aggressively Dems target him. They have a couple of freshman congressmen and Dina Titus and a fairly slim bench other than that if I understand things correctly. If they're playing defense in all the states where they're overextended, they might not want to spend a lot of money in Nevada. Then again, it doesn't look like a horribly expensive place to run a campaign, and Dingy Harry still lives there.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Heller barely won against a really crappy campaign in 2012, and now since state's seem to vote by President approvals these days, a simple "He's R like trump" should sink him.

Flake on the other hand's a bit of a favorite. But I could see Mark Kelly pulling it off.

Ah, I think Heller could be saved if the R gubernatorial candidate recaptures the Sandoval magic.

[Maxwell]

I don't see Flake losing if he makes it out of the primary, and I don't know if he'll get a serious primary challenger or not. I kind of doubt he will. Kelli "Chemtrail" Ward is not a serious candidate. Arizona had crazy minority turnout this year and still went red for Trump. The race starts out as Lean R and moves to Likely R if Flake gets renominated.

I also think Nevada starts out as Lean R, but a lot here depends on how aggressively Dems target him. They have a couple of freshman congressmen and Dina Titus and a fairly slim bench other than that if I understand things correctly. If they're playing defense in all the states where they're overextended, they might not want to spend a lot of money in Nevada. Then again, it doesn't look like a horribly expensive place to run a campaign, and Dingy Harry still lives there.

I think Flake has been far more "disloyal" than McCain has in recent years, and he doesn't have McCain's skills. I think he'll receive a more serious challenger than Kelli Ward.

[Kingpoleon]

Heller barely won against a really crappy campaign in 2012, and now since state's seem to vote by President approvals these days, a simple "He's R like trump" should sink him.

Flake on the other hand's a bit of a favorite. But I could see Mark Kelly pulling it off.

Ah, I think Heller could be saved if the R gubernatorial candidate recaptures the Sandoval magic.

I think the Democrats' biggest fear in Nevada is Sandoval and Heller trading jobs.

[KingSweden]

Heller barely won against a really crappy campaign in 2012, and now since state's seem to vote by President approvals these days, a simple "He's R like trump" should sink him.

Flake on the other hand's a bit of a favorite. But I could see Mark Kelly pulling it off.

Ah, I think Heller could be saved if the R gubernatorial candidate recaptures the Sandoval magic.

I think the Democrats' biggest fear in Nevada is Sandoval and Heller trading jobs.

^^^^

I don't think Sandoval wants to be in the Senate, though

[Lief 🗽]

Unfortunately it looks like the Bernie cult will be dismantling the Reid machine in Nevada because Harry Reid told them to stop throwing chairs at people once, so Heller should be safe.

[Orser67]

Heller is more likely to lose in the general, but Flake is much more likely to lose in the primary. I went with Heller because McCain was able to win the AZ 2016 primary by a decent margin, and because I don't think either is a strong favorite in the general during a Trump mid-term.

[JMT]

Heller barely won against a really crappy campaign in 2012, and now since state's seem to vote by President approvals these days, a simple "He's R like trump" should sink him.

Flake on the other hand's a bit of a favorite. But I could see Mark Kelly pulling it off.

Ah, I think Heller could be saved if the R gubernatorial candidate recaptures the Sandoval magic.

I think the Democrats' biggest fear in Nevada is Sandoval and Heller trading jobs.

This. If they switch, I think they both will be favorites for the new job they are running for. Republicans would be quite happy if they could pull this off

[MT Treasurer]

It's too early to write him off, but I don't have much confidence in Heller winning reelection after what happened in 2012 and 2016. Sandoval running for Senate and Heller running for Governor would be excellent.

[pikachu]

Imo, Heller's pretty much done.

[I’m not Stu]

Dean Heller. Nevada has been turning against Republicans despite the Trump wave (even though Heller does not support Trump). Democrats now control both houses of the NV legislature. Democrats now control 3 out of 4 NV's House seats.

[Horsemask]

I voted Heller.

[I’m not Stu]

Flake is more popular than Heller.

[hopper]

Heller-Because Nevada is more Dem than AZ.

[Maxwell]

Flake is more popular than Heller.

(citation please)

In fact I can cite polls that show Heller is WAAAAY more popular than Flake. Morning Consult had a series of polls with approval rating of US Senators - Heller has a 48% approval rating (and only a 22% disapproval rating), while Flake has a 42% approval rating (and a 35% disapproval rating).

I would not under-estimate Heller now that he has the seat - smiley blank "moderate" Republicans are pretty hard to knock off as long as they actually haven't done anything moderate that would rock the boat any, and Heller has followed that model to a T.

Flake, on the other hand, has spent his time consistently rocking the boat in terms of issues he disagrees with among the general Republican populace. Flake's win in 2012 wasn't terribly impressive, he severely under-performed W. Mitt Romney in a state trending away from the Republicans. I think even if Flake makes it through the primary he will face what Lincoln Chafee faced in 2006 - being severely wounded from a Republican primary while facing a Democrat challenger who may not be ideal but can probably get the job done (fill in the blank for Democrat nominee).