The Dems need an autopsy -- they are now a completely regional party.
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  The Dems need an autopsy -- they are now a completely regional party.
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Author Topic: The Dems need an autopsy -- they are now a completely regional party.  (Read 6117 times)
hopper
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« Reply #50 on: November 27, 2016, 08:10:11 PM »

Democrats got more votes you dumb .
...yeah she got more votes in states that she didn't need more votes in and states that she needed more votes in she didn't get the votes she needed to win those states.

Anyway, I read something when Dems had "The South" they would run up margins in Southern States but they wouldn't get votes in other non-Southern States to win those states. I think that sort of happened to Hillary she ran up margins on the West Coast and Northeastern States(include VA.) She won other flyover states(CO, NV, NM, MN(barely) and IL) but that was basically it.
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Xing
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« Reply #51 on: November 27, 2016, 09:17:13 PM »

It's become a tradition to say that the party that loses is doomed.

2004: The Democrats are done for! They're just a coastal party now!

2008: The Republicans are done for! They're just a Southern party now!

2010: Obama is done for in 2012!

2012: The Republicans are done for! They're just a Southern party now!

2016: The Democrats are done for! They're just a coastal party now!
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JJC
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« Reply #52 on: November 27, 2016, 09:42:09 PM »

Just saying, after the 2008 Elections, the GOP was deemed as a regional party also..

People are overthinking results.

Nope, the Dems are trending away from winning the EC. Their ratio of number of votes to EC votes gets worse and worse...Repubs get better and better.

I don't know if that's true or not, but I do know that Dems have a massive geographical problem. Couldn't find a 2016 map, but here's 2012's map by counties where Obama won by 4 points nationally:


As you can see, dems won big in the coastal areas and cities, and pretty much nowhere else. Because they have so many of their voters confined to small regional areas, it does seem plausible that it would put them at a distinct electoral disadvantage. For example, Hillary won the pop vote because she banked a ridiculous amount of votes in CA (3.5 million more than Trump). But of course, the EV doesn't care if you win a state by one vote or ten million. All of the EV's go to the victor regardless.

So essentially, that's 3.5 million votes wasted that could have gone to more crucial areas of the country.

In contrast, GOP votes are spread out far more efficiently (especially Trump's).

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JJC
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« Reply #53 on: November 27, 2016, 10:07:06 PM »

Democrats consistently win more votes than Republicans.  Their votes are just less spread out.  As time goes on and demographics change, Democrats will win by wider and wider margins overall, and though their vote is more concentrated, it will eventually spread out just as it did from DC to VA/MD, which has made those two states Lean/Safe Dem.  This will happen in Georgia, Arizona, and Texas.  Democrats have a mortal lock on the Northeast and West Coast, so all they need to do is wait for more states to turn based on demographic changes... as has already happened in the Southwest + Virginia. 

I don't remember who said it, but I remember hearing the phrase "any attempt to create a permanent majority is doomed to failure."

People change. Cultures change. World events change our perceptions. And any time you aggressively push to gain one voting block, you will inevitably end up pushing away another. Dems tried to make a permanent majority by stitch-patching a multitude of minority and special interest groups. But this identity based venture ended up turning away the one group they weren't courting (and often the one blamed as all of the minority groups problems) - white voters.

@Nate_Cohn
How to think about this election: white working class voters just decided to vote like a minority group. They're >40% of the electorate.

Newton's third law. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. For example, Dems courting Latinos by advocating open borders/no deportations invariably pushed away people most devastated by illegal (and legal) immigration - white working class voters. 

Dems efforts may indeed get them some minority-heavy southern states in the future. But I'll bet that by the time that happens, some white-dominated, northern-rust belt states like WI, MI, PA, NH, OH, and IA will become staple light red states by then.

There's also the issue of proceeding generations of voters (particularly latinos) becoming more Republican as they Americanize (they identify less with their nation of origin and more as simply American.
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hopper
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« Reply #54 on: November 27, 2016, 10:08:58 PM »

1) Trump gained less support among Americans.

2) The Republican party is weak on economics beyond taxes.
Both parties really don't have an economic plan for the future. The Dems always say raise the minimum wage up to 15 dollars an hour but do they know how many jobs that that will cost?
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hopper
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« Reply #55 on: November 27, 2016, 10:14:06 PM »

What will it take to rouse them from their stupor?

They only have some strength along the Left Coast and the NE.

45% of their House of Rep numbers come from 6 states. CA, OR, WA, NY, MA & IL

Any claim to a mythical popular vote is rooted in one state,... CA

They are facing a bitter fight over who leads the party.

