Interesting results from your state
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  Interesting results from your state
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Author Topic: Interesting results from your state  (Read 6019 times)
SingingAnalyst
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« on: November 19, 2016, 06:06:10 PM »

In Michigan:

Oakland vs Macomb Co: Prior to the busing crisis of the early 1970s, Oakland Co was decidedly more Republican. From 1972 to 2012 the two counties voted similarly in Presidential elections. In 2016, Oakland Co was a full ten points more Dem than Macomb (Oakland 51-43 Clinton; Macomb 54-42 Trump).

Within Oakland County, working class white communities (Hazel Park, Madison Heights, Waterford) trended strongly R while upscale communities (Birmingham, Huntington Woods) trended strongly D. Funky Ferndale and trendy Royal Oak each gave minor parties 8%, compared with 5% countywide and statewide.

At the other end, exurban Lapeer Co, lying just N of Oakland and Macomb, went 67-28 Trump, even more so than traditionally Republican upscale Livingston Co (62-33 Trump). Even struggling Saginaw Co and Bay Co went GOP for first time since 1984.

This is also the first time since at least 1924 that Washtenaw Co (Ann Arbor-U of Mich) went more Dem than Wayne Co (Detroit).
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Figueira
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« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2016, 01:03:30 AM »

There's a "belt" of Republican-leaning towns in the middle of Massachusetts, and it moved further west this year. This is due to suburban Boston moving towards Clinton, while the rural center of the state moves towards Trump.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2016, 02:42:12 AM »

Dramatic swings in the "Grain Belt" of Oregon between '08 and '16....

Obama got

Gilliam County: 39%/35% Dem  in ('08 and '12) and Clinton only 24% and Republican votes surged from 58.4% t0 65.9%... Meanwhile Gore/Kerry were able to capture 33% of the vote and GHW was at 62 and 66%.

Sherman County: 37%/31% Dem ('08 and '12) and Clinton sunk to 20%. Republican votes went from 61% to 72% between '08 and '16 and GHW only captured 64%/63% in '08/'12.

Morrow County: 35%/31% Dem ('08 and '12) and Clinton sunk to 24%. Republican votes went from 62-65% between '08 and '16 and GHW captured 62%/66% in '00 and '04....

It appears that there was a complete collapse of Democratic votes in the Grain Belt, and Republican numbers remained relatively steady from '00 to '16 in Morrow and increased dramatically in Sherman and Gilliam, between '00 and '16, despite a major bump for Obama in '08/'12....

This is not a stereotypical Trump type country, so my current theory is that it has more to do with local statewide politics, unless there is some weird difference in policy positions between Clinton & Trump that would dramatically impact grain farmers.... (See Carter in '76 in the Dakotas for how nuances in policy positions can create strange local swings in GE elections).
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2016, 02:44:46 AM »

Parmer County swung 11 points D.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2016, 03:25:32 AM »


Parmer County was one of the WestTex counties on my watchlist for major Dem swings.....

Took some crap on the Forum for predicting some major Dem swings in WestTex, where there is a large Tejano and Latino community, many of whom vote more like their Anglo neighbors and coworkers, and higher rates of inter-communal marriage.....

ty... for the updates from WestTex! Lived out in Houston for 3-4 years until recently so always appreciate updates from the Lone Star State (Damn--- I wish I could buy a Lone Star beer now that I'm back on the West Coast.... Sad   )
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2016, 04:01:51 AM »


Parmer County was one of the WestTex counties on my watchlist for major Dem swings.....

