Trump 2020, like Carter 2.0 or Nixon '72?

[5280]

Does anybody think Trump in 2020 will run an election like Carter 2.0 or end up being a Nixon of 1972?

[Person Man]

If the recession comes and goes during His term, it is probably Nixon '72. If we are still leading up to it or are stuck in it, Carter 80' or Bush 92'.

 If we have just a minor recession, we will probably have the same map over again.

This is really a bell curve, people!

[Santander]

Trump proves you all wrong, and here you are underestimating him again!

[Person Man]

Trump proves you all wrong, and here you are underestimating him again!

His luck will run out. It is just when is all.

[thumb21]

Trump proves you all wrong, and here you are underestimating him again!

His luck will run out. It is just when is all.

People have been saying this about Trump from the start. Underestimating Trump has been a terrible mistake from the start. They said his luck was over multiple times throughout the campaign, and now look, he's president elect.

[Person Man]

Trump proves you all wrong, and here you are underestimating him again!

His luck will run out. It is just when is all.

People have been saying this about Trump from the start. Underestimating Trump has been a terrible mistake from the start. They said his luck was over multiple times throughout the campaign, and now look, he's president elect.

People said that about the last two presidents

[Fusionmunster]

At the moment, Trump's "honeymoon" post-election approval ratings are still deep underwater. If the Dems nominate a decent candidate, Trumps going to have to be a mighty successful president to even think about coming close to Nixon 72.

[DrScholl]

He's got a 55% disapproval rate going into office, so he really has zero room for error. Getting elected as an outsider is one thing, but one can't get re-elected as an outsider. If he screws up, he losers and from the look of the transition, it doesn't seem like he will do well.

[Person Man]

If he is truly a demagogue, he will be reelected and his party will be. If not, they won't.

[Ronnie]

Um... NOTA? The country is too polarized for landslides to happen, unless Trump starts a nuclear war or the Democrats nominate Kanye West.

If there's a nuclear war, I'm not sure we'll be around to vote...

[Person Man]

Um... NOTA? The country is too polarized for landslides to happen, unless Trump starts a nuclear war or the Democrats nominate Kanye West.

If there's a nuclear war, I'm not sure we'll be around to vote...

It would be divided between those that wished they had and those who had died. Maybe some people will be OK. Wonder how this forum would react.

[Person Man]

Hmm, yeah, lol. Anyway, predicting the outcome of the 2020 election is basically impossible right now. I am really worried that Trump's presidency will basically be a replay of the Bush predicency and that he will give in to the neocons and war hawks in his party. Trump needs to realize just how incredibly lucky he got this year - had it not been for Hillary Clinton or Scalia's death, I don't think he would be president right now. This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportuinty for the GOP and I hope they don't blow this. Trump needs to work together with Democrats whenever possible and necessary (and he needs to make them pay in two years if they refuse to do so), he should appoint a young, pro-life conservative to the Supreme Court, and his main focus should lie on moderating his tone and focusing on trying to fulfill at least some of the campaign promises that got him elected. Republicans over-interpreting their "mandate" will likely not end well for them - and Trump sure as hell doesn't have the charisma that saved Obama in 2012.

Though if it was Ginsburg that croaked...this election would have been over in August.

That said, Bush campaigned on withdrawing from the world stage, more religious Government, cutting taxes, and improving entitlements and trade for workers.

The class of 2018 will help Trump keep the senate, but the business cycle could screw Him everywhere else. Though He could be saved like W if the economy is really resilient or we get dragged into a war. That basically gave W a blank check for four years. Eventually, he succumbed as people decided that he was prolonging the war for political reasons. The housing crash destroyed his legacy.

I think the only difference between Obama's and Bush's power is that 9/11 got Bush through 2002. Obama seems like a regression to the norm.

[Seneca]

Like Nixon '72, given that the 2020 elections will likely be neither free nor fair.

[Person Man]

Hmm, yeah, lol. Anyway, predicting the outcome of the 2020 election is basically impossible right now. I am really worried that Trump's presidency will basically be a replay of the Bush predicency and that he will give in to the neocons and war hawks in his party. Trump needs to realize just how incredibly lucky he got this year - had it not been for Hillary Clinton or Scalia's death, I don't think he would be president right now. This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportuinty for the GOP and I hope they don't blow this. Trump needs to work together with Democrats whenever possible and necessary (and he needs to make them pay in two years if they refuse to do so), he should appoint a young, pro-life conservative to the Supreme Court, and his main focus should lie on moderating his tone and focusing on trying to fulfill at least some of the campaign promises that got him elected. Republicans over-interpreting their "mandate" will likely not end well for them - and Trump sure as hell doesn't have the charisma that saved Obama in 2012.

Though if it was Ginsburg that croaked...this election would have been over in August.

That said, Bush campaigned on withdrawing from the world stage, more religious Government, cutting taxes, and improving entitlements and trade for workers.

The class of 2018 will help Trump keep the senate, but the business cycle could screw Him everywhere else. Though He could be saved like W if the economy is really resilient or we get dragged into a war. That basically gave W a blank check for four years. Eventually, he succumbed as people decided that he was prolonging the war for political reasons. The housing crash destroyed his legacy.

I think the only difference between Obama's and Bush's power is that 9/11 got Bush through 2002. Obama seems like a regression to the norm.

