FL-SEN 2018: Scott likely to run against Nelson

[MT Treasurer]

Scott says 'it's an option', but Nelson expects him to be his opponent

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

He's pretty open about running. I'm not entirely sure if he will or not, but if he does enter the race, he'll probably clear the field. I'd rather have DeSantis run personally.

Agriculture Commissioner Putnam is running for Governor in 2018, while CLC is looking at running for CFO. Jeff Atwater, the current CFO, could run for Governor or Senate, but I think his best bet is to try and wiggle his way onto the gubernatorial ticket. DeSantis might possibly run for Attorney General, but frankly, I think that'd be a mistake. Case in point, the rise, plateau, and slow fall of Bill McCollum.

[KingSweden]

He's pretty open about running. I'm not entirely sure if he will or not, but if he does enter the race, he'll probably clear the field. I'd rather have DeSantis run personally.

Agriculture Commissioner Putnam is running for Governor in 2018, while CLC is looking at running for CFO. Jeff Atwater, the current CFO, could run for Governor or Senate, but I think his best bet is to try and wiggle his way onto the gubernatorial ticket. DeSantis might possibly run for Attorney General, but frankly, I think that'd be a mistake. Case in point, the rise, plateau, and slow fall of Bill McCollum.

My understanding is Atwater out of all races

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Not from Florida, of course, but if you're Nelson, is there anyone you'd rather face than Rick Scott?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

He's pretty open about running. I'm not entirely sure if he will or not, but if he does enter the race, he'll probably clear the field. I'd rather have DeSantis run personally.

Agriculture Commissioner Putnam is running for Governor in 2018, while CLC is looking at running for CFO. Jeff Atwater, the current CFO, could run for Governor or Senate, but I think his best bet is to try and wiggle his way onto the gubernatorial ticket. DeSantis might possibly run for Attorney General, but frankly, I think that'd be a mistake. Case in point, the rise, plateau, and slow fall of Bill McCollum.

My understanding is Atwater out of all races

Is he? I haven't heard anything that you haven't, but I think ending his career on the high note of Lt. Governor before collecting a pension and joining a lucrative lobbying firm based somewhere off Jefferson or Adams Street here in town would make sense for him. I'd make sense.

I frankly don't see any room for Bondi at this point. What else is there for her to do? I guess she can run for Congress or the legislature, but she won't beat Scott or Putnam in the Senate/Gubernatorial primaries.

[Maxwell]

Not from Florida, of course, but if you're Nelson, is there anyone you'd rather face than Rick Scott?

Probably Huckabee.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Not from Florida, of course, but if you're Nelson, is there anyone you'd rather face than Rick Scott?

Plenty of people I can think of, but ultimately none will run. Scott is a good "wave insurance" candidate. Carlos Beruff would go down in flames if he ran against Nelson, but Beruff is also a friend of Rick Scott and would never run against him.

Not from Florida, of course, but if you're Nelson, is there anyone you'd rather face than Rick Scott?

Probably Huckabee.

With Huckabee going to Israel, I think we've heard the last of his political ambitions. Certainly in Florida, at least.

[Fusionmunster]

Likely D then.

[MT Treasurer]

Not from Florida, of course, but if you're Nelson, is there anyone you'd rather face than Rick Scott?

Not sure which Republican would be better than Scott. Scott has the name recognition, the money, etc. It all depends on his and Trump's approval ratings, but if both are relatively popular, this will be a competitive race.

[Kingpoleon]

Ileana Ros-Lehtinehen, Carlos Curbelo, or even David Jolly are the best potential Republicans for this seat. CLC is okay.

[Heisenberg]

Ileana Ros-Lehtinehen, Carlos Curbelo, or even David Jolly are the best potential Republicans for this seat. CLC is okay.

Tom Rooney and Ron DeSantis are other strong potential candidates. Both are strong fundraisers, more charismatic, and less polarizing. IRL is not leaving the House, she's more powerful as a Congresswoman than she'll ever be as a Senator this late into her career. But it looks like Scott will get the primary all to himself, though I'm fine with that.

[Xing]

Scott isn't going to get lucky again if he's going up against Nelson, especially in an environment that will probably be at least somewhat bad for Republicans. They should try and find someone else.

[KingSweden]

He's pretty open about running. I'm not entirely sure if he will or not, but if he does enter the race, he'll probably clear the field. I'd rather have DeSantis run personally.

