Are the Republicans eventually in trouble down the road?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:05:05 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  U.S. General Discussion (Moderators: The Dowager Mod, Chancellor Tanterterg)
  Are the Republicans eventually in trouble down the road?
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: Are the Republicans eventually in trouble down the road?  (Read 2514 times)
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,603
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: November 22, 2016, 12:59:39 PM »

the partisanization of US politics makes the "age"-question possibly less important than in the past.

the reagan youth still is one of the most republican voting blocs.
Logged
Comrade Funk
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,136
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -5.91

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: November 22, 2016, 01:04:37 PM »

Yes, but the Democrats could very well screw it up with schmucks like Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi still running things. We can't win "Middle 'Murica" with them.
Logged
Mr. Reactionary
blackraisin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,784
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.45, S: -3.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: November 22, 2016, 01:16:32 PM »

Both parties are always at risk of oblivion. Lol this thread though. I'd have thought most dems would have pulled their heads out of the sand by now and stopped with the propecies about a glorious future without icky whites.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: November 22, 2016, 02:21:12 PM »

Both parties are always at risk of oblivion. Lol this thread though. I'd have thought most dems would have pulled their heads out of the sand by now and stopped with the propecies about a glorious future without icky whites.

It's not just about minorities. It's a generational issue as much as a white vs non-white issue. Young white voters are also substantially less Republican than whites as a whole. Even if you wanted to indulge the flawed "gets more conservative/Republican as they age" argument, with Republicans only getting +8% or less of young whites for at least a decade now, save for +3 more pts in 2014, doubling the GOP's share of these white voters when they grow up and supplant the older generations still only gets it about a 14% or so margin among them. That is far less than what they would need going into the future.

Assuming minority outreach fails to improve their margins among said groups much, Republicans need to build on their current share of the white vote, and new generation(s) of white voters do not give much reason to think that will happen in a useful time frame.
Logged
Hermit For Peace
hermit
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,925


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: November 22, 2016, 03:35:29 PM »


Both parties are in trouble down the road unless they both morph into something that is good for the people of America.

We do need to get rid of business as usual. Maybe Trump will forge a trail in that direction, maybe not. Curious to see if his own party is going to work with him in this regard.
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: November 22, 2016, 10:02:27 PM »

It depends on whether Republicans change the party's platform in the future to appeal to minorities and younger voters.
Logged
Pericles
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,066


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: November 22, 2016, 10:43:50 PM »

Demographics aren't destiny.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,798
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: November 22, 2016, 11:22:15 PM »
« Edited: November 22, 2016, 11:24:48 PM by Da-Jon »

Yes, the demographics in reapportionment favors Dems in 2020 with a new candidate Kamela Harris or Martin Heinrich can help Dems win both houses of Congress and the WH.  There were four justices over 75 (Ginnsberg, Late Scalia, Kennedy and Breyer) and likely in 2020 Justice Kennedy may step down and Breyer.  So, all hope is not lost in a still 5-4 Kennedy Crt.

And with Dems new state houses in NV, IL, WI, MI, NJ, ME can affect reapportionment as well.
Logged
Hollywood
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,697
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: November 23, 2016, 03:03:05 AM »

Now picture this for a second.

If Donald Trump is a success.  I know crazy, but stay with me.  If he could put forward and enact policies such as a stimulus, tax cuts, millionaire tax, and works with the Russians to defeat ISIS (a group unintentionally created by Democrats), then wouldn't he absolutely get a second term?  And if he could change the minds of Republicans on many of the issues that many Democrats hold dear, wouldn't that enable the Republican Party to change from the inside. 

Crazy, huh? 

I mean what has the guy proven so far?  That you can win without Corporate money.  That you can win an election despite the corporate media absolutely destroying you on a daily basis.  That you can win without the support of major Republican Senators, Congressmen, former presidents, and past candidates for presidents.  That you can cause the other party to change into a more progressive party.  That you can take down two political monarchies in the country (Clinton and Bush families).

