New Battleground Map

[Person Man]

colorado still might hit 5%. It is at 4.83% now. Otherwise, its a good map.

[Person Man]

compare to the 2004 map.


i think 9/11 caused the 3 point swing in the PV as there were YUGE R swings in the NE and FL in 2004. The EV alone would suggest half of the wing.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/6A1N0
 

[Person Man]

Trump should do (much?) better in Texas in four years if it's a competitive election and he has decent approvals. Other than that, the map looks good (though maybe CO/NV/NH could be considered lean D).

Why, though? Clinton won them all by pretty small margins even as she won the popular vote.

Nevada and New Hampshire, yeah. The 5 point rule is good.

[Person Man]

Under that map, Trump actually starts out with a nominal advantage: 204 (R Safe + Lean) - 201 (D Safe + Lean). Say goodbye to the "natural democratic EC advantage".

Add CO though...won't they be passing 5?

[Person Man]