Was 2016 a realigning election?
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  Was 2016 a realigning election?
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Author Topic: Was 2016 a realigning election?  (Read 1434 times)
The Arizonan
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« on: November 20, 2016, 12:53:08 PM »

Hillary Clinton won states that Al Gore lost like Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia, but at the same time she lost states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Iowa.

Do you think this was a realigning election or a fluke?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2016, 12:55:18 PM »

Too early to tell.
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Cashew
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« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2016, 01:11:33 PM »

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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2016, 01:28:11 PM »

We don't know how many (if any) of the states Trump flipped represent a permanent change. Also, many states voted similarly to how they've voted in previous elections.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2016, 05:19:11 PM »

As far as Iowa and Ohio and NC and FL may not vote for Dems in 2020, but the rest will return to form

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jfern
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« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2016, 02:23:51 AM »

If the Democratic party continues to tell progressives and the working class to go screw themselves, it will realign even worse for them.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2016, 02:50:26 AM »

I don't know that I really like this concept. Bill Clinton totally turned the map around in 1992, but the signs of what would come were decently clear if you looked at the 1988 results. And while things have changed a lot since 1992, I'd argue there actually hasn't been a massive realignment since then. A few things have changed and solidified (West Virginia, Missouri, and some of WJC's Southern states going going red; Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada going blue), but the general structure of things seems stable.

This election, though, could be our 1988. We have clear signs of where things could go in the future. And to be honest, people were already talking about this happening (Rust Belt red, Sunbelt and Southwest blue). So what happens in the next couples cycles will really determine whether the realignment happens. To keep it in perspective, Donald Trump won all of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania by basically 1.

So if Democrats can win back these places (which is definitely possible), they'll stave off realignment and potentially expand on the current structure of things with more support in the South/Southwest. If they can't, they will need the South/Southwest, and the country's structure of presidential political support will have truly realigned.



(^Far down the line, maybe.)

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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2016, 08:05:58 AM »

there is no more anti-worker-class mainstream party in the western world thant he Ryan-ite GOP...but i guess, trump could block Ryan from alienating his new voters the first chance he can get.
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