The average age of the current Congressional Dem leadership is 72, the Repubs is 49

Not very broad appeal. Dems are in no position to say that they represent the people as a whole.

And in 2018 they are facing a near death experience.

They should immediately check in to political rehab but I think they are still in their disease, denial stage.

What will it take to rouse them from their stupor?

Democrats need to get rid of the Clinton faction of the party. Their influence should be dead. I have no confidence in Chuck Schumer leading the Senate Democrats.

As for marganilization, the Democratic Party has won the U.S. Popular Vote in 6 of the 7 presidential elections. That is not marganilizing. In fact, two consecutive Republican presidential pickup winners—George W. Bush (2000) and Donald Trump (2016)—failed to win the U.S. Popular Vote.

What the Democratic Party needs to do is become a uniformly, ideologically left wing political party with their policies for not just social but also economical. They are too much like the Republicans on national security and with the military industrial complex. Aligning closely on those issues makes the two major parties indistinguishable—and makes it too easily susceptible for losing party majority in both houses of Congress, to the Republican Party, while on the watch of a Democratic Party U.S. president. (Bill Clinton and Barack Obama lost the House in their Year #02. The two previous Republican U.S. presidents—Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush—waited until Year #06; there were unique circumstances with Bush Jr.)




Please please do this democrats. This is like all the nuts in my party who said Romeny lost because he wasn't conservative enough. Please go into the crazy far left wilderness with Corbyn and the Labour Party and give us our suburban rich folks back.

Yes, the Democrats should.

People—not including yourself—have it figured that the Republicans are completely owned by the oligarchs, like the Koch brothers and all their allies.

The Democrats should not be following the Republicans any further with any right-wing policies.

There isn’t any person with today’s Republican Party from whom the Democratic Party should be seeking advice. Whenever any of them try to give advice to the Democrats, like commonly suggesting not to go far left, those Republicans should be dismissed. (This includes you, St. Alphonso.)
I love when Dems bring up "The Koch Brothers". I mean have you heard of a guy named George Soros that gives money to Dems?

Go ahead go far left your party will continue to lose elections. Its like the Republicans who weren't conservative enough from 2008-2016!
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Shadows
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« Reply #56 on: November 27, 2016, 10:54:12 PM »

What will it take to rouse them from their stupor?

They only have some strength along the Left Coast and the NE.

45% of their House of Rep numbers come from 6 states. CA, OR, WA, NY, MA & IL

Any claim to a mythical popular vote is rooted in one state,... CA

They are facing a bitter fight over who leads the party.

The average age of the current Congressional Dem leadership is 72, the Repubs is 49

Not very broad appeal. Dems are in no position to say that they represent the people as a whole.

And in 2018 they are facing a near death experience.

They should immediately check in to political rehab but I think they are still in their disease, denial stage.

What will it take to rouse them from their stupor?

Democrats need to get rid of the Clinton faction of the party. Their influence should be dead. I have no confidence in Chuck Schumer leading the Senate Democrats.

As for marganilization, the Democratic Party has won the U.S. Popular Vote in 6 of the 7 presidential elections. That is not marganilizing. In fact, two consecutive Republican presidential pickup winners—George W. Bush (2000) and Donald Trump (2016)—failed to win the U.S. Popular Vote.

What the Democratic Party needs to do is become a uniformly, ideologically left wing political party with their policies for not just social but also economical. They are too much like the Republicans on national security and with the military industrial complex. Aligning closely on those issues makes the two major parties indistinguishable—and makes it too easily susceptible for losing party majority in both houses of Congress, to the Republican Party, while on the watch of a Democratic Party U.S. president. (Bill Clinton and Barack Obama lost the House in their Year #02. The two previous Republican U.S. presidents—Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush—waited until Year #06; there were unique circumstances with Bush Jr.)




Please please do this democrats. This is like all the nuts in my party who said Romeny lost because he wasn't conservative enough. Please go into the crazy far left wilderness with Corbyn and the Labour Party and give us our suburban rich folks back.

Yes, the Democrats should.

People—not including yourself—have it figured that the Republicans are completely owned by the oligarchs, like the Koch brothers and all their allies.

The Democrats should not be following the Republicans any further with any right-wing policies.

There isn’t any person with today’s Republican Party from whom the Democratic Party should be seeking advice. Whenever any of them try to give advice to the Democrats, like commonly suggesting not to go far left, those Republicans should be dismissed. (This includes you, St. Alphonso.)
I love when Dems bring up "The Koch Brothers". I mean have you heard of a guy named George Soros that gives money to Dems?

