2018 Senate Rankings

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

As it stands today:

Without tossups

R+2

[heatcharger]

So come on, you're now jumping on the Assaultana train? LOL, I can't stop laughing when I see that.

You're the only one who thinks it's funny, though.

No? I think it's hilarious.

[Heisenberg]

So come on, you're now jumping on the Assaultana train? LOL, I can't stop laughing when I see that.

You're the only one who thinks it's funny, though.

No? I think it's hilarious.

Glad you think so!

[Xing]

Changing a few ratings. I'm going to be "bold" and say that Ohio is Lean D, rather than overreacting to a single poll taken more than a year before the election.

[_]

Changing a few ratings. I'm going to be "bold" and say that Ohio is Lean D, rather than overreacting to a single poll taken more than a year before the election.

4 polls have Mandel up, though one of them is gravis.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Ohio,_2018

[Xing]

Changing a few ratings. I'm going to be "bold" and say that Ohio is Lean D, rather than overreacting to a single poll taken more than a year before the election.

4 polls have Mandel up, though one of them is gravis.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Ohio,_2018

It's too soon to be putting a lot of stock in polls. Most polls in the latter half of 2015 had Strickland beating Portman, and yet Portman won by over 20. I highly doubt Brown will win by anything like that margin, but it just goes to show how little early polls actually tell us.

[_]

Changing a few ratings. I'm going to be "bold" and say that Ohio is Lean D, rather than overreacting to a single poll taken more than a year before the election.

4 polls have Mandel up, though one of them is gravis.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Ohio,_2018

It's too soon to be putting a lot of stock in polls. Most polls in the latter half of 2015 had Strickland beating Portman, and yet Portman won by over 20. I highly doubt Brown will win by anything like that margin, but it just goes to show how little early polls actually tell us.

Yeah I haven't changed my rating at all based on these either, early polling usually has a lot of errors, but if this trend continues into 2018 I'll consider changing the rating from Tossup.

[Beet]

Safe D/I: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, WA, VT (11)
Likely D: VA, MI, MN, NM, ME (5)
Lean D: PA, MI (2)
Tilt D: WI, FL (2)

Tossup: AZ, NV (2)

Tilt R: WV, ND, MT (3)
Lean R: OH, IN, TX (3)
Likely R: MO (1)
Safe R: AL, MS, NE, TN, UT, WY (6)

[Suburbia]

NJ should be Likely D. Sen. Bob Menendez is under investigation for corruption.

[_]

NJ should be Likely D. Sen. Bob Menendez is under investigation for corruption.

One word, guess what it is?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NV: Toss-Up to Lean D
AZ: Lean R to Toss-Up

Democrats are still in a tough spot, as three of their senators are favored to lose, while another two have 50-50 odds. But the two vulnerable R seats are looking better for Ds with each passing day.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Based on DDHQ poll, AL moves from Safe R to Likely R.

[PoliticalJunkie23]

I guess I'll give my own input on each race, for whatever it's worth.

Alabama (2017): Could potentially be competitive now that Moore is the nominee, but this is Alabama, Doug Jones would need a miracle. Safe R.

Arizona: Jeff Flake isn't very popular, and has been leading the Never Trumper wing of the party (even though he almost always votes in line with Trump). Because of this, I think he'll lose the primary to Kelli Ward, which will make this race ripe for the Democrats, especially now that Sinema is running. Tossup.

California: The new primary system will make this interesting, but the likelihood of two Republicans making it to the general is next to nothing. Safe D.

Connecticut: Chris Murphy is a rising star who represents a liberal state. No chance he'll lose. Safe D.

Delaware: Tom Carper is a long time senator from a blue state that loves moderate, incumbent, white men. Safe D.

Florida: This race is always supposed to be competitive, but it seems Nelson always finds a way to win easily. I think the Republicans have a really good chance if Scott is the nominee, but either way it will be a nail biter. Tossup.

Hawaii: Safe D.

Indiana: Joe Donnelly is basically the Mark Kirk of 2018. The recent scandal with his family company outsourcing to Mexico was the nail in his coffin. Likely R.

Maine: It'll be interesting to see if the Dems nominate a candidate here, which could potentially split the vote and give the seat to a Republican, but Angus King is popular enough in the state that I think he'll hold on. Likely I.

Maryland: Safe D.

Massachusetts: This could actually be competitive if the Republicans get a good candidate and exploit Warren's frequent screw ups, but we're still in the Bay State. Safe D.

Michigan: Debbie Stabenow is well respected in the state, and I don't see her losing to a traditional GOP nominee or Kid Rock. Safe D.

Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar is very popular here. Safe D.

Mississippi: The real contest here will be the GOP primary. A Roy Moore type candidate may try to unseat an establishment Republican like Roger Wicker. Either way, Safe R.

