But that's a much more mild statement than what you seemed to be hinting at in the rest of your post.
What I was trying to say was that I don't know
exactly where and when Republicans will flameout, or how long the process will be. What I do believe is that diverging so far from the interests of future generations while also alienating them far beyond what a typical disagreement on various policy would entail is going to be devastating to Republicans in the future. The numbers Republican post with minorities and young people in general are absolutely horrid, and in a future where each generation is more and more diverse, it presents a huge issue for them. I mean, as I alluded to before, it's not even just diversification by a substantial difference of opinion on many issues that Millennials care deeply about.
But any reasonably informed political observer knows that. The more provocative question, which is I think what the thread is supposed to be about, is whether the next reversal of fortunes won't be just another cycle in the back-and-forth of American politics, but a precursor to the Dems having some kind of growing structural advantage due to demographic changes.
Well when I say "significant electoral problems," I mainly mean that the GOP is going to increasingly find itself out-voted in many regions when Millennials age more and begin voting more regularly, as is usual with age<>voting. I don't believe they will have any substantial redistricting advantage this round, either. Not with such an incumbent in the WH that will, imo, inevitably drag their party down quite a bit. I could be wrong on that, but I don't think I am.
An issue I do see is that Democrats do not seem to have prospects for an enduring Senate majority. The coalition of states Democrats can compete in do not give me hope, and I see no trends that could deliver such in my timeframe. I do think Democrats could maintain a small Senate majority for years, but it seems it would be based more on good timing and luck, and not by sheer power of favorable states.
The House is also tricky, and I'd like to see how Trump plays out and how redistricting goes. America is still urbanizing though, and a party heavily reliant on rural/exurban and to a degree, suburban voters is not in the best situation. I don't have the voting habits by age for individual districts, but dollars to doughnuts that it is dispersed enough to flip the House for an extended period of time, whenever those voters grow up and what appears to be equally Democratic voters take their spot in the younger age group.
The presidency I believe is just getting harder for Republicans to pull off, and would be a main advantage for Democrats for possibly however long it takes Republicans to make large inroads with minorities and young people, with every 4 years being more and more difficult. With the right candidates, I really would not be surprised if Democrats went on a 3-cycle streak in 2020+
That is, is it just that the Republicans shouldn't think that they "have solid footing going into the future" based on their current victory, because no victory indicates "solid footing"? Or is it that it's the Dems who have solid footing going into the future, and the '16 presidential election was just a hiccup?
Long-term, I think Democrats have a solid future and the GOP is on the rocks. Given the trends among the 18-24 age group, I'm coming to see 2016 as more of a Carter 2.0 situation. The GOP is clearly on the wrong side of America's rising generations, and they can't seem to fully appreciate that because older voters keep delivering them wins.
When you have another decade's worth of older voters die off, bringing down a huge number of the GOP's most reliable voters and not nearly enough new voters to replace them, you rapidly run into a problem that may have not been that apparent just years beforehand.
I think Democrats will maintain a presidential advantage, and eventually establish a more reliable majority, even if small, in the House, whose timing depends on what transpires over the next 4-5 years.