Agriculture Commissioner Putnam is running for Governor in 2018, while CLC is looking at running for CFO. Jeff Atwater, the current CFO, could run for Governor or Senate, but I think his best bet is to try and wiggle his way onto the gubernatorial ticket. DeSantis might possibly run for Attorney General, but frankly, I think that'd be a mistake. Case in point, the rise, plateau, and slow fall of Bill McCollum.

My understanding is Atwater out of all races

Is he? I haven't heard anything that you haven't, but I think ending his career on the high note of Lt. Governor before collecting a pension and joining a lucrative lobbying firm based somewhere off Jefferson or Adams Street here in town would make sense for him. I'd make sense.

I frankly don't see any room for Bondi at this point. What else is there for her to do? I guess she can run for Congress or the legislature, but she won't beat Scott or Putnam in the Senate/Gubernatorial primaries.

That's per RRH. I consider you more connected

[MT Treasurer]

Scott's PAC fund points to possible Senate run

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[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Scott is an incredibly skilled politician. He was more than 20 points behind Crist in 2013, but still managed to win narrowly when the actual election happened. The race would start at Lean D due to Nelson's incumbency, but I would not be surprised by a Scott victory at all.

For those who care, I would endorse Nelson.

[Indy Texas]

Scott is an incredibly skilled politician. He was more than 20 points behind Crist in 2013, but still managed to win narrowly when the actual election happened. The race would start at Lean D due to Nelson's incumbency, but I would not be surprised by a Scott victory at all.

For those who care, I would endorse Nelson.

And Nelson is a lucky politician who has never faced a particularly good candidate before. McCollum (2000) and Mack (2012) were mediocre, and Katherine Harris (2006) was just awful.

[peterthlee]

In this scenario, Nelson is likely to win high single to double digits.

[MT Treasurer]

In this scenario, Nelson is likely to win high single to double digits.

That could happen, but I doubt Scott will lose in a huge landslide. It should be a relatively competitive race and I have a gut feeling that whoever wins it will do so with a margin of 1% or less. Don't underestimate how many John Morgan/Rick Scott voters there could be.

[Heisenberg]

In this scenario, Nelson is likely to win high single to double digits.

That could happen, but I doubt Scott will lose in a huge landslide. It should be a relatively competitive race and I have a gut feeling that whoever wins it will do so with a margin of 1% or less. Don't underestimate how many John Morgan/Rick Scott voters there could be.

Agree 100%.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

In this scenario, Nelson is likely to win high single to double digits.

That could happen, but I doubt Scott will lose in a huge landslide. It should be a relatively competitive race and I have a gut feeling that whoever wins it will do so with a margin of 1% or less. Don't underestimate how many John Morgan/Rick Scott voters there could be.

Agree 100%.

I'd say a Nelson-Scott race would result in something like 54-46 for Nelson.

[Xing]

Scott probably wouldn't lose by double digits, since Florida races are usually at least somewhat close. Let's not forget that he won by a tiny margin in two Republican wave years, so he doesn't have much room for error.

[jamestroll]

Scott probably wouldn't lose by double digits, since Florida races are usually at least somewhat close. Let's not forget that he won by a tiny margin in two Republican wave years, so he doesn't have much room for error.

He also has experience running competitive races, Nelson really does not.

On the other hand, I doubt 2018 will be as pro-gop was 2010 or 2014 were.

Probably Nelson by 4 to 7 at this early stage.

[MT Treasurer]

While Nelson could win in a landslide in a D wave year, I don't think predicting that the race will be close is a bold prediction at this point. We'll see, who knows what 2018 will be like. However, I dare say that even in 2014, Democrats held states like Michigan, Virginia and New Hampshire, so it's not as if the GOP will lose every Senate race in 2018 in a landslide just because Trump is president.

Many posters here also predicted that Rubio was a paper tiger who would lose to Murphy.

Scott probably wouldn't lose by double digits, since Florida races are usually at least somewhat close. Let's not forget that he won by a tiny margin in two Republican wave years, so he doesn't have much room for error.

I agree with this, but I don't see who would be a better Republican candidate? Maybe Carlos Curbelo, but I really doubt it. Businessmen like Johnson, Scott and Justice seem to be doing really well across the country. There could be a lot of Morgan/Scott voters (I think Ds are favored in the gubernatorial race if Morgan wins the nomination, ftr).

[jamestroll]

I am not mocking you and I agree all election years have a different dynamic.

[SATW]

I think Nelson has the early edge against all GOP potentials. Even in a GOP wave, I don't see how Nelson goes down.

I think Nelson would beat Scott around the 54-46 (like Chairman said) or 55-45 range.