Go ahead go far left your party will continue to lose elections. Its like the Republicans who weren't conservative enough from 2008-2016!

It is an insanely stupid thing to say about progressives losing election when that has been proven wrong - Shows your level of intellect.

The fact that a radical extremist like Trump wins who promises to ban religions & kill innocent people & steal oil vs a complete centrist moderate like Clinton shows how stupid this theory is.

Also the idea of far left is actually mainstream & centrist in every major party in the world. The current Republican party doesn't even fit in any left-right divide. It is an extremist political organization which is completely cut off from reality. Everyone in the world laughs at the stupidity of people who deny climate change.

I mean you radical Religious extremists like Ted Cruz winning elections & you have this idea that being progressive like every major country is unelectable. Who came up with this dumb idea?
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #57 on: November 28, 2016, 03:09:52 AM »

Just saying, after the 2008 Elections, the GOP was deemed as a regional party also..

People are overthinking results.

Nope, the Dems are trending away from winning the EC. Their ratio of number of votes to EC votes gets worse and worse...Repubs get better and better.

I don't know if that's true or not, but I do know that Dems have a massive geographical problem. Couldn't find a 2016 map, but here's 2012's map by counties where Obama won by 4 points nationally:


As you can see, dems won big in the coastal areas and cities, and pretty much nowhere else. Because they have so many of their voters confined to small regional areas, it does seem plausible that it would put them at a distinct electoral disadvantage. For example, Hillary won the pop vote because she banked a ridiculous amount of votes in CA (3.5 million more than Trump). But of course, the EV doesn't care if you win a state by one vote or ten million. All of the EV's go to the victor regardless.

So essentially, that's 3.5 million votes wasted that could have gone to more crucial areas of the country.

In contrast, GOP votes are spread out far more efficiently (especially Trump's).


Most people live in the blue area.  Republicans are real thick headed aren't they/
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Pennsylvania Deplorable
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« Reply #58 on: November 28, 2016, 02:30:25 PM »

I seem to recall the GOP autopsy of 2012 telling them to support open borders and amnesty. Int he end, a candidate who did just the opposite won in 2016. The democrats are likely to be a minority in the house for a long time simply because their voters are so packed into cities (even without gerrymandering). Democrats will likely have a bad year in 2018 for Senate races because they have a lot of incumbents in red or purple states, but they'll make gains in 2020 when the GOP will have to hold onto gains from 2014. This is hardly the end of the democrats, though they are at a risk of losing their old working class white base forever if they keep bashing them rather than offering them something to vote for.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #59 on: November 28, 2016, 02:59:29 PM »

It's become a tradition to say that the party that loses is doomed.

2004: The Democrats are done for! They're just a coastal party now!

2008: The Republicans are done for! They're just a Southern party now!

2010: Obama is done for in 2012!

2012: The Republicans are done for! They're just a Southern party now!

2016: The Democrats are done for! They're just a coastal party now!

lol.. that seems to be the case every single election. I may sig this.
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iratemoderate
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« Reply #60 on: November 28, 2016, 03:10:13 PM »

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Considering your disdain for "radical [r]eligious extremists" such as Ted Cruz (I share your sentiments), I cannot see why you would object to Trump's proposal to restrict Islamic immigration. Nobody has a right to immigrate anywhere; immigration is privilege, and I cannot see why we should not prioritize immigrants from compatible cultures while reducing immigration from "problem countries" like Somalia, Afghanistan, Yemen, and the like.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #61 on: November 28, 2016, 03:26:31 PM »

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Considering your disdain for "radical [r]eligious extremists" such as Ted Cruz (I share your sentiments), I cannot see why you would object to Trump's proposal to restrict Islamic immigration. Nobody has a right to immigrate anywhere; immigration is privilege, and I cannot see why we should not prioritize immigrants from compatible cultures while reducing immigration from "problem countries" like Somalia, Afghanistan, Yemen, and the like.
this is as moronic an argument now as it was 150 years ago about the irish
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iratemoderate
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« Reply #62 on: November 28, 2016, 03:31:09 PM »

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Considering your disdain for "radical [r]eligious extremists" such as Ted Cruz (I share your sentiments), I cannot see why you would object to Trump's proposal to restrict Islamic immigration. Nobody has a right to immigrate anywhere; immigration is privilege, and I cannot see why we should not prioritize immigrants from compatible cultures while reducing immigration from "problem countries" like Somalia, Afghanistan, Yemen, and the like.
this is as moronic an argument now as it was 150 years ago about the irish

