Trump 2020, like Carter 2.0 or Nixon '72?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Dems dont have a single candidate able to beat Trump rn

DeadPrez hits the nail on the head.

The Democrats have spent so much time propping up Hillary that they have no obvious 2nd tier of leaders to step up.  No new Obama hotshot on the horizon, either.

They have credible female candidates.  Shaheen, Klobuchar, McCaskill, Gillebrand, but none of them have been really visible on the national scene.  Bernie is old, and he's not really a Democrat.  Frankly, they could do far worse than nominating Al Gore.  None of their black or Hispanic candidates cut the kind of figure to where I'd point to them as someone who can overcome the damage.

[Lincoln Republican]

Trump wins, not by Nixon 1972 standards, but wins.

The Democrat bench is pathetically thin, and unless a miracle occurs within the Democrat Party by 2018, they're toast. 

And their demise won't be pretty.

[Mr. Smith]

Trump wins, not by Nixon 1972 standards, but wins.

The Democrat bench is pathetically thin, and unless a miracle occurs within the Democrat Party by 2018, they're toast. 

And their demise won't be pretty.

And just where was the GOP again after 2008?...I thought so.

[krazen1211]

Trump wins, not by Nixon 1972 standards, but wins.

The Democrat bench is pathetically thin, and unless a miracle occurs within the Democrat Party by 2018, they're toast. 

And their demise won't be pretty.

Trump just won despite a 2:1 money disadvantage. Just wait until he gets more resources next time.

[DrScholl]

Trump hasn't even taken office yet, but some of you want to act like he's already invincible? Laughable. His margin of victory was based on narrow pluralities in a few states and he's the most unpopular President-elect ever (55% underwater).

[NHI]

Peoples "predictions" about 2020 are mostly their wishful thinking and what they WANT to happen.

Exactly! Too early to tell.

[Person Man]

This thread definitely sounds December 2008y. Were in the Post-Reagan where Republicans will soon be replaced by Libertarians sounds as silly as we are in a post-Globalism, Post-Civil Rights world where the Democrats are now an urban minority sanctuary rump party that will be replaced at the national level by Libertarians.

My guess at the point is that we have a crash in a year, an Trump loses a substantial amount of power but the economy recovers quickly and he preserves the status quo and wins NH, MEAL, and MN but loses MI. In 2022, Democrats are finally able to retake the senate. In 2024, a Democrat wins.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Hmm, yeah, lol. Anyway, predicting the outcome of the 2020 election is basically impossible right now. I am really worried that Trump's presidency will basically be a replay of the Bush predicency and that he will give in to the neocons and war hawks in his party. Trump needs to realize just how incredibly lucky he got this year - had it not been for Hillary Clinton or Scalia's death, I don't think he would be president right now. This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportuinty for the GOP and I hope they don't blow this. Trump needs to work together with Democrats whenever possible and necessary (and he needs to make them pay in two years if they refuse to do so), he should appoint a young, pro-life conservative to the Supreme Court, and his main focus should lie on moderating his tone and focusing on trying to fulfill at least some of the campaign promises that got him elected. Republicans over-interpreting their "mandate" will likely not end well for them - and Trump sure as hell doesn't have the charisma that saved Obama in 2012.

Very true!

He needs to tell the war hawks to go to hell, and he needs to concentrate on making good on the promises he's made to the folks who put him in office.  And those folks, most certainly, did not endorse Bush 43 Neocon Redux on foreign policy.  The working class Trump supporters are more intensely flag-waving patriotic than the mean in America, but they also are aware that a disproportionate number of soldiers that die in needless foreign conflicts come from their ranks.

[Bojack Horseman]

Here's another endorsement for my strategy: http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/20/opinions/democrats-cooperate-trump-zelizer/index.html

Working with Trump, as if he was just any Republican president, would also help give him legitimacy in the public mind. Given the kind of campaign he has run, which included the themes of xenophobia, sexism, anti-Semitism and Islamophobia, this is a high risk maneuver. If Democrats are serious that they see no place for these ideas at the political table, that some things must remain out of bounds in American politics, then starting to cut deals with Trump -- with someone like Bannon by his side -- will send a dangerous message that will be impossible to erase

[White Trash]

Bush '04. If not Jackson '32.

[Person Man]

Here's another endorsement for my strategy: http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/20/opinions/democrats-cooperate-trump-zelizer/index.html

Working with Trump, as if he was just any Republican president, would also help give him legitimacy in the public mind. Given the kind of campaign he has run, which included the themes of xenophobia, sexism, anti-Semitism and Islamophobia, this is a high risk maneuver. If Democrats are serious that they see no place for these ideas at the political table, that some things must remain out of bounds in American politics, then starting to cut deals with Trump -- with someone like Bannon by his side -- will send a dangerous message that will be impossible to erase

It could delegitimize these points if it makes it seem that working with Trump would happen but for these things.

[Lachi]

I like how it's the Republicans who are saying that the Democrats have a small bench...

[pbrower2a]

Assuming that the Republicans allow the Democrats to have a chance to win the election...

Carter 1980, except that Donald Trump is about as amoral as Jimmy Carter is moral, and Carter was not defeated by large numbers of  middle-class minorities turning against him. By 2020 practically any Democrat could defeat Donald Trump in roughly a Reagan 1980 landslide should Donald Trump's bad early favorability ratings transmute into the sorts of disapproval ratings like those even of Dubya in 2008.

He's making serious mistakes that other Presidents have never made, mistakes that someone with experience in elective office, public administration, or senior military service would never make even before his inauguration. He has doubled down on harsh rhetoric that gave millions visceral hatred in him during the election.