Took some crap on the Forum for predicting some major Dem swings in WestTex, where there is a large Tejano and Latino community, many of whom vote more like their Anglo neighbors and coworkers, and higher rates of inter-communal marriage.....

ty... for the updates from WestTex! Lived out in Houston for 3-4 years until recently so always appreciate updates from the Lone Star State (Damn--- I wish I could buy a Lone Star beer now that I'm back on the West Coast.... Sad   )
I have been a DFW resident my whole life, fyi.
I was looking at the results on nyt's election results page the day after election night.
Parmer County stuck out to me a lot. It was surrounded by R trending counties. I was unsure why.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #6 on: November 20, 2016, 04:11:52 AM »

Stanislaus flipped to Trump, might flip back, but I doubt it

Everyone knows of Orange County.


Imperial was not one of the strongest by the standards of the state, despite the demographics.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #7 on: November 20, 2016, 04:16:24 AM »

Stanislaus flipped to Trump, might flip back, but I doubt it
Why?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #8 on: November 20, 2016, 05:29:33 AM »


Parmer County was one of the WestTex counties on my watchlist for major Dem swings.....

Took some crap on the Forum for predicting some major Dem swings in WestTex, where there is a large Tejano and Latino community, many of whom vote more like their Anglo neighbors and coworkers, and higher rates of inter-communal marriage.....

ty... for the updates from WestTex! Lived out in Houston for 3-4 years until recently so always appreciate updates from the Lone Star State (Damn--- I wish I could buy a Lone Star beer now that I'm back on the West Coast.... Sad   )
I have been a DFW resident my whole life, fyi.
I was looking at the results on nyt's election results page the day after election night.
Parmer County stuck out to me a lot. It was surrounded by R trending counties. I was unsure why.

Where you at in DFW???

One of the few parts of the state that I haven't been to, but saw Collins/Denton/Tarrant swinging hard  "D" (And I don't mean Dallas Wink ).... but was more focused on Harris County that I predicted would be a +10-15% Dem County this year, and a Fort Bend Flip, along with some other guesses from Metro SA and Austin.....
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politicallefty
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« Reply #9 on: November 20, 2016, 09:47:09 AM »

Stanislaus flipped to Trump, might flip back, but I doubt it

Everyone knows of Orange County.


Imperial was not one of the strongest by the standards of the state, despite the demographics.

Stanislaus flipped back to Hillary a few days ago, just as I predicted in another topic. The late count in the Central Valley tends to heavily favour Democrats, hence Ami Bera's relatively comfortable reelection. (On the other hand, they need to put a strong effort in to flipping CA-10, which really shouldn't be that hard.)

I don't know why you point out Imperial County. I think Hillary's 41%+ win in the county is probably the biggest win for any Democrat ever, although I've only seen results back to 1920.

As for Orange County, I fully agree. I had a strong feeling she would win prior to the election, but her current margin is far more than I ever could have imagined. On a good night, I was expecting something like 49-46 for Hillary. She's up in Orange County by a 51-43 margin, with 122k ballots left to count. That's a massive historic swing.
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VPH
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« Reply #10 on: November 20, 2016, 08:59:37 PM »

-Crawford County swung bigtime towards Trump (I called this but others in the state doubted me)
-Jill Stein performed shockingly well statewide
-Johnson County came VERY close to flipping
-Multiple SW counties with high Latino populations swung to Hillary and are now more Democratic than ancestrally blue counties like Cherokee and Cowley
-Hillary did worse than Obama in Sedgwick County
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Bismarck
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« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2016, 09:07:28 AM »

Hamilton County (Carmel Noblesville Fishers) voting less than 60% R in an election where Vermillion county (Western Border traditionally democrat) votes 65 % R.
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Intell
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« Reply #12 on: November 22, 2016, 09:12:34 AM »

Stanislaus flipped to Trump, might flip back, but I doubt it

Everyone knows of Orange County.


Imperial was not one of the strongest by the standards of the state, despite the demographics.

Stanislaus flipped back to Hillary a few days ago, just as I predicted in another topic. The late count in the Central Valley tends to heavily favour Democrats, hence Ami Bera's relatively comfortable reelection. (On the other hand, they need to put a strong effort in to flipping CA-10, which really shouldn't be that hard.)