Until the regressive left is willing to consider uncomfortable truths, the left will just keep losing. Have fun with your false equivalencies and electoral defeats.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #63 on: November 28, 2016, 03:35:59 PM »

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Considering your disdain for "radical [r]eligious extremists" such as Ted Cruz (I share your sentiments), I cannot see why you would object to Trump's proposal to restrict Islamic immigration. Nobody has a right to immigrate anywhere; immigration is privilege, and I cannot see why we should not prioritize immigrants from compatible cultures while reducing immigration from "problem countries" like Somalia, Afghanistan, Yemen, and the like.
this is as moronic an argument now as it was 150 years ago about the irish

Until the regressive left is willing to consider uncomfortable truths, the left will just keep losing. Have fun with your false equivalencies and electoral defeats.
literally name one difference
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iratemoderate
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« Reply #64 on: November 28, 2016, 04:22:25 PM »

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First of all, in the aggregate, Ireland was hardly sending its best and brightest to the States (as crime statistics bear out), so in some ways, the comparison is not quite fair. (I am of Irish heritage, for the record.) As for other groups, the assimilation of the Irish was a rough and messy process. There was indeed unjust discrimination from the Anglo-Protestant majority, but there was also a lot of insularity (perhaps reinforced by unjust discrimination) and unwillingness to integrate for a while. But regardless, the Irish still largely spoke English and were part of a common Western cultural tradition that made for easier assimilation in the long run. A significant portion of their descendants converted to Protestantism or intermarried with Protestants and had fully "American" children.

It would be one thing if we were taking in Lebanese Maronites, but parochial Sunnis from Yemen or Somalia are a whole different ballgame. To think that the same process with the Irish and others can be replicated, at least in the next half-century, for the most backward elements of the most culturally backward and poor parts of the earth is laughable.1 I am all for enlightened members of those groups to immigrate here, and in fact, I would be happy to exchange some of our worst elements for the best of theirs. Unfortunately, the government is both unable and unwilling to micro-target immigrants to that extent, so it becomes necessary to impose collective restrictions.

It would not matter so much if the Somalis and Yemenis coming here were, let's say, Buddhist, but they instead follow a religion that is fundamentally at odds with Enlightenment values and that reinforces their own stone-age cultural mores. Too many people think that Islam can be easily turned into a kind of cafeteria Catholicism and readily adapted to the West. The fact is, this just is not the case. Individual exceptions (i.e., nonobservant Muslims) do not negate the rule or alter the religion. This, of course, can change, but why should my country have to be a petri dish for this process? It would be very magnanimous of us to do it, but you cannot expect people to put up with it. Immigration should be a policy used to benefit the country, not the immigrant. Thanks to the reckless actions of the Empress of Europe and those of greedy, near-sighted West German politicians of the 1960s and '70s acting under American pressure, your country may yet have the honor of proving me wrong. I doubt though that either one of us will live to see it.

1. All people are inherently equal (race is a fiction), but not all cultures are equal, and we should not be ashamed to say it or to adjust our immigration laws accordingly.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #65 on: November 28, 2016, 05:10:44 PM »

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First of all, in the aggregate, Ireland was hardly sending its best and brightest to the States (as crime statistics bear out), so in some ways, the comparison is not quite fair. (I am of Irish heritage, for the record.) As for other groups, the assimilation of the Irish was a rough and messy process. There was indeed unjust discrimination from the Anglo-Protestant majority, but there was also a lot of insularity (perhaps reinforced by unjust discrimination) and unwillingness to integrate for a while. But regardless, the Irish still largely spoke English and were part of a common Western cultural tradition that made for easier assimilation in the long run.

this is an argument from hindsight. contemporary perception certainly wasn't so confident about a "common western cultural tradition"

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this is the same with muslims, as a matter of fact

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again, the same argument was made about the irish. and the chinese, and viëtnam refugees, and so on, and so on.

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i am not sure i want to know your definition of "enlightenment".

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have you actually looked into the american immigration/asylum-seeking/etc process? genuine question.

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the facts are, in fact, quite the opposite of what you're suggesting. an obvious example is the fact that american muslims are more tolerant of lgbt+ people than evangelicals

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because that's literally what built america?

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oh dear
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #66 on: November 28, 2016, 05:57:19 PM »

What will it take to rouse them from their stupor?

They only have some strength along the Left Coast and the NE.