Weirdly, I think Democrats are going to have a natural advantage in the House from 2020 onward and a disadvantage everywhere else.  I do expect the House to flip in 2018, on the strength of the realigning Southern and Western seats.  The gerrymander of the North and Midwest after 2010 means that the Trump realignment is almost exclusively endangering Republican seats because anything marginal for Dems was already lost in those states.

They were weak in 2014 and 2016. If Trump loses, the senate flips. He loses CO, NC and maybe ME, GA. Maybe IA, MT, and TX.

If he manages to win, he is in trouble in PA, NC, AZ, GA, FL and  MO. The six year itch will suck.

[Person Man]

Hmm, yeah, lol. Anyway, predicting the outcome of the 2020 election is basically impossible right now. I am really worried that Trump's presidency will basically be a replay of the Bush predicency and that he will give in to the neocons and war hawks in his party. Trump needs to realize just how incredibly lucky he got this year - had it not been for Hillary Clinton or Scalia's death, I don't think he would be president right now. This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportuinty for the GOP and I hope they don't blow this. Trump needs to work together with Democrats whenever possible and necessary (and he needs to make them pay in two years if they refuse to do so), he should appoint a young, pro-life conservative to the Supreme Court, and his main focus should lie on moderating his tone and focusing on trying to fulfill at least some of the campaign promises that got him elected. Republicans over-interpreting their "mandate" will likely not end well for them - and Trump sure as hell doesn't have the charisma that saved Obama in 2012.

Though if it was Ginsburg that croaked...this election would have been over in August.

That said, Bush campaigned on withdrawing from the world stage, more religious Government, cutting taxes, and improving entitlements and trade for workers.

The class of 2018 will help Trump keep the senate, but the business cycle could screw Him everywhere else. Though He could be saved like W if the economy is really resilient or we get dragged into a war. That basically gave W a blank check for four years. Eventually, he succumbed as people decided that he was prolonging the war for political reasons. The housing crash destroyed his legacy.

I think the only difference between Obama's and Bush's power is that 9/11 got Bush through 2002. Obama seems like a regression to the norm.

Weirdly, I think Democrats are going to have a natural advantage in the House from 2020 onward and a disadvantage everywhere else.  I do expect the House to flip in 2018, on the strength of the realigning Southern and Western seats.  The gerrymander of the North and Midwest after 2010 means that the Trump realignment is almost exclusively endangering Republican seats because anything marginal for Dems was already lost in those states.

They were weak in 2014 and 2016. If Trump loses, the senate flips. He loses CO, NC and maybe ME, GA. Maybe IA, MT, and TX.

If he manages to win, he is in trouble in PA, NC, AZ, GA, FL and  MO. The six year itch will suck.

The senate could happen in 2020 with a Trump loss, but they have to really contain their 2018 losses.  CO+NC+ME+GA is highly viable, but it tails off quickly after that and keeping Republicans below a net of +2 in 2018 will be tough. 

It should happen if they take back the house. They just need to win 1 of 2 competitive R seats and 7 of 10 Ds. Totally doable when Trump is unpopular and not on the ballot.

[TDAS04]

Somewhere in between most likely, hopefully closer to the former.  I doubt it will be a landslide.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its likely that the US will be involved in a military conflict between now and then and Syria and Iran is on the horizon as the next threat.

I think he will be Carter 2.0

[Person Man]

Its likely that the US will be involved in a military conflict between now and then and Syria and Iran is on the horizon as the next threat.

I think he will be Carter 2.0

It depends. If it seems we aren't able to even accomplish our initial objectives, the Democrats can talk about suing for peace or mobilizing to win the war if he hasn't.  If we were able to get in and out, it won't have much of an effect if there is something else coming up with it. If we kicked their ass, but are still fighting partisans and their road mines, Trump will be seen as the only policy game in town and win the way Obama and W did.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Due to polarization we simply won't see a Nixon-style landslide for any candidate anytime soon.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Cater 2.0, I think people are underscoring how much he can get backlashed in 2018 if he is anymore unpopular as he is now the facts the dems are defending  more seats won't matter and they will take back congress. On top of that their could be a good chance his energy policy could end up hurting the economy as green jobs are coming into their own with men like Elon Musk

[Maxwell]

I think more Andrew Jackson's re-election.

[ElectionsGuy]

Based on the expectations of most people throughout running, the primary, and the general, I'm guessing Trump will vastly over perform people's expectations and win in a landslide.

Just guessing.

[Mr. Smith]

If he isn't Carter 2.0, then he's Dubya 2.0.

There were 3 ways this election could've gone: 1976, 2000, and 1988.

After Clinton imploded in the last week, 1988 was out of the question.

But the cycle has had lots of elements of both 1976 and 2000, with 1976 having the majority of similar traits.

If the Democrats learn their lesson and risk going "full-on Corbyn" in search of an anti-Reagan for 2020, trump will likely remain Carter 2.0.

If people listen to Howard Dean and unite behind Kirsten Gillibrand [who people have accused of being Hillary 2.0], then another John Kerry is in the making.

[Saint Milei]

Dems dont have a single candidate able to beat Trump rn

[krazen1211]

Nixon 1968. You will see 1972 soon.