Missouri: McCaskill got blessed with good luck in 2006 and especially 2012. It runs out here. Likely R.

Montana: Jon Tester is popular enough, and will probably get similar margins as Steve Bullock in 2016. Likely D.

Nebraska: It would be a shock if Fischer got less than 60% of the vote. Safe R.

Nevada: Republicans usually do well here in midterms, but I see strong Hispanic turnout in Clark County being Heller's downfall. Lean D.

New Jersey: If Menendez is still around for this, the GOP has a chance, but it's still the Garden State. Likely D.

New Mexico: Martin Heinrich has little name recognition in the state, and Susana Martinez could put up a strong challenge. Until we know the GOP nominee, I'll say Likely D.

New York: Safe D.

North Dakota: Heitkamp is well respected in the state, and Trump showed support for her at a recent speech in the state. I think she'll win in a squeaker, even against Cramer. Lean D.

Ohio: Brown is a liberal crusader in a state where Trump has an above 50% approval rating. Mandel will give him a run for his money, but Brown still has support in blue collar areas. Tossup.

Pennsylvania: Bob Casey is a well respected moderate. If unpopular Pat Toomey could win reelection, so can he. Likely D.

Rhode Island: Unless the Cool Moose Party comes back from the dead, nothing to see here. Safe D.

Tennessee: Corker is retiring, which will cause an interesting primary between establishment Republicans and the Trump wing. Either way, Safe R.

Texas: I really don't see this one being competitive. Texas is still GOP territory, and I'm still convinced 2016 was a fluke. Safe R.

Utah: Safe R.

Vermont: Safe I.

Virginia: Tim Kaine is well liked, and likely nominee Corey Stewart is too pro Trump for this state. Safe D.

Washington: Safe D.

West Virginia: Joe Manchin is a pragmatic centrist, and has deep roots in the state. Unless Trump targets him aggressively, he should get it done. Lean D.

Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin isn't very popular, but her progressive ways could improve her vote share among rural voters, but this is a tough one to grasp. Tossup.

Wyoming: Hahaha. Safe R.  

Well that's my list, sorry if it's too long.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

>70%: solid
>50%: likely
>30%: leaning

Counting Bernie Sanders and Angus King as Democrats and not Independents by the way.

I am still going with this map for the record.

[mcmikk]

Alabama - Moore is what they call in Alabama a "moderate". It would be satisfying to see Jones pull off a miracle, but it's doubtful. 93% R.

Arizona - Flake seems to be excelling at reverse-triangulating. He's managed to piss off liberals and conservatives by being a vocal opponent of Donald Trump while voting for all of his agenda. Thus he's drawn crazy lady and far-right winger Kelli Ward as a primary challenger. He'll first have to tangle with her then turn his attention to tough Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in an environment likely to favor Democrats when/if he makes it to the general election. He's trying to label her as a socialist, but I doubt that's going to stick. It's pure 50/50 tossup at this point. There are too many variables to accurately pin down this race.

California - Progressives seem to not like Feinstein, so they may try to primary her, but even that seems unlikely. Regardless, 99% D.

Connecticut - Chris Murphy is a popular outspoken liberal in a deep blue state. 99% D.

Delaware - This is no 2010. Nothing interesting or competitive. 99% D.

Florida - Florida is the quintessential battleground state. Republicans seem to have a reasonably strong challenger to Bill Nelson in Gov. Rick Scott, but Bill Nelson seems to always find a way to run away with his races. 58% D.

Hawaii - The bluest state in the union. 99% D.

Indiana - Indiana seems like a state ripe for the taking for the GOP, but Donnelly is an incumbent and reasonably popular, and the Republican primary seems to be getting crowded and nasty. Apparently there is some scandal relating to Donnelly's family that I'm unfamiliar with, but I do have a gut feeling that he will ultimately pull it out. 51% D.

Maine - Angus King is popular and I doubt  Democrats will send up a nominee of their own and risk throwing the race to the GOP. Perhaps this race could get interesting if Gov. Paul LePage jumps in, but even then it won't be close. 80% I.

Maryland - Nothing to see here. The Governor's race would be more worth your time. 99% D.

Massachusetts - Elizabeth Warren, while a controversial figure, is a progressive firebrand in a blue liberal state. Her first race in 2012 was somewhat close, but that is unlikely to be so this time around. 99% D.

Michigan - Although a state that Trump won and one where the GOP has made gains, Stabenow seems to be popular and, like Bill Nelson, always seems to run away with her races. I doubt anyone from Kid Rock to Fred Upton would be too likely to change that. 70% D.

Minnesota - Klobuchar is a popular incumbent in a blue state. While there was a scare when it almost flipped to Donald Trump in 2016, Republicans are unlikely to find hope here. 95% D.

