Almost impossible to knock off a first term incumbent
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  Almost impossible to knock off a first term incumbent
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Author Topic: Almost impossible to knock off a first term incumbent  (Read 5153 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #50 on: November 24, 2016, 09:02:40 PM »

When was the last time the pv loser got this low of a share of the vote and still won?

No PV loser/EV winner has ever gotten this low share of the vote.

When one starts with a 55% unfavorability rate, one has much credibility to develop and many bridges to build. An even 2% shift in popular vote nationwide causes him or his successor to lose Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida in 2020. Even shifts are rare except in nearly-even races.

People whose sensibilities he insulted in 2016 will have a hard time voting for him in 2020... and many who voted for him will have to decide that he served their needs. So he promised jobs that did not appear or brought those jobs about by degrading the pay and working conditions of those already at work. If one still has a job but is living worse while economic elites live in opulent splendor, then one might see only a raw deal.

Donald Trump will have to betray the desires that he fostered among many workers because he made promises that cannot be delivered together. Add to that, most of those who got shut out of the political process for four years will want back in, and they will be strongly motivated if they are not shut down altogether.

Is there a new JFK/TR/Obama for the Democrats?  Such a young nominee would better understand the economic and political values of younger voters while not being beholden to special interests of aging groups within the Democratic party. Remember: by 2020 all Boomers (if you use Howe and Strauss/ divide between 1960 and 1961 between Boom and X -- Barack Obama is no Boomer; he acts much more like such Presidents as John Adams, Cleveland, Truman, and Eisenhower than like Clinton or Dubya) will be 60 or older at the end of the year. Elderly politicians can govern, but they need younger supporters for the bulk of their votes. Hillary Clinton got tepid support from the youngest voters and may have lost for that.

Minorities? It is easy to say that the Republicans will do better among them because they couldn't do worse than in 2016 while running a frankly racist campaign -- but it takes a long time to undo the damaging perception.

This is before people get to see his political persona fully sink in without the pressure to moderate to seem tolerable to moderates, and before he gets culpability or praise for his economic, military, or diplomatic policies. He is about as reckless as Obama is cautious, and such bodes ill.     
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #51 on: November 25, 2016, 05:17:28 PM »

I'm cautiously optimistic that MI, PA, and WI shouldn't be that hard to take back as long as we nominate someone who isn't complete anathema to the white working class. As Clinton's 232 electoral votes is probably the next Democratic nominee's floor, getting back just those three is enough.

Not to mention the potential in places like NC, AZ, and GA.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #52 on: November 29, 2016, 08:52:38 PM »

*Donald Trump squeezes together a winning electoral coalition comprised of 46% of the vote, which won four crucial states by under a point and a half each.*

"Trump is invincible!"

We'll see, but I tend to think that Trump's popularity in MI and PA will fade if he doesn't successfully accomplish his (basically impossible) promise to turn back the clock on employment prospects in unskilled positions there. Four years from now the Dems need to point out that he's just another politician making wild promises he doesn't keep.

Yeah, they threw a fit because Obama didn't buy them all a pony after eight years. They were desperate enough to turn to Trump - they're not going to show him any patience four years from now when he hasn't "brought the jobs back."

Will they "be in your party now" after the next four years?  Will you have to "have fun with that"?  Will it give me an amazing sense of Internet elitism?!  Will I be able to tell you about my college degree as if it's this common trait among those with my ideology?!

That will be the silver lining when the next Democrat amasses a coalition capable of winning: I'll get to be as cool and elitist as IndyTexas!
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Cuckslayer
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« Reply #53 on: November 29, 2016, 09:16:16 PM »

1. The Sanders/progressive wing of the Democratic Party will go to war with the moderate establishment who want to keep the Party friendly to big money donors.
2. Their bench is weak. Reminds me of the Repblican bench back in 2012.
3. Trump has incumbency advantage
4. Pubs fall in line behind their Party leader.

All I can say is that when I turn 21 on February 4 next year I'm gonna save up my money to buy Trump stock on betfair for his impending victory in 2020. I feel sorry for all the leftists on this board.
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oraclebones
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« Reply #54 on: November 29, 2016, 09:41:52 PM »

Trends always continue until they don't.

I'm glad at least someone is capable of seeing this plain fact. If this past election taught us anything it's that it's ridiculous to believe convention wisdom, historical trends, etc., mean very much.

Besides, "trends" like these are overly simplistic. In 2012, one could easily have said that Obama was unlikely to win reelection because history showed that only once, in 1916, was a president reelected for a second term by a smaller margin than they won their first term, and Obama was clearly not going to be reelected by a greater margin than his 2008 margin, so he was going to lose.

Oh, and remember Hillary Clinton's electoral vote firewall? How she would clearly win Michigan and Pennsylvania because Democrats had won them by secure margins for a couple of decades?

Here's a new trend I'm putting forward: Trump won't win reelection because America has never reelected a president who was an orange fascistic billionaire.
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Cuckslayer
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« Reply #55 on: November 29, 2016, 09:46:02 PM »

Trends always continue until they don't.
Here's a new trend I'm putting forward: Trump won't win reelection because America has never reelected a president who was an orange fascistic billionaire.

If he becomes a fascist like you claim then there wouldn't be an election by your own logic.

But that's none of my business.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #56 on: November 29, 2016, 10:05:36 PM »

     If we're looking at historical trends to guess the outcome in 2020, I would note that we have only had one previous string of three two-term Presidents (Jefferson-Madison-Monroe). Having four straight two-term Presidents (Clinton-W. Bush-Obama-Trump) would be unprecedented.
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oraclebones
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« Reply #57 on: November 30, 2016, 01:51:44 AM »

Trends always continue until they don't.
Here's a new trend I'm putting forward: Trump won't win reelection because America has never reelected a president who was an orange fascistic billionaire.

If he becomes a fascist like you claim then there wouldn't be an election by your own logic.

But that's none of my business.

In fact, I've posed that very question elsewhere-- See the topic "Honest question: Will there be an election in 2020?" But I do appreciate you pointing out the potential flaws in my logic, Cuckslayer.
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Cuckslayer
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« Reply #58 on: November 30, 2016, 02:32:09 AM »

Trends always continue until they don't.
Here's a new trend I'm putting forward: Trump won't win reelection because America has never reelected a president who was an orange fascistic billionaire.

If he becomes a fascist like you claim then there wouldn't be an election by your own logic.

But that's none of my business.

In fact, I've posed that very question elsewhere-- See the topic "Honest question: Will there be an election in 2020?" But I do appreciate you pointing out the potential flaws in my logic, Cuckslayer.

You double posted. Just a friendly reminder.


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oraclebones
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« Reply #59 on: November 30, 2016, 11:29:10 AM »

Trends always continue until they don't.
Here's a new trend I'm putting forward: Trump won't win reelection because America has never reelected a president who was an orange fascistic billionaire.

If he becomes a fascist like you claim then there wouldn't be an election by your own logic.

But that's none of my business.

In fact, I've posed that very question elsewhere-- See the topic "Honest question: Will there be an election in 2020?" But I do appreciate you pointing out the potential flaws in my logic, Cuckslayer.

You double posted. Just a friendly reminder.


I knew I could count on you, Cuckslayer.
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