The Dems need an autopsy -- they are now a completely regional party.
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  The Dems need an autopsy -- they are now a completely regional party.
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Author Topic: The Dems need an autopsy -- they are now a completely regional party.  (Read 6127 times)
MAGA
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« on: November 22, 2016, 11:31:03 AM »
« edited: November 22, 2016, 11:35:37 AM by MAGA »

What will it take to rouse them from their stupor?

They only have some strength along the Left Coast and the NE.

45% of their House of Rep numbers come from 6 states. CA, OR, WA, NY, MA & IL

Any claim to a mythical popular vote is rooted in one state,... CA

They are facing a bitter fight over who leads the party.

The average age of the current Congressional Dem leadership is 72, the Repubs is 49

Not very broad appeal. Dems are in no position to say that they represent the people as a whole.

And in 2018 they are facing a near death experience.

They should immediately check in to political rehab but I think they are still in their disease, denial stage.

What will it take to rouse them from their stupor?
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2016, 11:37:54 AM »


Indeed.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2016, 11:41:59 AM »

Blah, blah, blah. Sounds like you are trying to convince yourself of something more than anything else.
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Vosem
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« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2016, 11:42:48 AM »

They only have some strength along the Left Coast and the NE.

Not really true; I live in a very, very safe Democratic district in Ohio, for instance, which almost certainly, looking at county numbers, voted more heavily for Clinton than Obama.

45% of their House of Rep numbers come from 6 states. CA, OR, WA, NY, MA & IL

Sure, but then where is the other 55% from?

Any claim to a mythical popular vote is rooted in one state,... CA

This is true, but any claim that Trump has to a mythical electoral vote is rooted in just one state...TX. These things go both ways.

They are facing a bitter fight over who leads the party.

I think it's a rather foregone conclusion -- the real fight is coming in around a decade or so, when the progressive Sandernista wing actually has the demographic strength to fight for party control. They aren't quite there yet; this is a symbolic revolt by Democrats from places where the leadership is not well-liked to demonstrate to their constituents their independence from leadership.

The average age of the current Congressional Dem leadership is 72, the Repubs is 49

This is true.

Not very broad appeal. Dems are in no position to say that they represent the people as a whole.

Has any party really been in a position to represent the people as a whole since, like, the 89th Congress? That was the last time one party held the Presidency and veto-proof Senate and House majorities.

And in 2018 they are facing a near death experience.

Eh, if Republicans survived the 1930s, when they fell under 30 Senate seats, Democrats will survive falling to the low 40s in 2018. The two political parties in America will not actually fall until (and this does not guarantee anything, it is simply a prerequisite) there is a conscious effort, like there was in New Zealand in 1993, to reform the electoral system.

Anyway, considering the Republican responses to both 2008 (unified government inevitably becomes unpopular, and blind opposition positions you best to take advantage of it) and 2012 (the autopsy proposed a number of measures to reform the party; the voters decisively ignored them and then the party won the presidency anyway), I would have to say Democrats need no autopsy; they simply need to wait for Republicans to mess up sufficiently and then they will return to power by the strength of the system itself.
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jamestroll
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« Reply #4 on: November 22, 2016, 11:58:28 AM »

Just saying, after the 2008 Elections, the GOP was deemed as a regional party also..

People are overthinking results.
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MAGA
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« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2016, 12:05:41 PM »

Blah, blah, blah. Sounds like you are trying to convince yourself of something more than anything else.

I'm still drunk on your tears
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MAGA
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« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2016, 12:08:02 PM »

Just saying, after the 2008 Elections, the GOP was deemed as a regional party also..

People are overthinking results.

Nope, the Dems are trending away from winning the EC. Their ratio of number of votes to EC votes gets worse and worse...Repubs get better and better.
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jamestroll
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« Reply #7 on: November 22, 2016, 12:12:06 PM »

Just saying, after the 2008 Elections, the GOP was deemed as a regional party also..

People are overthinking results.

Nope, the Dems are trending away from winning the EC. Their ratio of number of votes to EC votes gets worse and worse...Repubs get better and better.