Donald Trump has a solid 55% unfavorability rating according to the post-election poll of Gallup, which is far above the unfavorable ratings of Clinton, Dubya, or Obama.


Favorable Ratings of Recent Presidents-Elect
                            Date    Favorable    Unfavorable
                                               %    %
Donald Trump            2016 Nov 9-13    42    55
Barack Obama            2008 Nov 7-9    68    27
George W. Bush    2000 Dec 15-17    59    36
Bill Clinton            1992 Nov 10-11    58    35

Even if Donald Trump won with less than even a plurality of the popular vote, so did Dubya. But while Dubya avoided making polarizing statements that basically told people who voted against him that they no matter in the political system, Donald Trump has said such on most issues. It is obviously far easier to develop credibility among those who might have had squishy opposition to one if one starts offering something other than "Suck it up, loser!" Meanwhile, protests and demonstrations all directed at him proliferate.

Donald Trump started out decidedly to the Right and has delved into the rhetoric of the political f-word. He might get away with it if he can succeed in creating mass enmity for minority groups, something that many Americans find appalling. Even should he back down from the virulent rhetoric, the damage may be irreparable.

Note, of course, that this projection is very different from the cause of the Carter loss to Reagan. Nobody yet predicts stagflation or some hostage crisis. Will moderate white American Christians show solidarity with minorities that did nothing wrong? I most certainly hope so. Or will white people start recognizing how dangerous and objectionable he is once he starts hurting their economic interests?  That would make Donald Trump very much a one-term President should he choose to run for re-election.  

[philly09]

This from Reagan's 1980 RNC acceptance speech:

"We need rebirth of the American tradition of leadership at every level of government and in private life as well. The United States of America is unique in world history because it has a genius for leaders--many leaders--on many levels. But, back in 1976, Mr. Carter said, "Trust me." And a lot of people did. Now, many of those people are out of work. Many have seen their savings eaten away by inflation. Many others on fixed incomes, especially the elderly, have watched helplessly as the cruel tax of inflation wasted away their purchasing power. And, today, a great many who trusted Mr. Carter wonder if we can survive the Carter policies of national defense.

"Trust me" government asks that we concentrate our hopes and dreams on one man; that we trust him to do what's best for us. My view of government places trust not in one person or one party, but in those values that transcend persons and parties. The trust is where it belongs--in the people. The responsibility to live up to that trust is where it belongs, in their elected leaders. That kind of relationship, between the people and their elected leaders, is a special kind of compact."

Replace "Trust Me" with "Believe Me" and Carter with Trump, and you can easily see the Democrat giving the same type of speech in 2020.

[Person Man]

This from Reagan's 1980 RNC acceptance speech:

"We need rebirth of the American tradition of leadership at every level of government and in private life as well. The United States of America is unique in world history because it has a genius for leaders--many leaders--on many levels. But, back in 1976, Mr. Carter said, "Trust me." And a lot of people did. Now, many of those people are out of work. Many have seen their savings eaten away by inflation. Many others on fixed incomes, especially the elderly, have watched helplessly as the cruel tax of inflation wasted away their purchasing power. And, today, a great many who trusted Mr. Carter wonder if we can survive the Carter policies of national defense.

"Trust me" government asks that we concentrate our hopes and dreams on one man; that we trust him to do what's best for us. My view of government places trust not in one person or one party, but in those values that transcend persons and parties. The trust is where it belongs--in the people. The responsibility to live up to that trust is where it belongs, in their elected leaders. That kind of relationship, between the people and their elected leaders, is a special kind of compact."

Replace "Trust Me" with "Believe Me" and Carter with Trump, and you can easily see the Democrat giving the same type of speech in 2020.

It could be very Melania like.

[Comrade Funk]

The only vibe from Nixon '72 I'm getting is that he'll do something impeachable.

[I’m not Stu]

Carter 2.0.

[The_Doctor]

More like W. 2004 but history doesn't repeat, only rhymes. Polarization means that Trump can only pick up Maine and Minnesota, at this point and he will cede the urban dominated areas.

There is no emerging Trump majority. He lost the popular vote by 2.5 million; so the GOP will need to make up that plus add a million or two.

[Bismarck]

I like how it's the Republicans who are saying that the Democrats have a small bench...

The only tier one candidate you guys have is Klobuchar. We have a large amount of governors and young senators.

[Person Man]

I like how it's the Republicans who are saying that the Democrats have a small bench...

The only tier one candidate you guys have is Klobuchar. We have a large amount of governors and young senators.

Until many lose in 2018...or guvs at least.

[GlobeSoc]

More like Warren Harding corruption with a Hoover recession

[mgop]

if he fulfill promises, he will win 36 states (this 30 + mn, nh, me, va, co, nv). so yeah almost like nixon '72.

[JJC]

Trump proves you all wrong, and here you are underestimating him again!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zT0Rjc6jKCg

[Person Man]

Trump proves you all wrong, and here you are underestimating him again!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zT0Rjc6jKCg

Didn't Bush claim that we all misunderestimated him?

[krazen1211]

More like W. 2004 but history doesn't repeat, only rhymes. Polarization means that Trump can only pick up Maine and Minnesota, at this point and he will cede the urban dominated areas.

There is no emerging Trump majority. He lost the popular vote by 2.5 million; so the GOP will need to make up that plus add a million or two.

Of course not. They just need to make sure the undesirable population self packs itself into already blue states. No reason to win the popular vote in 2020.