Bruce Rauner in 2018

[I’m not Stu]

Gov. Rauner's approval rating is taking a nosedive. Do you think he will lose in 2018?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yes. In fact, I am not even sure if I will endorse him again.

[Kingpoleon]

Yes. In fact, I am not even sure if I will endorse him again.

Right now my list looks like this:
Cheri Bustos(D)>Daniel Hynes(D)>Napoleon Harris(D)>Chad Grimm(L). I don't know much about Andy Manar and Kwame Raoul, and I would probably support Michelle Obama. Lisa Madigan I doubt I would support. I am pretty sure I might support Rauner, unless a good Democrat somehow wins the primary, assuming no good Libertarian/Independent runs.

[GlobeSoc]

I may be a little biased because I really hope he loses, the bigger the margin the better. I have a strong aversion to moderate politicians in general, as while I'm ok with centrist voters, for the politicians it seems like a cover for being corrupt and sneaking their party's legislation through the backdoor, watered down and praised as a miracle of bipartisanship. Since I dislike the GOP as an institution (I started paying attention to politics in the aftermath of 2010) and I dislike moderate politicians, a moderate GOP pol is going to be a mega-HP.

In any case he's mostly doomed, especially if the midterm is neutral or a dem wave. Even in the unlikely event of a GOP wave, I expect that will only mean that it will be a tight race with the dem in the lead, unless the Dems are morons and nominate someone really bad.

[Kingpoleon]

I may be a little biased because I really hope he loses, the bigger the margin the better. I have a strong aversion to moderate politicians in general, as while I'm ok with centrist voters, for the politicians it seems like a cover for being corrupt and sneaking their party's legislation through the backdoor, watered down and praised as a miracle of bipartisanship. Since I dislike the GOP as an institution (I started paying attention to politics in the aftermath of 2010) and I dislike moderate politicians, a moderate GOP pol is going to be a mega-HP.

In any case he's mostly doomed, especially if the midterm is neutral or a dem wave. Even in the unlikely event of a GOP wave, I expect that will only mean that it will be a tight race with the dem in the lead, unless the Dems are morons and nominate someone really bad.

Maybe in Illinois?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Re: Why I may not endorse Rauner: While I am still glad that he has given the state a huge wake up call to its budgetary and economic problems crated under Quinn and Blagovich, it is clear that Madigan needs someone of his own party label in the gov. Office to be prepared to do anything serious. While I would never trust a partisan dem in the gov. Office, a more moderate dem like Durbin or Harris may be exactly what the state needs.

[Green Line]

Re: Why I may not endorse Rauner: While I am still glad that he has given the state a huge wake up call to its budgetary and economic problems crated under Quinn and Blagovich, it is clear that Madigan needs someone of his own party label in the gov. Office to be prepared to do anything serious. While I would never trust a partisan dem in the gov. Office, a more moderate dem like Durbin or Harris may be exactly what the state needs.

So you admit Madigan is a terrible hack who refuses to work with republicans but you'd rather just see him get his preferred guy in than actually have him compromise?  Sad.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Re: Why I may not endorse Rauner: While I am still glad that he has given the state a huge wake up call to its budgetary and economic problems crated under Quinn and Blagovich, it is clear that Madigan needs someone of his own party label in the gov. Office to be prepared to do anything serious. While I would never trust a partisan dem in the gov. Office, a more moderate dem like Durbin or Harris may be exactly what the state needs.

So you admit Madigan is a terrible hack who refuses to work with republicans but you'd rather just see him get his preferred guy in than actually have him compromise?  Sad.

Considering Madigan's preferred guy is a warren-style leftist - no.

[publicunofficial]

Yes. In fact, I am not even sure if I will endorse him again.

I'm sure Gov. Rauner is devastated at this news.

[Ye We Can]

Rauner will win, atlas is never right.

In all seriousness, he is underestimated as a candidate and out of staters don't understand the pathological hatred of Michael Madigan by the majority of Illinois and the Republican war chest that will remind them. Tossup.

[publicunofficial]

Rauner will win, atlas is never right.

In all seriousness, he is underestimated as a candidate and out of staters don't understand the pathological hatred of Michael Madigan by the majority of Illinois and the Republican war chest that will remind them. Tossup.

