New Battleground Map

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This one is more technical - Clinton or Trump needed to have won a state by more than 5% for to give it a lean and more than 10% to make it safe.

Safe Democratic - 183
Lean Democratic - 18
Tossup - 133
Lean Republican - 78
Safe Republican - 126

Thoughts?

[Person Man]

colorado still might hit 5%. It is at 4.83% now. Otherwise, its a good map.

[Person Man]

compare to the 2004 map.


i think 9/11 caused the 3 point swing in the PV as there were YUGE R swings in the NE and FL in 2004. The EV alone would suggest half of the wing.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/6A1N0
 

[°Leprechaun]

Has it occurred to anyone that there was only one tipping point state this year? If you flip the one state the other side wins.

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Has it occurred to anyone that there was only one tipping point state this year? If you flip the one state the other side wins.

Texas?

[°Leprechaun]

Has it occurred to anyone that there was only one tipping point state this year? If you flip the one state the other side wins.

Texas?

Correct; although it isn't really a likely swing state. If you could flip it the result is 270-268 and Clinton wins.

[Enduro]

I pretty sure that Texas is safe R, then again, Trump screwed up everything I thought I know about elections.

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Trump should do (much?) better in Texas in four years if it's a competitive election and he has decent approvals. Other than that, the map looks good (though maybe CO/NV/NH could be considered lean D).

Why, though? Clinton won them all by pretty small margins even as she won the popular vote.

[Person Man]

Trump should do (much?) better in Texas in four years if it's a competitive election and he has decent approvals. Other than that, the map looks good (though maybe CO/NV/NH could be considered lean D).

Why, though? Clinton won them all by pretty small margins even as she won the popular vote.

Nevada and New Hampshire, yeah. The 5 point rule is good.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Johnson has said that he won't run in 2020. I'd say that NM is safe Dem. VA could potentially be a tossup.

[Gabagool102]

Trump should do (much?) better in Texas in four years if it's a competitive election and he has decent approvals. Other than that, the map looks good (though maybe CO/NV/NH could be considered lean D).

Why would NH be considered lean D? The only way it would be lead/soild D is if Sanders was the DEM nominee. Clinton won the state by less than 3,000 votes. If Trump campaigned there more he could of gotten it. So if its Trump vs. Typical DEM it is a tossup.

[Kingpoleon]

I'd make Virginia Tossup if Trump doesn't run for re-election, as Hillary still got <50%.

[Dr. Arch]

I'd make Virginia Tossup if Trump doesn't run for re-election, as Hillary still got <50%.

By a fraction.

[pbrower2a]

In view  of the arrogance, ruthlessness, and extremism of the current Republican Party, how do we know that the 2020 Presidential election will not be rigged?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Under that map, Trump actually starts out with a nominal advantage: 204 (R Safe + Lean) - 201 (D Safe + Lean). Say goodbye to the "natural democratic EC advantage".

[I’m not Stu]

Gray is tossup. Red is safe D. Blue is safe R. Light red is lean D. Light blue is lean R.

[Person Man]

Under that map, Trump actually starts out with a nominal advantage: 204 (R Safe + Lean) - 201 (D Safe + Lean). Say goodbye to the "natural democratic EC advantage".

Add CO though...won't they be passing 5?

[DeSantis4Prez]

Safe Democratic: 198
Lean Democratic: 22
Tossup: 102
Lean Republican: 36
Safe Republican: 180

[Dr. Arch]

Safe Democratic: 198
Lean Democratic: 22
Tossup: 102
Lean Republican: 36
Safe Republican: 180

Um, Oregon? What?

[The Chill Moderate Republican]

Gray is tossup. Red is safe D. Blue is safe R. Light red is lean D. Light blue is lean R.

Wait, shouldn't Missouri be safe republican and Minnesota be considered a swing state? this isn't a 2012 election map we are doing here.

[Lachi]

Safe Democratic: 198
Lean Democratic: 22
Tossup: 102
Lean Republican: 36
Safe Republican: 180

Please tell us that Oregon was an error..

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Safe Democratic: 198
Lean Democratic: 22
Tossup: 102
Lean Republican: 36
Safe Republican: 180

Please tell us that Oregon was an error..

[dw93]

[JGibson]

My battleground map (as of 06.23.2017):

Safe D = 80 Red
Likely D = 60 Red
Lean D = 40 Red
Tilt D = 30 Red
Tossup = 50 Gray
Tilt R = 30 Blue
Lean R = 40 Blue
Likely R = 60 Blue
Safe R = 80 Blue

[Xing]

I considered making Michigan Lean D, since I think it will be VERY hard for Trump to hold on to it, but I'll keep it as a Toss-Up for now, out of an abundance of caution.