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| | |-+  LA 2016 runoff: Trafalgar (R) - Kennedy + 23
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Author Topic: LA 2016 runoff: Trafalgar (R) - Kennedy + 23  (Read 1075 times)
President dfwlibertylover
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« on: November 18, 2016, 02:02:00 pm »
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https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitN1gydzlLMjBLQ0E/view

Kennedy - 58
Campbell - 35
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AndrewCA🌹
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« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2016, 02:09:38 pm »
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Looks about right. Fayard was the Democrat who could've made the race at least somewhat competitive.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2016, 02:18:40 pm »
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Looks about right. Fayard was the Democrat who could've made the race at least somewhat competitive.

I mean maybe, but only because oil companies might have supported her, because Campbell was the only anti-oil interest candidate.

I mean really there was only a chance of a competitive run-off with (among the realistic Republicans) Fleming, who is the most knee jerk conservative and easiest to tie to BOBBY JINDAL, a pariah of the state at this point.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2016, 03:41:20 pm by Maxwell »Logged

Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2016, 02:34:12 pm »
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Nice to see one of the nation's gold standard pollsters polling this race.
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Statement on MT Result: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254607.msg5668993#msg5668993

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ALL GA-6 RESIDENTS ARE DUTY AND HONOR BOUND TO VOTE FOR JON OSSOFF IN THE JUNE 20 RUNOFF!

---
'17 Gov. Ratings: https://tinyurl.com/h35xfkr (4/12: VA - Toss-Up to Lean D)
'18 House Rating: Lean R
Miles
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« Reply #4 on: November 18, 2016, 04:38:13 pm »
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Looks about right. Fayard was the Democrat who could've made the race at least somewhat competitive.

Er, no.
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Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2016, 06:18:02 pm »
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Looks about right. Fayard was the Democrat who could've made the race at least somewhat competitive.

Er, no.

Fayard is pro-oil, Campbell is not.
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Statement on MT Result: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254607.msg5668993#msg5668993

----

ALL GA-6 RESIDENTS ARE DUTY AND HONOR BOUND TO VOTE FOR JON OSSOFF IN THE JUNE 20 RUNOFF!

---
'17 Gov. Ratings: https://tinyurl.com/h35xfkr (4/12: VA - Toss-Up to Lean D)
'18 House Rating: Lean R
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« Reply #6 on: November 18, 2016, 06:22:12 pm »
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I'd be shocked if Kennedy won by such a wide margin. Keep in mind that polls heavily underestimated Landrieu in 2014. Blacks tend to turn out in runoff elections in LA, and Campbell should get a decent percentage of White Trump voters as well. 55/45 or 56/44 in Kennedy's favor would be my guess as to the final result, but definitely not higher than that.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #7 on: November 18, 2016, 06:35:59 pm »
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Looks about right. Fayard was the Democrat who could've made the race at least somewhat competitive.
I agree, mostly.
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« Reply #8 on: November 18, 2016, 06:40:13 pm »
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But... but I thought Trafalgar was trash... Cry
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Green Line
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« Reply #9 on: November 18, 2016, 06:50:10 pm »
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THE GOLD STANDARD. Let it be so.
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« Reply #10 on: November 19, 2016, 01:22:44 pm »
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Had Clinton won and there was a Special Senate election in a deep blue state like Massachusetts, enough idiot Democratic voters probably would have helped elect a Republican because Hillary needed a "check".

Democrats need stop crossing over to elect Republican governor's in state like Vermont, Massachusetts, and New Jersey.  Republicans clearly won't return the favor in Texas, Idaho, Utah, or any southern state.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #11 on: November 19, 2016, 01:35:07 pm »
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Had Clinton won and there was a Special Senate election in a deep blue state like Massachusetts, enough idiot Democratic voters probably would have helped elect a Republican because Hillary needed a "check".

Democrats need stop crossing over to elect Republican governor's in state like Vermont, Massachusetts, and New Jersey.  Republicans clearly won't return the favor in Texas, Idaho, Utah, or any southern state.

