Red Carpet Research Projections
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Leinad
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,049
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.03, S: -7.91

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« on: November 18, 2016, 01:39:01 AM »
« edited: November 18, 2016, 01:41:02 AM by Leinad »

Red Carpet Research, Atlasia's newest polling/research firm based off of an OC classic, has decided to wade into the territory of predictions. Mainly because we feel that Atlasia needs an answer to the Cook Political Report. Tongue

Most recent projections (16-11-18)
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Leinad
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,049
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.03, S: -7.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2016, 01:39:45 AM »

November Southern Governor

Lean Federalist

In our recent poll on this election, dfwlibertylover is leading NeverAgain by over 20 points. Even taking into account the absurdly small sample size, there's no denying that's a comfortable lead by dfw. However, with Labor recently surpassing the Federalists in registration in the South, we're not ready to call this anything more than Lean Fed.

November Southern Chamber of Delegates

Safe Right-of-Center majority

With 4 of the 5 declared candidates being Federalists or ACPers, it seems clear to us that Right-of-Center candidates will take at least 3 seats in the Chamber.

Likely Federalist Majority

While it is possible that a write-in candidate wins a seat, we think that the Federalist Party will have 3 seats in the Chamber.

December Fremontian Senator

Likely United Alternative

Incumbent Cris won against Potus with over 70% of the vote--19-7--in August, so it seems unlikely he would be vanquished by a Federalist challenger should he run for another term. Labor and the "Harambe Freedom Party" both have strong contingencies in Fremont, but with Adam Griffin occupying the other Senate seat we have a hard time imagining a candidate toppling Cris.

December Southern Senator

Tossup

Incumbent JCL won the Special Election narrowly--in a runoff--and Labor has gained in registration since then. With no candidates declared for the race, there's far too much uncertainty for us to call either party the favorite.

December Northern Senator

Safe Labor-Aligned Independent

Incumbent Scott left Labor during his term. but it doesn't seem like they're holding a grudge. Since Scott has been active I doubt he'll lose much of the large left-of-center majority in the North. There's still time for a left-wing challenger to emerge, or the right to gain momentum, but at the moment we think Scott will be re-elected if he runs for another term.
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