Are the Republicans in trouble?  Maybe.  That all depends on Trump now. 
Logged
Mr. Reactionary
blackraisin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,784
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.45, S: -3.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: November 23, 2016, 07:42:09 AM »
« Edited: November 23, 2016, 07:02:04 PM by Mr. Reactionary »


And with Dems new state houses in NV, IL, WI, MI, NJ, ME can affect reapportionment as well.

Wisconsin and Michigan are Republican controlled and maine is currently split.
Logged
The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,271


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: November 23, 2016, 10:08:14 AM »

The GOP is more at risk of oblivion. The civil war between the white working class and corporate class is in suspension right now, but will explode with neutron bomb force if Trump loses 2020/the next time they're out of power.

Add demography on top of that and a changing economy (the biggest bomb of them all) and here is your new Democratic majority coalition -

1. College educated whites
2. Latinos
3. Blacks
4. Asians

They will probably be in sufficient force in 2024 for the Democrats to rule for quite some time.
Logged
Ye We Can
Mumph
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,464


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: November 23, 2016, 03:57:27 PM »

I feel like a thread like this is created every month or so.
Logged
RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,002
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: November 23, 2016, 03:58:58 PM »

The GOP is more at risk of oblivion. The civil war between the white working class and corporate class is in suspension right now, but will explode with neutron bomb force if Trump loses 2020/the next time they're out of power.

Add demography on top of that and a changing economy (the biggest bomb of them all) and here is your new Democratic majority coalition -

1. College educated whites
2. Latinos
3. Blacks
4. Asians

They will probably be in sufficient force in 2024 for the Democrats to rule for quite some time.

LOL, DONALD TRUMP won college educated Whites, and Republican House candidates won them handily.  Good luck with this wet dream.
Logged
Lincoln Republican
Winfield
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,348


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: November 23, 2016, 05:10:59 PM »

Keep telling yourselves that if it makes  you feel better after your devastating loss.

But clearly in politics, the tide goes out, the tide comes in.

There will be good times and there will be bad times for both major parties.

It runs in cycles.
Logged
The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,271


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: November 23, 2016, 06:18:39 PM »
« Edited: November 23, 2016, 06:27:58 PM by Truman Democrat »

The GOP is more at risk of oblivion. The civil war between the white working class and corporate class is in suspension right now, but will explode with neutron bomb force if Trump loses 2020/the next time they're out of power.

Add demography on top of that and a changing economy (the biggest bomb of them all) and here is your new Democratic majority coalition -

1. College educated whites
2. Latinos
3. Blacks
4. Asians

They will probably be in sufficient force in 2024 for the Democrats to rule for quite some time.

LOL, DONALD TRUMP won college educated Whites, and Republican House candidates won them handily.  Good luck with this wet dream.

48-45%. 44% also voted for the House Democrats. I know you want to believe your “white permanent majority“ here but it isn't.

Logged
The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,271


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: November 23, 2016, 06:19:43 PM »

Keep telling yourselves that if it makes  you feel better after your devastating loss.

But clearly in politics, the tide goes out, the tide comes in.

There will be good times and there will be bad times for both major parties.

It runs in cycles.

So devastating that the popular vote is 2.5 million votes for Hillary Clinton. Really a sporting mandate you have there.
Logged
hopper
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,414
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: November 24, 2016, 11:41:37 PM »

Demographics is not destiny. A third of minorities voted Trump. That is enough to get the GOP through 2028.

The Democrats need to be the party of viable economic solutions for the minority bloc to reach 80-90% Democratic and a bloc of white voters to abandon the GOP. I think the Democrats get there of course, but I think that relying on demography and voters to vote based on race and age is a stupid idea.

There is a reason Trump reached enough voters to win and enough abandoned Clinton. Let's not forget voters are malleable human beings who often change their opinion and don't like to be taken for granted. That's the whole point of a democracy.
Well 21% of non-whites to be exact that Trump won.
Logged
hopper
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,414
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: November 24, 2016, 11:46:55 PM »
« Edited: November 24, 2016, 11:48:38 PM by hopper »

Republicans are overly dependent on older voters and have essentially written off the Millennial generation for years, and probably completely with 4 years of Trump. 18-29 is a critical time in a person's life, where many views on the world, various issues and political parties are developed and hardened. The way the GOP has reacted to a changing America and how Millennials accept that is almost as if they implemented a strategy specifically to alienate future generations of voters post-Reagan.