I don't know why you point out Imperial County. I think Hillary's 41%+ win in the county is probably the biggest win for any Democrat ever, although I've only seen results back to 1920.

As for Orange County, I fully agree. I had a strong feeling she would win prior to the election, but her current margin is far more than I ever could have imagined. On a good night, I was expecting something like 49-46 for Hillary. She's up in Orange County by a 51-43 margin, with 122k ballots left to count. That's a massive historic swing.

Elliot County, cough cough.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: November 22, 2016, 10:00:38 AM »

The divergence in the WOW counties:

2012:

Ozaukee: 64.63% Romney - 34.32% Obama
Washington: 69.55% Romney - 29.42% Obama
Waukesha: 66.76% Romney - 32.31% Obama

2016:

Ozaukee: 55.83% Trump - 36.97% Clinton
Washington: 66.70% Trump - 26.89% Clinton
Waukesha: 59.99% Trump - 33.33% Clinton
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MarkD
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« Reply #14 on: November 22, 2016, 04:05:42 PM »

The most interesting thing I can see going on in the unofficial results in Missouri is the botched job the Missouri Secretary of State has done with handling the "election night reports" from all the local/county election officials.
Many of the biggest counties in Missouri reported, on election night, only the total number of write-in votes cast, without addressing whether the write-ins were valid, for official candidates, nor without any breakdown of which candidates got how many votes. There were five official write-in candidates, and those five were listed in this order: Marshall Schoenke, Tom Hoefling, Laurence Kotlikoff, Evan McMullin, and Rocky De La Fuente. It is pretty obvious to me that McMullin should be getting a huge majority of all valid write-in votes. But the preliminary reports are the only vote totals that the Missouri Secretary of State has on their website, and apparently the folks in the state capitol who tabulate the reports from each local/county election authority, if they have only a total number of write-in votes cast and no breakdown, are attributing all of the write-in votes to Marshall Schoenke. So the SoS website, even now, two weeks after the vote, has that Schoenke received 11,503 write-in votes, McMullin received only 1,372 write-in votes, and 49 other votes were split among the other three candidates. This makes no sense. I am guessing that of those 11,503, thousands of them will end up being confirmed as having actually been invalid votes, and that McMullin will get nearly all of the rest.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #15 on: November 24, 2016, 04:24:58 AM »

Iron County going the way of West Virginia and had a 38-point swing to Trump. The fact that it voted to the right of Rush Limbaugh's home Cape Girardeau County is astonishing.
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« Reply #16 on: November 24, 2016, 05:28:20 AM »

San Benito used to be a bellwether county for California, but Hillary only won it by 21, versus 29 for statewide. Alpine, Mono, and Orange have a long history of voting together for the Republican, and this year they voted together for the Democrat. Most California counties swung Democrat, but the northeastern part of the state swung Republican. Back when California was much less Democratic 50 years ago, Lassen was a reasonably Democratic county, but Trump broke 70% there.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #17 on: November 24, 2016, 12:59:18 PM »

Missouri's write in situation is quite odd. Write in reporting has been quite poor overall this year. Most CA counties haven't broken down their results yet; some haven't even reported any write ins at all.

Supposedly Wyoming could count McMullin's results, but he might not have paid the fee. Pity. I would've liked to have seen his results in the more heavily Mormon parts (it would also give a better idea of Bernie write ins).

NH and VT did report all of their write ins; hopefully Atlas will be updated to show Bernie's results broken off from the rest of the write ins (I'd like to see some of the former Republican contestants as well; Kasich got 0.2% in VT, for example).

San Benito used to be a bellwether county for California, but Hillary only won it by 21, versus 29 for statewide. Alpine, Mono, and Orange have a long history of voting together for the Republican, and this year they voted together for the Democrat. Most California counties swung Democrat, but the northeastern part of the state swung Republican. Back when California was much less Democratic 50 years ago, Lassen was a reasonably Democratic county, but Trump broke 70% there.

