2018 Senate Rankings

[MT Treasurer]

I never said that. But even if we assume that Trump is at -8/9 nationally in 2018 (which obviously wouldn't be good), that doesn't mean he will unpopular in a state like MT or WV. A lot of his opposition is really concentrated in deep blue, heavily populated states like CA and NY. So while that could help Ds in the House (especially in suburban areas), it wouldn't have a big impact on the Senate races.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If the repeal of Obamacare is a total bust and immigration reform doesn't go anywhere which were the issues that he campaigned on, and if Trump's approvals are 43% or lower like Obama was in his first midterm; Dems will win in 2018 no matter what.

And the states the Dems need to gain in the Senate with Dina Titus of NV; Kyrsten Sinema of AZ and O'Rorke in TX or a Castro bro will do it for them for control

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ TX isn't happening. Barring some R from another senate class in a competitive-enough state abruptly dying or resigning, the only path for a dem majority in the senate goes through a three-way race in Utah, probably involving Hatch making it through his primary by a hair (goes into the general very damaged), a strong McMullin Independent Candidacy, and Matheson being the dem nominee.

[MAINEiac4434]

^ TX isn't happening. Barring some R from another senate class in a competitive-enough state abruptly dying or resigning, the only path for a dem majority in the senate goes through a three-way race in Utah, probably involving Hatch making it through his primary by a hair (goes into the general very damaged), a strong McMullin Independent Candidacy, and Matheson being the dem nominee.

I think there's a non-zero chance of an inverse MA-Sen 2010 happening if things get that bad, but it's extremely unlikely

MA was a special election held in the early spring, not exactly prime campaign season, with a terrible Democratic candidate.

[MAINEiac4434]

^ TX isn't happening. Barring some R from another senate class in a competitive-enough state abruptly dying or resigning, the only path for a dem majority in the senate goes through a three-way race in Utah, probably involving Hatch making it through his primary by a hair (goes into the general very damaged), a strong McMullin Independent Candidacy, and Matheson being the dem nominee.

I think there's a non-zero chance of an inverse MA-Sen 2010 happening if things get that bad, but it's extremely unlikely

MA was a special election held in the early spring, not exactly prime campaign season, with a terrible Democratic candidate.

Yet it had midterm-level turnout. And TX has a despised incumbent. If it was Cornyn, I wouldn't be writing this.

You're right, actually. Wow, I didn't know the turnout for MA 2010 was so high. It was even higher than 2014.

[MT Treasurer]

^ TX isn't happening. Barring some R from another senate class in a competitive-enough state abruptly dying or resigning, the only path for a dem majority in the senate goes through a three-way race in Utah, probably involving Hatch making it through his primary by a hair (goes into the general very damaged), a strong McMullin Independent Candidacy, and Matheson being the dem nominee.

And even that would require Democrats to hold all their red states, which is even less likely than a D victory in Utah.

[MAINEiac4434]

I never said that. But even if we assume that Trump is at -8/9 nationally in 2018 (which obviously wouldn't be good), that doesn't mean he will unpopular in a state like MT or WV. A lot of his opposition is really concentrated in deep blue, heavily populated states like CA and NY. So while that could help Ds in the House (especially in suburban areas), it wouldn't have a big impact on the Senate races.

I think it very much depends on if he's been able to "bring the jobs back." He might even be lower in states that went to him heavily if they don't see movement on the jobs front.

[NeverAgain]

Maybe it's just my never ending optimism, but I feel this is a pretty likely map.

[Heisenberg]

Maybe it's just my never ending optimism, but I feel this is a pretty likely map.

Ummmm putting Missouri as a tossup and then putting Indiana as leaning R doesn't make sense. I also wouldn't say Ohio is a tossup because at this point it is Sherrod Brown's to lose. Nevada Democrats have a relatively thin bench and I wouldn't put it into leaning D just yet. Wisconsin I think should be leaning D because Duffy will make this seat VERY competitive.

He came out against Gorsuch only minutes after he was announced. Bad idea in a slightly Republican-leaning swing state.

[publicunofficial]

Maybe it's just my never ending optimism, but I feel this is a pretty likely map.

Ummmm putting Missouri as a tossup and then putting Indiana as leaning R doesn't make sense. I also wouldn't say Ohio is a tossup because at this point it is Sherrod Brown's to lose. Nevada Democrats have a relatively thin bench and I wouldn't put it into leaning D just yet. Wisconsin I think should be leaning D because Duffy will make this seat VERY competitive.

He came out against Gorsuch only minutes after he was announced. Bad idea in a slightly Republican-leaning swing state.