Between the rapid growth of racial minorities, the decline of religion and Millennials eating up more and more of the electorate, Republicans should, imo, expect to see significant electoral problems in the early-mid 2020s, when Millennials come to make up at least half of actual voters.

It's hard to see how it will all play out, but Republicans shouldn't think that unified control and big downballot success right now means they have solid footing going into the future. Democrats probably thought the same in 1992/2008, and yet everything changed 2 years later.
Rapid Minority Growth-More like Latino's from Central America that have been rapidly growing as a % of the countries population the last 3.5 decades. The Black and Asian population hasn't had the rapid population growth that Latino's have had the past 3.5 decades.

BTW, Every election cycle is different anyway, You can only go one election cycle at a time.
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,603
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: November 25, 2016, 09:42:17 AM »
« Edited: November 25, 2016, 09:46:36 AM by ApatheticAustrian »

LOL, DONALD TRUMP won college educated Whites, and Republican House candidates won them handily.  Good luck with this wet dream.

the exit polls are known to have miscalculated some demographic numbers....otherwise trump would have won the PV by 2 points.

some experts guess that either clinton has won college-educated whites after all or her minority share was bigger than thought.
Logged
The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,271


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: November 25, 2016, 12:48:32 PM »

Demographics is not destiny. A third of minorities voted Trump. That is enough to get the GOP through 2028.

The Democrats need to be the party of viable economic solutions for the minority bloc to reach 80-90% Democratic and a bloc of white voters to abandon the GOP. I think the Democrats get there of course, but I think that relying on demography and voters to vote based on race and age is a stupid idea.

There is a reason Trump reached enough voters to win and enough abandoned Clinton. Let's not forget voters are malleable human beings who often change their opinion and don't like to be taken for granted. That's the whole point of a democracy.
Well 21% of non-whites to be exact that Trump won.

Yeah - this is a long term demographic nightmare for the GOP. But if the Democrats take the minority bloc for granted, Republicans winning are still plausible.
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,603
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: November 25, 2016, 12:50:12 PM »

granted or not doesn't matter as long as minorities are not spread proportionally over the whole map. Wink
Logged
Bismarck
Chancellor
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,343


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: November 25, 2016, 10:42:49 PM »

The GOP is more at risk of oblivion. The civil war between the white working class and corporate class is in suspension right now, but will explode with neutron bomb force if Trump loses 2020/the next time they're out of power.

Add demography on top of that and a changing economy (the biggest bomb of them all) and here is your new Democratic majority coalition -

1. College educated whites
2. Latinos
3. Blacks
4. Asians

They will probably be in sufficient force in 2024 for the Democrats to rule for quite some time.

LOL, DONALD TRUMP won college educated Whites, and Republican House candidates won them handily.  Good luck with this wet dream.

48-45%. 44% also voted for the House Democrats. I know you want to believe your “white permanent majority“ here but it isn't.



No party will ever have a permanent majority, but in the short term it seems more likely that college whites return to the GOP than it does blue collar midwesterners returning to the democrats.
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,603
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: November 25, 2016, 10:44:52 PM »

The GOP is more at risk of oblivion. The civil war between the white working class and corporate class is in suspension right now, but will explode with neutron bomb force if Trump loses 2020/the next time they're out of power.

Add demography on top of that and a changing economy (the biggest bomb of them all) and here is your new Democratic majority coalition -

1. College educated whites
2. Latinos
3. Blacks
4. Asians

They will probably be in sufficient force in 2024 for the Democrats to rule for quite some time.

LOL, DONALD TRUMP won college educated Whites, and Republican House candidates won them handily.  Good luck with this wet dream.

48-45%. 44% also voted for the House Democrats. I know you want to believe your “white permanent majority“ here but it isn't.



No party will ever have a permanent majority, but in the short term it seems more likely that college whites return to the GOP than it does blue collar midwesterners returning to the democrats.

depends on trump's way of governing, imho.

i think most of us agree that some parts of trump's base are among those who would feel the effect of ryan's reforms the most.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.066 seconds with 12 queries.