current anti-bellweathers after 2016
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 26, 2024, 08:41:18 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 100% pro-life no matter what)
  current anti-bellweathers after 2016
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: current anti-bellweathers after 2016  (Read 1816 times)
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,630
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 20, 2016, 01:14:22 AM »

Orange County is a McCain-Romney-Clinton county and I'm sure there are a couple others. Are there any Kerry-McCain-Romney-Clinton counties out there, or even more luckless ones than that?
Logged
SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,639
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2016, 07:37:24 PM »

Orange County is a McCain-Romney-Clinton county and I'm sure there are a couple others. Are there any Kerry-McCain-Romney-Clinton counties out there, or even more luckless ones than that?
This is particularly notable since Orange County is quite large. I doubt there are any Kerry-McCain-Romney-Clinton counties of any appreciable size, since the demographics of the 2004-08 D trend are almost diametrically opposed to those of the 2012-16 anti-D trend.
Logged
GMantis
Dessie Potter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,984
Bulgaria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 26, 2016, 05:45:08 PM »

Orange County is a McCain-Romney-Clinton county and I'm sure there are a couple others. Are there any Kerry-McCain-Romney-Clinton counties out there, or even more luckless ones than that?
This is particularly notable since Orange County is quite large. I doubt there are any Kerry-McCain-Romney-Clinton counties of any appreciable size, since the demographics of the 2004-08 D trend are almost diametrically opposed to those of the 2012-16 anti-D trend.
There are none. The areas which swung Republican in 2008 swung even more Republican in 2016.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,708
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2016, 04:51:01 PM »

NM since 1976 has correctly predicted the popular vote winning and electoral vote winner except for 1976 Ford, 2000 Gore and 2016 Clinton and both Dems won the popular vote. 

While Ohio correctly has kept its bellweather status
Logged
Orser67
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,947
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: December 01, 2016, 03:02:13 PM »

aren't there a few Philly suburbs that voted for McCain/Romney/Clinton?

No, there are no McCain '08/Clinton '16 counties in PA.

Though there are a few of Bush '04/Clinton '16 counties:

Chester (highest median income state in PA), in the Philly suburbs. Chester voted for Romney.
Monroe, an outer suburb of NYC
Dauphin, home of the state capital of Harrisburg
Centre, home of Penn State
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,175


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: December 01, 2016, 11:17:08 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2016, 12:47:06 AM by Figueira »

Not a county, but North Reading, Massachusetts, voted for Gore, Kerry, McCain, Romney, and Clinton.

Edit: Walpole as well. I think distant suburbs of Boston are the only places where you'll find this.

Edit 2: I found one more--Scott Brown's home town of Wrentham.
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,135
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 15, 2020, 01:06:26 AM »

Not a county, but North Reading, Massachusetts, voted for Gore, Kerry, McCain, Romney, and Clinton.

Edit: Walpole as well. I think distant suburbs of Boston are the only places where you'll find this.

Edit 2: I found one more--Scott Brown's home town of Wrentham.

Bump, curious to see if there are any other ones that kept up the streak. Reading MA backed Biden this time around, so they finally voted for the winner.
Logged
Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,374
Israel


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 15, 2020, 03:04:24 AM »

Kenedy County, Texas (since 2012)

Interesting to watch: Haines Borough, Alaska; it has voted "wrong" since 2008.
Let's see if they've turned to Trump this time.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.038 seconds with 12 queries.