Mississippi - Thank God for Mississippi, amirite? Maybe Democrats will do better than expected overall in 2018, that isn't going to carry over much here. If there is a race, it will be the Republican primary. Regardless, it is 99% R.

Missouri - While McCaskill managed to pull off an impressive victory in 2006, Democrats were dominating across the country and Missouri hadn't shifted so hard to the right. She lucked out in 2012 when she went up against Todd "Legitimate Rape" Akin, but there isn't going to be much to save her this time, especially if Attorney General Josh Hawley jumps in, which he is all but guaranteed to do. 57% R.

Montana - Although a state that went heavily for Donald Trump in 2016 and elected Assaultforte to Congress in 2017, it is much kinder to downballot Democrats, seeing as Gov. Steve Bullock was reelected even while sharing a ballot with Donald Trump. Tester is by no means safe, and he will certainly have to fight to hang on to his seat, but he lucked out when Rep. Ryan Zinke became Secretary of the Interior. This race came down to the wire in 2012, and it will likely do the same in 2018. 55% D.

Nebraska - Although Republicans just picked up this seat last election cycle, I would guess a former Senator and Governor would have been more formidable than the margins suggest. 99% R.

Nevada - Dean Heller is on equal footing with Flake in terms of being an endangered Republican incumbent. His coming out against the Obamacare repeal only to later vote for the skinny repeal when it came to a vote is unlikely to make him any friends in a state that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016. He's also drawn a seemingly formidable challenger in Rep. Jacky Rosen. Incumbents always generally have an advantage, but Heller is stuck in a state that seems to lean left in an election year where Democrats are likely to do well. 53% D.

New Jersey - While Menendez is unpopular, especially in the midst of a corruption trial. But in an environment likely to favor the Democrats in a blue state, Republicans are unlikely to gain this one even with Menendez on the ballot. 95% D.

New Mexico - Heinrich isn't particularly special, and Republican Gov. Susana Martinez could run, but even the best possible scenario for Republicans here isn't particularly good. 99% D.

New York - Gillibrand is a hardcore progressive and Trump opponent in a deeply blue state that last reelected her with a whopping 72% of the vote. 99% D

North Dakota - Although North Dakota went for Donald Trump by overwhelming margins in 2016, Heitkamp is a well-liked incumbent in a state that has still sent in Democratic Senators over and over again up until 2010. She is far from safe, but she's in a better position than North Dakota's PVI might suggest. 65% D.

Ohio - Although Sherrod Brown is remarkably liberal for his state, he is a Democratic incumbent in a likely Democratic year. His most likely Republican opponent, Josh Mandel, doesn't have many positive qualities outside of the fact that he is apparently a talented fundraiser. But he significantly under-performed Mitt Romney in 2012, and money can only go so far in a high-profile race. I can't believe he's even of legal age to run for the US Senate. 55% D.

Pennsylvania  - Bob Casey is a fairly inoffensive Democratic incumbent in a state that only just barely went for Donald Trump in 2016, and just barely reelected Senator Pat Toomey. If Toomey can win reelection even when Trump was dragging down down-ballot Republicans, Bob Casey can win with the electoral winds at his back. 67% D.

Rhode Island - While unseating Lord Chafee in 2006 was reasonably close, Whitehouse is going to easily cruise to reelection as he did in 2012. 99% D.

Tennessee - While Corker's retirement opened up this race to various potential Republican candidates, the Republican primary will likely be the entire race. Apparently Democrat James Mackler has been getting some hype, come on. It's Tennessee. 99% R.

Texas - Although this Republican stronghold ended up voting slightly to the left of Iowa in 2016, that was more likely Donald Trump's doing than a waning Republican brand here. Ted Cruz isn't exactly likable, but he's a very conservative Republican incumbent in a Republican state. 2018 will be a signal as to whether 2016 was a fluke, or if Texas is shifting to the left. Ted Cruz has a young and reasonably strong challenger in Rep. Beto O'Rourke, who appears to be running as an unapologetic liberal Democrat. If O'Rourke can hold Cruz to single digits, that will be impressive in and of itself. If he wins, that's a sign that Republicans nationwide are having a meltdown. Maybe if he makes hay of the porn tweet... 75% R.

Utah - Orrin Hatch is super unpopular, with a vast majority of Utah voters not wanting him to run for a 753rd term. There is a perfect storm that involves former Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson as well as Egg McMuffin or some other third party candidate running while Hatch runs again, but there is almost zero chance that happens. Hatch may simply step down and hand off his seat to Mitt Romney, who would handily hold it for the GOP. Regardless, any scenario outside of the perfect storm will keep this seat red. 98% R.

Vermont - Bernie Sanders is a progressive firebrand with exceeding popularity. Republicans are highly favored in the gubernatorial contest, but they'll find no such luck in the Senate race. 99% I.