It's for these Democrats to decide, and so far they decide differently. Not sure they need your advice so much...
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Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48. Like to collect bans on partisan sites (4-5 on DKE (+ SSP) and on RRH).
yeah_93
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« Reply #12 on: November 19, 2016, 04:37:14 pm »
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Nice to see one of the nation's gold standard pollsters polling this race.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #13 on: November 19, 2016, 09:48:26 pm »
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Whatever I'm going to say is probably going to be wrong, judging by the junkposts I wasted my time on before November 8. That said... likely R.
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xīngkěruž
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« Reply #14 on: November 19, 2016, 11:08:34 pm »
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This pollster is the gold standard? I didn't realize that Trump won Nevada by 5...

It probably won't be this lopsided, but I'll be stunned if it's at all close. Kennedy probably wins 57-43 or 58-42, something like that.
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People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #15 on: November 21, 2016, 12:46:44 am »
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Had Clinton won and there was a Special Senate election in a deep blue state like Massachusetts, enough idiot Democratic voters probably would have helped elect a Republican because Hillary needed a "check".

Democrats need stop crossing over to elect Republican governor's in state like Vermont, Massachusetts, and New Jersey.  Republicans clearly won't return the favor in Texas, Idaho, Utah, or any southern state.

It's for these Democrats to decide, and so far they decide differently. Not sure they need your advice so much...

It also ignores the fact that many of those "Democrats" in Vermont and Massachusetts are registered Independents that Republicans nationwide are out of step with but locally are more in tune with.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #16 on: November 21, 2016, 08:22:42 am »
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Had Clinton won and there was a Special Senate election in a deep blue state like Massachusetts, enough idiot Democratic voters probably would have helped elect a Republican because Hillary needed a "check".

Democrats need stop crossing over to elect Republican governor's in state like Vermont, Massachusetts, and New Jersey.  Republicans clearly won't return the favor in Texas, Idaho, Utah, or any southern state.

It's for these Democrats to decide, and so far they decide differently. Not sure they need your advice so much...

It also ignores the fact that many of those "Democrats" in Vermont and Massachusetts are registered Independents that Republicans nationwide are out of step with but locally are more in tune with.

That's too. But there are enough "real" registered Democrats in New England states, who are moderate enough to support Scott, Baker and some - even Sununu. After all - New England is known not only for it's social liberalism, but for some reasonable fiscal conservatism too...
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Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48. Like to collect bans on partisan sites (4-5 on DKE (+ SSP) and on RRH).
Figueira
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« Reply #17 on: November 22, 2016, 04:45:35 pm »
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Had Clinton won and there was a Special Senate election in a deep blue state like Massachusetts, enough idiot Democratic voters probably would have helped elect a Republican because Hillary needed a "check".

Democrats need stop crossing over to elect Republican governor's in state like Vermont, Massachusetts, and New Jersey.  Republicans clearly won't return the favor in Texas, Idaho, Utah, or any southern state.

It's for these Democrats to decide, and so far they decide differently. Not sure they need your advice so much...

It also ignores the fact that many of those "Democrats" in Vermont and Massachusetts are registered Independents that Republicans nationwide are out of step with but locally are more in tune with.

Lol@ the idea that "registered independent" means anything.

Also lol@Phips confusing gubernatorial and Senate elections

And lol@ Smoltchanov implying that trying to convince people to join your political side is somehow bad
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Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #18 on: December 11, 2016, 01:25:21 am »
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LOUISIANA GOLD STANDARD RIGHT HERE FOLKS!
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Statement on MT Result: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254607.msg5668993#msg5668993

----

ALL GA-6 RESIDENTS ARE DUTY AND HONOR BOUND TO VOTE FOR JON OSSOFF IN THE JUNE 20 RUNOFF!

---
'17 Gov. Ratings: https://tinyurl.com/h35xfkr (4/12: VA - Toss-Up to Lean D)
'18 House Rating: Lean R
Silent Cal
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« Reply #19 on: December 11, 2016, 10:13:54 pm »
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LOUISIANA America's GOLD STANDARD RIGHT HERE FOLKS!
Also, side note: Fayard could've won if the Democrat Senatorial committee jumped on board with her. Kennedy was a weak candidate; all he had was name recognition.
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