Exit polls indicate Hillary likely won

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Greg_Palast/status/798599017361833987

FL

Clinton 47.7%
Trump 46.4%

PA

Clinton 50.5%
Trump 46.1%

NC

Clinton 48.6%
Trump 46.5%

WI

Clinton 48.2%
Trump 44.3%

[Dr. Arch]

I don't trust polls anymore.

[bagelman]

Silent Trump effect

or maybe there just weren't enough pollsters out in the land of the forgotten.

[RI]

Silent Trump effect

Just like the shy Tory effect, a shy Trump effect would certainly affect exit polls too.

[Xing]

Exit polls belong on the long list of things that have been discredited this year.

[Ljube]

Silent Trump effect

Just like the shy Tory effect, a shy Trump effect would certainly affect exit polls too.

Or poor methodology.

Basically, poor stratification.

[MT Treasurer]

I was in panic mode when the exit polls showed Jason Kander winning the Senate race in MO by 9 points.

[RI]

Silent Trump effect

Just like the shy Tory effect, a shy Trump effect would certainly affect exit polls too.

Or poor methodology.

Basically, poor stratification.

Not mutually exclusive.

[Panda Express]

She did - until Putin hacked the machines.

[Pericles]

Exit polls showed John Kerry winning in a landslide. Don't trust exit polls.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Those must be the early wave, because the exit poll you see if you just Google it appears to show a tie to Clinton +1.

[PresidentTRUMP]

LOL "polls" Just like the ABC "poll" showing hillary up +15 two weeks before the election LOL

[Likely Voter]

Not sure where those exit numbers are coming from. If you go to CNN for the latest exits and extrapolate from the Male/Female vote you get the following.

FL   
Clinton   46.7%
Trump   48.8%
   
PA   
Clinton   48.0%
Trump   49.1%
   
NC   
Clinton   45.6%
Trump   50.1%
   
WI   
Clinton   46.6%
Trump   48.4%

In all cases the exit winner is the winner and if anything, the final exits overstate Trump's margin by almost 0.7-0.9% in FL, NC and WI.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Not sure where those exit numbers are coming from. If you go to CNN for the latest exits and extrapolate from the Male/Female vote you get the following.

FL   
Clinton   46.7%
Trump   48.8%
   
PA   
Clinton   48.0%
Trump   49.1%
   
NC   
Clinton   45.6%
Trump   50.1%
   
WI   
Clinton   46.6%
Trump   48.4%

In all cases the exit winner is the winner and if anything, the final exits overstate Trump's margin by almost 0.7-0.9% in FL, NC and WI.

The exit polls are adjusted over the course of the ight to better reflect the real results. The OP is likely citing the early exit polls that are solely based on surveying at polling places.

[jaichind]

Those must be the early wave, because the exit poll you see if you just Google it appears to show a tie to Clinton +1.

Not sure it is just a wave issue.  I think the exit polls are adjusted later to reflect the real count.  I remember back in 2004 when the exit polls clearly showing Kerry ahead in pretty much all battleground states were changed later when the vote counts came in hours after any other"waves" of exit became available.   

[Mr. Morden]

Those must be the early wave, because the exit poll you see if you just Google it appears to show a tie to Clinton +1.

Not sure it is just a wave issue.  I think the exit polls are adjusted later to reflect the real count.  I remember back in 2004 when the exit polls clearly showing Kerry ahead in pretty much all battleground states were changed later when the vote counts came in hours after any other"waves" of exit became available.   

The earliest 2004 numbers were leaks of the unweighted numbers from the early afternoon.  The exit polling process was reformed after that fiasco, so that we never actually see those early unweighted numbers anymore.

[RINO Tom]

She did - until Putin hacked the machines.

Is blue THAT cool of a color to you??  And do you love squares THAT much?!

You're making our cool avatar feature useless.

[Alcon]

I love how one guy (I forget his name) became a self-styled author and accredit "exit poll expert" because he downloaded the 2004 exit poll results and compared them to the actual results.  Serious biographies of him from sympathizers pretty much literally characterize him as "the man who changed the world by downloading the 2004 exit polls."  It's hilarious.  These people are nuts.

[Heisenberg]

She did - until Putin hacked the machines.

Is blue THAT cool of a color to you??  And do you love squares THAT much?!

You're making our cool avatar feature useless.

Vox Populi is just a troll. Maybe he should be banned.

[Person Man]

Didn't Kerry win by Obama 2012-style margins through the exit polls? I think he was looking like a map that was Obama12 + MO - VA. Was even up in Colorado by like 1. He was up nation-wide by like 3 and even up like 4 in Ohio and Florida. It was basically Dick Morris in reverse.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

She did - until Putin hacked the machines.

Is blue THAT cool of a color to you??  And do you love squares THAT much?!

You're making our cool avatar feature useless.

Vox Populi is just a troll. Maybe he should be banned.

The avatar is from him losing a 2014 bet that both Sen. Uterus and Hickenlooper would win. He is in fact a Democrat.

Though, he said he'd switch the avatar back if Bennett won, and Bennett did win, so not entirely sure why he still has it.

[Mr. Morden]

Didn't Kerry win by Obama 2012-style margins through the exit polls? I think he was looking like a map that was Obama12 + MO - VA. Was even up in Colorado by like 1. He was up nation-wide by like 3 and even up like 4 in Ohio and Florida. It was basically Dick Morris in reverse.

Again, pretty sure that was just the unweighted early numbers that leaked in the middle of the afternoon.  That stuff never leaks anymore because of the reforms to the exit polling process.

[jaichind]

Didn't Kerry win by Obama 2012-style margins through the exit polls? I think he was looking like a map that was Obama12 + MO - VA. Was even up in Colorado by like 1. He was up nation-wide by like 3 and even up like 4 in Ohio and Florida. It was basically Dick Morris in reverse.

Again, pretty sure that was just the unweighted early numbers that leaked in the middle of the afternoon.  That stuff never leaks anymore because of the reforms to the exit polling process.

Could be.  But I was pretty such back in 2004 when I reviewed the exit polls for FL and OH in the CNN  site early in the night the headline number computation clearly showed a Kerry victory in both.  Later in the night CNN "changed" the exit polls to reflect the vote count.

[ApatheticAustrian]

that exit polls nonsense ran in both directions, btw.

as conservative numbers guy patrick ruffini pointed out, if you extrapolate those (demographic) values, trump would have won the PV by 2 points.


https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/800874626494517248

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/800874834074996737

he suggests that HRC - after all - made big inroads with educated white voters and won a higher share of hispanics/asian than thought.

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/800875539649044480

and nate cohn agrees, that dems got the electorate they wanted...

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/800907381907427328

number of white rural voters just cancelled it out, otherwise turnout was fine.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Didn't Kerry win by Obama 2012-style margins through the exit polls? I think he was looking like a map that was Obama12 + MO - VA. Was even up in Colorado by like 1. He was up nation-wide by like 3 and even up like 4 in Ohio and Florida. It was basically Dick Morris in reverse.

kerry also had the election stolen from him, so i'm not sure what your point is.