Almost impossible to knock off a first term incumbent

[Beet]

In the past century, this has only happened four times (Hoover, Ford, Carter, H.W. Bush), and of those four, only one of those times (Carter) did the incumbent's party control the White House for no more than four years. Food for thought.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Ford and HW were unique cases, but all this proves is that the President has to do pretty damn bad to be unseated after four years, a la Hoover and Carter.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

The more charismatic candidate always wins. The Dems must pick a bigger "personality" than Trump (almost impossible) to beat him. If Sanders is still healthy he has to run.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

sample sizes ffs

[Sir Mohamed]

The more charismatic candidate always wins. The Dems must pick a bigger "personality" than Trump (almost impossible) to beat him. If Sanders is still healthy he has to run.

Not totally incorrect, but I believe the Trumpster is not impossible to beat. Especially if he handles the presidency poorly and/or a recession occurs. A “bigger personality” is currently not there as I see it. The only ones I think of in this category are FDR, JFK, LBJ or Obama. But they’re either dead or term-limited. My hope is on Kamala Harris.

[Mr. Morden]

And most presidents who lost the popular vote end up not being reelected.  So either way, something unusual will happen.

[Inmate Trump]

Elizabeth Warren is a great attack dog against Trump.  She has great talking points.

I wonder how her e-mails are though.

[Person Man]

Trump should at least lose the House. I doubt he loses, though.

[The Mikado]

*Donald Trump squeezes together a winning electoral coalition comprised of 46% of the vote, which won four crucial states by under a point and a half each.*

"Trump is invincible!"

We'll see, but I tend to think that Trump's popularity in MI and PA will fade if he doesn't successfully accomplish his (basically impossible) promise to turn back the clock on employment prospects in unskilled positions there. Four years from now the Dems need to point out that he's just another politician making wild promises he doesn't keep.

[jamestroll]

We'll see, but I tend to think that Trump's popularity in MI and PA will fade if he doesn't successfully accomplish his (basically impossible) promise to turn back the clock on employment prospects in unskilled positions there. Four years from now the Dems need to point out that he's just another politician making wild promises he doesn't keep.

I completely agree with you. Those jobs are not going to return. The labor market is shifting. While Iowa and Ohio may be tough to get back, I would not 100% count them out yet. However, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania could well come back to the Democratic fold in 2020.

In general, i think Republicans are getting way overconfident. On some other sites and facebook, many are having PA and MI as solid Republican in 2020.

[DrScholl]

A 2 million vote popular vote deficits and decimal point wins in decisive states suggests that Trump is on thin ice. He's also got underwater approval unlike most incoming Presidents.

[White Trash]

The more charismatic candidate always wins. The Dems must pick a bigger "personality" than Trump (almost impossible) to beat him. If Sanders is still healthy he has to run.

Brian Schweitzer has enough personality to make Montana seem interesting.

[Bojack Horseman]

Elizabeth Warren is a great attack dog against Trump.  She has great talking points.

I wonder how her e-mails are though.

This is precisely why the DOJ needs to nuke WikiLeaks and prosecute those responsible for the hackings. We can't let them keep sabotaging elections.

[Fusionmunster]

Starts a thread called "Almost impossible to knock off a first term incumbent" then proceeds to list 4 first term incumbents knocked off.

[Person Man]

Starts a thread called "Almost impossible to knock off a first term incumbent" then proceeds to list 4 first term incumbents knocked off.

That's a 16 percent chance to beat someone who had a 22 percent chance of winning.

[Beet]

Elizabeth Warren is a great attack dog against Trump.  She has great talking points.

I wonder how her e-mails are though.

This is precisely why the DOJ needs to nuke WikiLeaks and prosecute those responsible for the hackings. We can't let them keep sabotaging elections.

LOL Trump's DOJ is going to nuke the people that got him into office?

Progressives need their own cyberwarfare arm. Use all legal means domestically; for the rest, base in countries like Ecuador or cities like Hong Kong, beyond the reach of the security state. Hack everyone, from Breibart to congress critters to white supremacist groups.

[Orser67]

We've never seen a president enter office with these kinds of unfavorable ratings, though.

[Ljube]

This whole thread - LOL!

2020 election - safe Trump.

[Xing]

Trends always continue until they don't.

[Person Man]

Elizabeth Warren is a great attack dog against Trump.  She has great talking points.

I wonder how her e-mails are though.

This is precisely why the DOJ needs to nuke WikiLeaks and prosecute those responsible for the hackings. We can't let them keep sabotaging elections.

LOL Trump's DOJ is going to nuke the people that got him into office?

Progressives need their own cyberwarfare arm. Use all legal means domestically; for the rest, base in countries like Ecuador or cities like Hong Kong, beyond the reach of the security state. Hack everyone, from Breibart to congress critters to white supremacist groups.

This. Democrats or even non alt-right Indies and Republicans are done until they can learn to play as dirty as the alt-right does (which includes getting away with it). Until that happens, they will always be on the wrong side of the water hoses. Maybe they get a fragile majority with the current state odmf affairs, but they will blow it until they have the neccesary tools.

[Mr. Smith]

Almost impossible for someone with no political or military experience of any kind to get into office. Just sayin'.

[pppolitics]

Democrats need to find someone with a personality bigger Trump.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

In the past century, this has only happened four times (Hoover, Ford, Carter, H.W. Bush), and of those four, only one of those times (Carter) did the incumbent's party control the White House for no more than four years. Food for thought.

there have been only 25 elections in the past century, and only 15 of those included a first-term incumbent running for reëlection (and that's counting those with partial terms)

so your ~only 4~ statistic is in fact over 25% of a very small sample

[Person Man]

In the past century, this has only happened four times (Hoover, Ford, Carter, H.W. Bush), and of those four, only one of those times (Carter) did the incumbent's party control the White House for no more than four years. Food for thought.

there have been only 25 elections in the past century, and only 15 of those included a first-term incumbent running for reëlection (and that's counting those with partial terms)

so your ~only 4~ statistic is in fact over 25% of a very small sample

1st term incumbents are 11-4, then?

If it is Trump in 2020, if we look at elected 1st termers sine 1896, we have

Wins: 1900, 1916,1936, 1956, 1984, 1972, 1996, 2004, 2012

Losses: 1912,1932, 1980, 1988

So yeah. 30% chance, actually.

[Crumpets]

Elizabeth Warren is a great attack dog against Trump.  She has great talking points.

I wonder how her e-mails are though.

Clinton ran as strong of an anti-Trump campaign as is possible, but lost because she was offering a weak alternative of "basically a third term of Obama." Warren can insult Trump all she wants, but it's just going to have the result of riling up his base even more and getting the newest Republican voters more entrenched in their beliefs.

And there's definitely something to be said about Democrats who stayed home this election, even in the face of such an anti-(big D) Democrat as Trump. More of the same won't get them to show up, unless Trump does something to specifically impact them.