Nope,

I suspect in 2020 Democrats should be able to win MI, PA, and WI back. They would be highly competitive in Arizona, and I would actually expect them to win Georgia in 2020 if there is any investment. Virtually there was no investment in Georgia this cycle, and Clinton did relatively well.

In fact, if Trump can not keep his promises, I suspect Ohio and Iowa will be contestable.

And in 2020, I doubt Missouri and Indiana will be going to Trump by 20 points. Sure, it would be no additional electoral votes, but it helps down the ballot.

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MAGA
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« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2016, 12:15:53 PM »

Just saying, after the 2008 Elections, the GOP was deemed as a regional party also..

People are overthinking results.

Nope, the Dems are trending away from winning the EC. Their ratio of number of votes to EC votes gets worse and worse...Repubs get better and better.

Nope,

I suspect in 2020 Democrats should be able to win MI, PA, and WI back. They would be highly competitive in Arizona, and I would actually expect them to win Georgia in 2020 if there is any investment. Virtually there was no investment in Georgia this cycle, and Clinton did relatively well.

In fact, if Trump can not keep his promises, I suspect Ohio and Iowa will be contestable.

And in 2020, I doubt Missouri and Indiana will be going to Trump by 20 points. Sure, it would be no additional electoral votes, but it helps down the ballot.



Yeahhhh.. but you thought Clinton would win sooooo....you go that goin against ya
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Nyvin
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« Reply #9 on: November 22, 2016, 12:19:11 PM »
« Edited: November 22, 2016, 12:23:22 PM by AKCreative »

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How can you make that argument when they won 6 of the last 7 popular votes?

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Not really, it's looking great for picking up a large number of gov seats, which is going to be the real prize in 2018.
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jamestroll
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« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2016, 12:21:19 PM »

Just saying, after the 2008 Elections, the GOP was deemed as a regional party also..

People are overthinking results.

Nope, the Dems are trending away from winning the EC. Their ratio of number of votes to EC votes gets worse and worse...Repubs get better and better.

Nope,

I suspect in 2020 Democrats should be able to win MI, PA, and WI back. They would be highly competitive in Arizona, and I would actually expect them to win Georgia in 2020 if there is any investment. Virtually there was no investment in Georgia this cycle, and Clinton did relatively well.

In fact, if Trump can not keep his promises, I suspect Ohio and Iowa will be contestable.

And in 2020, I doubt Missouri and Indiana will be going to Trump by 20 points. Sure, it would be no additional electoral votes, but it helps down the ballot.



Yeahhhh.. but you thought Clinton would win sooooo....you go that goin against ya

Dude, ask TN Volunteer, ask others.. in some private conversations I was completing freaking out and going nuts. The rural vote I was seeing was going too strong for Trump...

And No, I am not a hack. I am probably the least hackish liberal here.
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MAGA
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« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2016, 12:41:30 PM »

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How can you make that argument when they won 6 of the last 7 popular votes?

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Not really, it's looking great for picking up a large number of gov seats, which is going to be the real prize in 2018.

You have 10 Senate seats up in now red states. Manchin will switch any day now.

What seats are you referring to?
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DrScholl
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« Reply #12 on: November 22, 2016, 12:44:57 PM »

Blah, blah, blah. Sounds like you are trying to convince yourself of something more than anything else.

I'm still drunk on your tears
I'm not crying, but laughing at the prospect of the a huge recession that will impact the states that bought into Trump's garbage.

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How can you make that argument when they won 6 of the last 7 popular votes?

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Not really, it's looking great for picking up a large number of gov seats, which is going to be the real prize in 2018.

You have 10 Senate seats up in now red states. Manchin will switch any day now.

What seats are you referring to?

He joined the Senate Democratic leadership, genius. With that said, midterms are horrible for the President's party, so don't expect many or any gains for Republicans.
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MAGA
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« Reply #13 on: November 22, 2016, 12:47:01 PM »

You're making no sense
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DrScholl
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« Reply #14 on: November 22, 2016, 12:48:34 PM »


I dropped knowledge on you and you can't refute it.
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MAGA
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« Reply #15 on: November 22, 2016, 01:01:27 PM »

You might have dropped you sh**t... I see nothing worth responding to.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #16 on: November 22, 2016, 02:37:30 PM »

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How can you make that argument when they won 6 of the last 7 popular votes?