Virginia - Tim Kaine is well-liked and cucked George Allen pretty badly in 2012. Although unsuccessful in his vice-presidential endeavors, he's unlikely to fall to any Republican challenger, even if the GOP recruits a strong candidate. If the Republicans recognize this race for what it is, they will likely just throw failed gubernatorial candidate Corey "The South Will Rise Again" Stewart to the wolves. 85% D.

Washington - Cantwell is a Democatic incumbent in a blue state. Nothing to see here. 99% D.

West Virginia - Joe Manchin is a popular Democratic incumbent in a state that, like Montana, has a tendency to elect downballot Democrats. Even as West Virginia gave Donald Trump his strongest state performance of the 2016 election, it still elected a Democratic Governor, even if that Governor switched to a Republican a few months into office...then endorsed Manchin anyway... Fortunately for the GOP, they have more of a bench here than they did in elections past, most notably in Rep. Evan Jenkins and Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, who are both running in 2018. Justice Democrats are attempting to primary Joe Manchin with a fiercely anti-coal challenger, but really, Joe Manchin's only concern is the general election. Manchin would be much happier to go up against Morrisey, but he can certainly beat Jenkins if he is the nominee. 65% D.

Wyoming - Nothing to see here. 99% R.

Wisconsin - The dairy state is notable for having quite the tendency to elect extreme conservatives and extreme progressives, since Bob LaFollette and Joe McCarthy in the 20th century to Tammy Baldwin and Ron Johnson today. Wisconsin has made a significant shift to the right since 2010, electing Scott Walker three times, Ron Johnson twice, and Donald Trump in 2016. Yet hope is not lost for Democrats here. Trump won with less votes than Romney in 2012, and it was more likely the flawed Hillary Clinton that threw the state to the GOP and dragged down downballot Democrats. Tammy Baldwin is a progressive incumbent, and can likely perform far better in rural areas than Hillary Clinton did, seeing as numerous counties that went for Republicans in 2016 went for Democrats four years earlier. Progressive Senate candidate Russ Feingold outperformed Hillary Clinton in rural areas, and there were even 6 counties that went for both Trump and Feingold in 2016. Turnout in strongholds like Milwaukee and Madison is vital, but Democrats need to improve in rural counties if they want to win in 2018. I'm biased, but this state will be definitely be high on my watch list in 2018. 60% D.

Whew, this was a long post. I probably gushed about Wisconsin way more than I should have. Oh well.

[Xing]

Making a few changes.

AZ: Lean R -> Toss-Up
Flake is definitely more vulnerable than I thought, and Ward winning would be a trainwreck for Republicans. Tilt R if Flake survives the primary, Tilt D if Ward wins.

MO: Toss-Up -> Lean R
McCaskill is still the underdog, but this is definitely closer to Tilt R than Likely R. People on this forum are letting their personal feelings about McCaskill influence their predictions here, and there's a good chance that this won't serve them well. I could definitely see McCaskill surviving in a good year for Democrats.

NV: Toss-Up -> Lean D
I've been very generous to Heller, but he's running in an increasingly blue (Atlas red) state, and he's facing a more serious than expected primary challenge, so he's going to have a hard time getting as lucky this time as he did in 2012.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

No tossups:

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

No Tossups

[SamTilden2020]

Safe D: CA CO DE HI MD MA MN NM NY RI VT VA WA
Likely D: FL ME MI NJ PA WI WV
Lean D: AZ MO MT ND OH
Lean R: IN NV
Likely R: ...
Safe R: MS NE TN TX UT WY

(Note: No tossup, Lean territory is de facto tossup, but favor is indicated by the lean it goes to)

[Lachi]

IN as lean R, but MO as lean D?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Safe D: CA CO DE HI MD MA MN NM NY RI VT VA WA
Likely D: FL ME MI NJ PA WI WV
Lean D: AZ MO MT ND OH
Lean R: IN NV
Likely R: ...
Safe R: MS NE TN TX UT WY

(Note: No tossup, Lean territory is de facto tossup, but favor is indicated by the lean it goes to)

I'd swap NV and MO.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With Feinstein announcing that she will run for re-election, California moves from Likely D to Safe D.

[Blackacre]

With Feinstein announcing that she will run for re-election, California moves from Safe D to Safe D.

FTFY

[TheSaint250]

With Feinstein announcing that she will run for re-election, California moves from Safe D to Safe T I T A N I U M  D.

FTFY

Had to do it

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

As my ratings become official with the release of my usual Google Doc, I am moving Minnesota to Safe D due to the weak republican field:

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA
Lean D (5): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1)
Toss-Up (3): ND, WV, AZ
Lean R (2): IN (even), OH (R+1)
Likely R (3): UT, AL, MO (R+2)
Safe R (5): MS, TN, NE, TX, WY