Gotta keep that base motivated to come out for you, also no one is going to say "I was going to vote for Brown, but then he voted against some of Trump's justices"

[Littlefinger]

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, MA, MD, NM, NY, RI, VT, WA
Likely D: ME, MI, MN, NJ, PA, VA
Lean D: FL, OH, WI, WV
Tossup: MT, ND, NV
Lean R: AZ, IN, MO
Likely R: TX
Safe R: AL, MI, NE, TN, UT, WY

Anywhere from net gain of D +2 to R +7

[Hindsight was 2020]

WV is R wing but I don't see Manchin losing

[Klartext89]

At least the RNC is taking it seriously and is seeing the big chance of building a long-term GOP Senate majority.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/04/10/exclusive-rnc-chairwoman-ronna-romney-mcdaniel-2018-not-going-concede-anything/

For the Snowflakes: It's a Breitbart interview, so just stay away and cry silently. Thanks.

[TheSaint250]

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NM, NY, RI, WA (13)
Likely D: PA, VA, WI (3)
Lean D: FL, MT, ND, OH, WV (5)
Tilt D: IN (1)

Safe R: AL, MS, NE, TN, TX, UT, WY (7)
Likely R: (0)
Lean R: AZ, NV (2)
Tilt R: (0)

Safe I: VT (1)
Likely I: ME (1)
Lean I: (0)
Tilt I: (0)

Tossup: MO (1)

[KingSweden]

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NM, NY, RI, WA (13)
Likely D: PA, VA, WI (3)
Lean D: FL, MT, ND, OH, WV (5)
Tilt D: IN (1)

Safe R: AL, MS, NE, TN, TX, UT, WY (7)
Likely R: (0)
Lean R: AZ, NV (2)
Tilt R: (0)

Safe I: VT (1)
Likely I: ME (1)
Lean I: (0)
Tilt I: (0)

Tossup: MO (1)

Good ratings. I'd put NV at Tilt R but otherwise agree.

[Cynthia]

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NM, NY, RI, WA (13)
Likely D: PA, VA, WI (3)
Lean D: FL, MT, ND, OH, WV (5)
Tilt D: IN (1)

Safe R: AL, MS, NE, TN, TX, UT, WY (7)
Likely R: (0)
Lean R: AZ, NV (2)
Tilt R: (0)

Safe I: VT (1)
Likely I: ME (1)
Lean I: (0)
Tilt I: (0)

Tossup: MO (1)

I mostly agree. I might put NV into Tilt R but that's it.

[Coraxion]

GOP: 50
Democrats: 45
Tossups: 5

No tossups:

GOP: 52
Democrats: 48

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Moving Ohio to Lean R. Republicans are now favored to gain 3 seats.

[BudgieForce]

Moving Ohio to Lean R. Republicans are now favored to gain 3 seats.

Because of one polling firm with a dubious history? Alright...

[I’m not Stu]

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Very good job! I agree with basically all of it.

[heatcharger]

Tossup
Ohio
Assaultana
North Dakota

Lean D
Wisconsin
West Virginia
Pennsylvania
Nevada
Florida

Likely D/I
Virginia
Michigan
Maine

Lean R
Indiana
Missouri
Arizona

Likely R
Utah
Texas

I expect 4 GOP pickups and 1 Dem pickup. R+3

[Coraxion]

Tied Senate with Pence giving GOP  the majority. Dems hold everything, gain NV and AZ.

[Heisenberg]

Tossup
Ohio
Assautana
North Dakota

Lean D
Wisconsin
West Virginia
Pennsylvania
Nevada
Florida

Likely D/I
Virginia
Michigan
Maine

Lean R
Indiana
Missouri
Arizona

Likely R
Utah
Texas

I expect 4 GOP pickups and 1 Dem pickup. R+3

So come on, you're now jumping on the Assaultana train? LOL, I can't stop laughing when I see that. How will you all react if that becomes an issue for GF next year, and he wins with an even greater precentage with #Assaultgate already well-known. Do you think his apology was insincere? Do you find the punishment to be too soft? Some people think both.

[jamestroll]

Worth noting that that body slam incident with Gianforte was literally the day before the election after most of the voters voted and if my memory is correct I believe reading something about voters calling the Secretary of State's office to see if they could change their vote. Answer: they could not.

Also Quist was a poor candidate for Democrats to run.

Of all the special elections I would read least into MT-AL. Of course special elections have show very little correlation with general election results recently. Though I think we can gather that some sun belt suburbs are trending the Democrats way but not quite there yet and that Midwestern seats may be more elastic for 2018.