New Battleground Map
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Author Topic: New Battleground Map  (Read 6427 times)
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #25 on: June 24, 2017, 01:12:14 PM »
« edited: June 24, 2017, 01:15:10 PM by Power to the Pe p e! »

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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #26 on: June 24, 2017, 01:13:24 PM »



Safe Democratic: 198
Lean Democratic: 22
Tossup: 102
Lean Republican: 36
Safe Republican: 180


If Oregon is going Republican the GOP needs to win 360 electoral votes and by 10 points nationally which Trump is not going to do. Candidate Kasich could have done that year or President Romney (if he won in 2012) could have won by 10 points nationally and thus probably win Oregon but Trump wont.
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Spark
Spark498
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« Reply #27 on: June 24, 2017, 01:27:58 PM »
« Edited: June 24, 2017, 01:43:33 PM by Spark498 »

(as of 6/24/17):



Trump: 251 EVs
Democrat: 212 EVs

Safe D = 80%, 188 EVs
Likely D = 60%, 0 EVs
Lean D = 40%, 24 EVs
Tilt D = 30%, 0 EVs
Tossup = 50/50, 75 EVs
Tilt R = 30%, 0 EVs
Lean R = 40%, 64 EVs
Likely R = 60%, 24 EVs
Safe R = 80%, 163 EVs
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #28 on: June 24, 2017, 01:32:27 PM »



WI will be the key in the nxt election
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #29 on: June 24, 2017, 04:26:47 PM »

Out of curiosity, why do so many people here think NH is a Tossup and ME is Likely D? If you think Trump will do significantly worse in ME than in 2016, why would he do any better or even be competitive in NH?
NH has voted to the right of ME for ages.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #30 on: June 24, 2017, 05:26:53 PM »

Out of curiosity, why do so many people here think NH is a Tossup and ME is Likely D? If you think Trump will do significantly worse in ME than in 2016, why would he do any better or even be competitive in NH?
NH has voted to the right of ME for ages.


Although Maine is much more rural and they only have one big liberal region (Portland metro) so I can see the northern and rural regions stampeding right like Virginia has to the left. in NH, we have our base on the mass border and up around the lake. But those college towns combined pack a strong punch, especially Durham and Keene (70% dem) and Hanover (90!!% dem)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #31 on: June 24, 2017, 06:56:22 PM »

OH and Iowa aren't red states, they're not tipping point states.  OH, Iowa, NC and FL are very much swing states.  But: NH, CO, NV, NM, MI, WI, and Va are the tipping point states.  And Cory Booker/Hickenlooper will ensure that Joni Ernst is defeated and win Iowa.
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Strudelcutie4427
Singletxguyforfun
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« Reply #32 on: June 24, 2017, 07:50:19 PM »

OH and Iowa aren't red states, they're not tipping point states.  OH, Iowa, NC and FL are very much swing states.  But: NH, CO, NV, NM, MI, WI, and Va are the tipping point states.  And Cory Booker/Hickenlooper will ensure that Joni Ernst is defeated and win Iowa.

What does booker have that appeals to Iowans? Nominating a smug metropolitan Wall Street backed guy (like Hillary) would have Iowa likely R at worst
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #33 on: June 25, 2017, 02:38:17 AM »

Barack won Iowa easily. Clinton turned off voters with ethics. Booker is looking to win VA, WI, Pa, MI anyways. But Ernst is vulnerable and Iowa can turn blue again.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #34 on: June 25, 2017, 01:51:23 PM »

My map is something like this:

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Strudelcutie4427
Singletxguyforfun
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« Reply #35 on: June 25, 2017, 02:06:50 PM »

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #36 on: June 25, 2017, 02:16:49 PM »


I don't think anyone won't believe that with Trump approvals Booker can make a run at this map. Hes the only one like Obama that can make VA, MI, Pa and WI tilt Dem.
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Skunk
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« Reply #37 on: June 25, 2017, 02:25:20 PM »

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Confused Democrat
reidmill
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« Reply #38 on: June 25, 2017, 02:39:05 PM »


Gray is tossup. Red is safe D. Blue is safe R. Light red is lean D. Light blue is lean R.

I'm curious as to why you think Iowa is safer than Missouri for Republicans.
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JA
Jacobin American
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« Reply #39 on: June 25, 2017, 02:53:57 PM »
« Edited: June 25, 2017, 02:55:46 PM by JA »


Dark Red = Safe D | Red = Likely D | Light Red = Lean D | Gray = Tossup | Light Blue = Lean R | Blue = Likely R | Dark Blue = Safe R

228 EV | Lean, Likely, Safe D
231 EV | Lean, Likely, Safe R
079 EV | Tossup
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #40 on: June 25, 2017, 03:09:57 PM »

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #41 on: June 25, 2017, 03:32:01 PM »



279 D
209 R
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The Chill Moderate Republican
The Political Sandwich
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« Reply #42 on: June 25, 2017, 04:42:26 PM »


Did you post this map drunk? i'm slightly confused by you.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #43 on: June 25, 2017, 05:29:15 PM »

Its a good map
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
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« Reply #44 on: June 25, 2017, 06:50:12 PM »


Why did you use three different colors to signify "tossup?"
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #45 on: June 25, 2017, 07:01:06 PM »

Because Iowa is particularly in play because of Ernst. NC isn't needed, but still can move in a Democratic direction and FL is always a swing state, especially if a Dem governor is elected.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #46 on: June 25, 2017, 07:04:03 PM »

Because Iowa is particularly in play because of Ernst. NC isn't needed, but still can move in a Democratic direction and FL is always a swing state, especially if a Dem governor is elected.
Ernst is fine for IA, and from what I've seen, her approval rating is positive.  Lean R
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #47 on: June 25, 2017, 07:06:31 PM »

Dems don't have a bench, but it won't be Patty Judge.
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DeSantis4Prez
lwp2004
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« Reply #48 on: July 01, 2017, 05:30:58 PM »



Safe Democratic: 198
Lean Democratic: 22
Tossup: 102
Lean Republican: 36
Safe Republican: 180
Please tell us that Oregon was an error..

Yes, Oregon was an error
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #49 on: July 01, 2017, 05:33:52 PM »



Safe Democratic: 198
Lean Democratic: 22
Tossup: 102
Lean Republican: 36
Safe Republican: 180
Please tell us that Oregon was an error..

Yes, Oregon was an error
Ok, thanks for the clarification.
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