What are the bellweather states?

[°Leprechaun]

Ohio is currently the one that has been right the longest.
Will it be replaced by states like Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, or Wisconsin if it doesn't go with the winner in 2020? It is currently trending more Republican than many states. What about Iowa?
Until 2008, Missouri had the best track record, but clearly it is hard for the Democrats to regain, at least in a close election.

[Person Man]

Florida? Though it was reliably red until 1992.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Va, PA and NH and NV will do it for Dems in 2020.

[Xing]

By this point, Pennsylvania and Florida seem like they'll be bellwethers. I think Ohio's days are numbered.

[mencken]

It pretty much has to be Florida by default. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania would qualify if we decide to ignore elections before 2008.

[Kingpoleon]

Florida? Though it was reliably red until 1992.

Florida predicted the winner every year from 1964-2016, with the sole exception of 1992.

[Mr. Smith]

Florida for EV, New Mexico for PV

Ohio is currently the one that has been right the longest.
Will it be replaced by states like Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, or Wisconsin if it doesn't go with the winner in 2020? It is currently trending more Republican than many states. What about Iowa?
Until 2008, Missouri had the best track record, but clearly it is hard for the Democrats to regain, at least in a close election.

No, Nevada has, with only Ford and H. Clinton as exceptions and in both cases, those were close.

Ohio grossly voted against JFK and FDRs 4th, and while it did vote for the winner this time, the margin was far to high to count as one.

[MT Treasurer]

Florida and Pennsylvania.

[SingingAnalyst]

Florida and Pennsylvania.

and Michigan, which has missed frequently in the past (1940, 1948, 1968, 1976, 2000, 2004).

[Figueira]

For the electoral vote (i.e. states that voted for Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016): Michigan (since 2008), Ohio (since 1964), Wisconsin (since 2008), Pennsylvania (since 2008), Florida (since 1996), Iowa (since 2004)

I think the one most likely to continue is Florida.

For the popular vote (i.e. states that voted for Bush in 2004 and have voted for Democrats since then): Colorado (since 2004), New Mexico (since 1980), Nevada (since 2004), Virginia (since 2004)

I think the one most likely to continue is Nevada, although it's very possible that they'll all fail the next time a Republican wins the popular vote (at that point, I can see places like Minnesota, New Hampshire and Maine becoming the new PV bellwethers).