Mono and Alpine haven't gone Republican in a presidential election since 2000.

Lassen (and to a lesser extent, Plumas) is quite interesting. Jerry Brown won both in 1974 and 1978. Gerald Ford lost them in 1976 despite carrying the state. Even as recently as 1998, Gray Davis (D) got 45% and kept Dan Lungren (R) under 50% in the 1998 gubernatorial race.
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OneJ
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« Reply #18 on: November 24, 2016, 07:16:03 PM »

Mississippi was the absolute worst state for Gary Johnson. He barely got 1% here. His second worst was in D.C. at 1.58%. That means if you round, Gary would have at least 2% in every state except for Mississippi!

I was also not expecting the Sipp to swing so heavily towards Trump (same goes for most other states).
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #19 on: November 24, 2016, 09:56:10 PM »

That Pinellas went to Trump and that Volusia county has continued our Republican Trend.
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muon2
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« Reply #20 on: November 25, 2016, 02:14:40 PM »

Alexander county, IL was 56-42 for Obama in 2012 and went 53-45 for Trump. Alexander is historically Dem with a 35% black population and a median household income of 25k.
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jaichind
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« Reply #21 on: November 25, 2016, 08:33:22 PM »

Franklin County from Upstate NY.  It went from Obama 62-36 to Trump 49-42.    This and St. Lawrence County next to it were made for Trump but still the scale of swing was massive with St. Lawrence County swing just below it going from Obama 57-41 to Trump 52-41.
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Torie
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« Reply #22 on: November 26, 2016, 10:13:21 AM »

MI is not my state, but I did the analysis below to evaluate the sources of the drop of the Dem margin in Wayne County from 2012. About half of the Dem drop is due to the drop in the black vote in Detroit. Ex-Detroit, about two thirds of the Dem drop was due to votes switching to Trump. There was also almost no switch to Trump in Detroit. Yes, I know, none of this should be particularly shocking, except perhaps the degree of the black turnout drop. The Dems in Detroit were asleep at the switch I guess. The erosion was much less severe in Philly, although it existed there too.

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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #23 on: November 26, 2016, 01:51:52 PM »

Mississippi was the absolute worst state for Gary Johnson. He barely got 1% here. His second worst was in D.C. at 1.58%. That means if you round, Gary would have at least 2% in every state except for Mississippi!

I was also not expecting the Sipp to swing so heavily towards Trump (same goes for most other states).
I noticed the pro-Trump swing in MS as well. The three counties that stand out as the most pro-Trump (George, Itawamba, Tishomingo) were also 90%+ for Nixon over McGovern 44 years ago.

I too am looking forward to your being able to vote.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #24 on: November 27, 2016, 01:15:06 PM »

San Benito used to be a bellwether county for California, but Hillary only won it by 21, versus 29 for statewide. Alpine, Mono, and Orange have a long history of voting together for the Republican, and this year they voted together for the Democrat. Most California counties swung Democrat, but the northeastern part of the state swung Republican. Back when California was much less Democratic 50 years ago, Lassen was a reasonably Democratic county, but Trump broke 70% there.

San Benito has basically stayed the same while the state as a whole has moved to the left. That's been happening for a few years now. Santa Barbara looks like the bellwether now in a number of cases, but the it looks like the true bellwether of California might now be Solano County. It's bad news if the bellwether is Santa Barbara. It's deadly for the Republican Party if the bellwether is now in the Bay Area.

If you look at the map right now, assuming Democrats take SD-29, it looks like a pretty durable supermajority that will last through the midterm (when Republicans did better than expected in 2014). Democrats could expand the majority to a 30-10 if everything went well, not to mention perhaps expanding the supermajority in the Assembly as well. If Democrats get a supermajority in the Senate now, there's no way they'll lose it in two years. It'd be a matter of keeping the Assembly.
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