I'd be willing to bet most people in Illinois don't know who Michael Madigan is, tbh. Atlas mistake #1 is to all voters have as deep a knowledge into their state's inner workings as you do.

[smoltchanov]

Tossup for now. He's no Mark Kirk, that's for sure.

+1

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Rauner will win, atlas is never right.

In all seriousness, he is underestimated as a candidate and out of staters don't understand the pathological hatred of Michael Madigan by the majority of Illinois and the Republican war chest that will remind them. Tossup.

I'd be willing to bet most people in Illinois don't know who Michael Madigan is, tbh. Atlas mistake #1 is to all voters have as deep a knowledge into their state's inner workings as you do.

There was some poll posted here a while back that asked IL residents who they blamed most for the state's problems - Madigan or Rauner - and Downstate, Collar Counties, and Suburban Cook County all said Madigan by big margins. The city of Chicago blamed Rauner, but I believe the margin was a rather underwhelming 52-35.

[Mr.Phips]

If Dems beat Rauner, their first order of business should be to move governor's elections back to Presidential years.

[muon2]

Rauner will win, atlas is never right.

In all seriousness, he is underestimated as a candidate and out of staters don't understand the pathological hatred of Michael Madigan by the majority of Illinois and the Republican war chest that will remind them. Tossup.

I'd be willing to bet most people in Illinois don't know who Michael Madigan is, tbh. Atlas mistake #1 is to all voters have as deep a knowledge into their state's inner workings as you do.

There was some poll posted here a while back that asked IL residents who they blamed most for the state's problems - Madigan or Rauner - and Downstate, Collar Counties, and Suburban Cook County all said Madigan by big margins. The city of Chicago blamed Rauner, but I believe the margin was a rather underwhelming 52-35.

To add to Dwarven Dragon, this last cycle the entire Pub message for legislative seats was about Speaker Madigan. Pubs won a net of 2 Senate seats and 4 House seats on that message. Dems were close to losing a few additional seats in the Chicago 'burbs even though Clinton was racking up big margins. Even some House Dems are now questioning the direction under the Speaker.

[Figueira]

My feeling is that he'll lose, but it's not guaranteed.

[DrScholl]

In a midterm with a Republican President he'll need a lot of luck.

[coloradocowboi]

Bruce Rauner has a net -20 approval rating, is running as an R in Illinois, and will very likely face higher than normal ethnic minority and youth turnout unless our Fuhrer suddenly decides that he was just kidding about appointing anti-choice justices and wrecking the environment.

He is not favored. He's not even in neutral territory, even if the Speaker of the Illinois House is also unfavorably viewed.

[Figueira]

Okay yeah, Rauner is vulnerable but who the hell would run against him? If Durbin sticks to his word then the odds of him reelected go up. The only person I could see making this race competitive is Michelle Obama and I highly doubt she will run. This race is definitely winnable for Rauner.

Michelle Obama is the only person who could make the race "competitive"? I mean, it's one thing to say Rauner is favored, but saying that he'll most likely win in a landslide that Democrats will ignore is pretty silly.

[RINO Tom]

Tossup for now. He's no Mark Kirk, that's for sure.

I don't know, they're both PRO ABORTION REPUBLICANS!!!!!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tossup for now. He's no Mark Kirk, that's for sure.

I don't know, they're both PRO ABORTION REPUBLICANS!!!!!

As if abortion is the only issue worth caring about.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Dems can get a candidate to run, since this is a Trump midterm his chances of reelection are nill.

Cheri Bustos for GOV

[Xing]

Tossup for now. He's no Mark Kirk, that's for sure.

I don't know, they're both PRO ABORTION REPUBLICANS!!!!!

As if abortion is the only issue worth caring about.

It does seem to be for A LOT of people.

Anyway, Rauner is easily the most vulnerable Governor of 2018. He could win if Democrats recruit a dud, but unless he can turn his approval ratings around, he's going to have a hard time winning.

[RINO Tom]

Yes. In fact, I am not even sure if I will endorse him again.

What will he ever do?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Dems can recruit Cheri Bustos to run, Rauner is done, but even in a Quinn rematch, Rauner is in an uphill battle.