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Not really, it's looking great for picking up a large number of gov seats, which is going to be the real prize in 2018.

You have 10 Senate seats up in now red states. Manchin will switch any day now.

What seats are you referring to?
Manchin's on the Senate Dem's team. Plus switching parties won't help Manchin if Trump fails to save coal. Besides, Jim Justice (D) won the gubernatorial race this year.

39 Governor seats are up and the large majority are Republican. If Trump isn't popular, it could get ugly. Also the Dems have a chance to recover the House.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #17 on: November 22, 2016, 03:05:11 PM »


45% of their House of Rep numbers come from 6 states. CA, OR, WA, NY, MA & IL

28% of the house of representatives as a whole (and a higher percentage of the american population) comes from those states. sorry, bud
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MAGA
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« Reply #18 on: November 22, 2016, 03:13:12 PM »


45% of their House of Rep numbers come from 6 states. CA, OR, WA, NY, MA & IL

28% of the house of representatives as a whole (and a higher percentage of the american population) comes from those states. sorry, bud

Sorry, you are incorrect. Here, let me help you.

CA 39 Dems, IL 10 Dems, MA 9 Dems, NY 18 Dems, OR 4 Dems, WA 6 Dems = 86 Dem Reps.

86 is 45% of 194, which is the number of House seats the Dems will have in the next Congress. You are a failing, degenerate, regional party.
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tallguy23
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« Reply #19 on: November 22, 2016, 03:19:24 PM »

This is what was said about the GOP in 2008 after Obama won.....and what happened in 2010?

Let's not overreact. American politics is very cyclical and quite predictable in terms of party swings.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #20 on: November 22, 2016, 03:30:18 PM »


45% of their House of Rep numbers come from 6 states. CA, OR, WA, NY, MA & IL

28% of the house of representatives as a whole (and a higher percentage of the american population) comes from those states. sorry, bud

Sorry, you are incorrect. Here, let me help you.

CA 39 Dems, IL 10 Dems, MA 9 Dems, NY 18 Dems, OR 4 Dems, WA 6 Dems = 86 Dem Reps.

86 is 45% of 194, which is the number of House seats the Dems will have in the next Congress. You are a failing, degenerate, regional party.
total number of representatives from those states: 122
total number of representatives: 435
122 / 435 = 28%

maybe learn to read before spouting off next time ㄟ(ツ)ㄏ
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #21 on: November 22, 2016, 04:12:07 PM »

oh and this
Any claim to a mythical popular vote is rooted in one state,... CA

is also a dumb argument. you can't just cut out 12% of the national population to prove your point. otherwise i could say, "any republican claim to an electoral vote victory is rooted in one demographic,… less-educated white men." (~17%)
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #22 on: November 22, 2016, 04:22:37 PM »


45% of their House of Rep numbers come from 6 states. CA, OR, WA, NY, MA & IL

28% of the house of representatives as a whole (and a higher percentage of the american population) comes from those states. sorry, bud

Sorry, you are incorrect. Here, let me help you.

CA 39 Dems, IL 10 Dems, MA 9 Dems, NY 18 Dems, OR 4 Dems, WA 6 Dems = 86 Dem Reps.

86 is 45% of 194, which is the number of House seats the Dems will have in the next Congress. You are a failing, degenerate, regional party.
total number of representatives from those states: 122
total number of representatives: 435
122 / 435 = 28%

maybe learn to read before spouting off next time ㄟ(ツ)ㄏ

Boy, you are dumb, dumber than the dumbest jackass. I'll give you one more chance.

You will have 194 Dem Representatives in the House next Congress. 86 of them are from just 6 states. 45% of your membership in the House is from just 6 states.
i know that, sweetie. i'm pointing out that it's irrelevant.
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MAGA
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« Reply #23 on: November 22, 2016, 04:35:31 PM »

Nah Lez, we both know you fail
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #24 on: November 22, 2016, 11:54:01 PM »

The future I see for the Democratic Party

Northeast Coast

West Coast

With Maine, New Hampshire and Oregon as toss ups

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