45% of their House of Rep numbers come from 6 states. CA, OR, WA, NY, MA & IL

Any claim to a mythical popular vote is rooted in one state,... CA

They are facing a bitter fight over who leads the party.

The average age of the current Congressional Dem leadership is 72, the Repubs is 49

Not very broad appeal. Dems are in no position to say that they represent the people as a whole.

And in 2018 they are facing a near death experience.

They should immediately check in to political rehab but I think they are still in their disease, denial stage.

What will it take to rouse them from their stupor?

Democrats need to get rid of the Clinton faction of the party. Their influence should be dead. I have no confidence in Chuck Schumer leading the Senate Democrats.

As for marganilization, the Democratic Party has won the U.S. Popular Vote in 6 of the 7 presidential elections. That is not marganilizing. In fact, two consecutive Republican presidential pickup winners—George W. Bush (2000) and Donald Trump (2016)—failed to win the U.S. Popular Vote.

What the Democratic Party needs to do is become a uniformly, ideologically left wing political party with their policies for not just social but also economical. They are too much like the Republicans on national security and with the military industrial complex. Aligning closely on those issues makes the two major parties indistinguishable—and makes it too easily susceptible for losing party majority in both houses of Congress, to the Republican Party, while on the watch of a Democratic Party U.S. president. (Bill Clinton and Barack Obama lost the House in their Year #02. The two previous Republican U.S. presidents—Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush—waited until Year #06; there were unique circumstances with Bush Jr.)




Please please do this democrats. This is like all the nuts in my party who said Romeny lost because he wasn't conservative enough. Please go into the crazy far left wilderness with Corbyn and the Labour Party and give us our suburban rich folks back.

I'm willing to bet a lot of money that if you somehow took an exit polls of "suburban rich folks," they voted Republican, LOL.  Republican House candidates (and Trump, for God's sake) won the suburban vote, and I will go ahead and guess that rich suburbanites voted Republican at a higher clip than poor suburbanites (seeing as rich VOTERS voted more Republican than poor voters, this only makes sense, especially given that most of the GOP's "poorer" voters are likely from its rural strongholds).
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hopper
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« Reply #67 on: November 29, 2016, 01:59:31 PM »

What will it take to rouse them from their stupor?

They only have some strength along the Left Coast and the NE.

45% of their House of Rep numbers come from 6 states. CA, OR, WA, NY, MA & IL

Any claim to a mythical popular vote is rooted in one state,... CA

They are facing a bitter fight over who leads the party.

The average age of the current Congressional Dem leadership is 72, the Repubs is 49

Not very broad appeal. Dems are in no position to say that they represent the people as a whole.

And in 2018 they are facing a near death experience.

They should immediately check in to political rehab but I think they are still in their disease, denial stage.

What will it take to rouse them from their stupor?

Democrats need to get rid of the Clinton faction of the party. Their influence should be dead. I have no confidence in Chuck Schumer leading the Senate Democrats.

As for marganilization, the Democratic Party has won the U.S. Popular Vote in 6 of the 7 presidential elections. That is not marganilizing. In fact, two consecutive Republican presidential pickup winners—George W. Bush (2000) and Donald Trump (2016)—failed to win the U.S. Popular Vote.

What the Democratic Party needs to do is become a uniformly, ideologically left wing political party with their policies for not just social but also economical. They are too much like the Republicans on national security and with the military industrial complex. Aligning closely on those issues makes the two major parties indistinguishable—and makes it too easily susceptible for losing party majority in both houses of Congress, to the Republican Party, while on the watch of a Democratic Party U.S. president. (Bill Clinton and Barack Obama lost the House in their Year #02. The two previous Republican U.S. presidents—Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush—waited until Year #06; there were unique circumstances with Bush Jr.)




Please please do this democrats. This is like all the nuts in my party who said Romeny lost because he wasn't conservative enough. Please go into the crazy far left wilderness with Corbyn and the Labour Party and give us our suburban rich folks back.

Yes, the Democrats should.

People—not including yourself—have it figured that the Republicans are completely owned by the oligarchs, like the Koch brothers and all their allies.

The Democrats should not be following the Republicans any further with any right-wing policies.

There isn’t any person with today’s Republican Party from whom the Democratic Party should be seeking advice. Whenever any of them try to give advice to the Democrats, like commonly suggesting not to go far left, those Republicans should be dismissed. (This includes you, St. Alphonso.)
I love when Dems bring up "The Koch Brothers". I mean have you heard of a guy named George Soros that gives money to Dems?

Go ahead go far left your party will continue to lose elections. Its like the Republicans who weren't conservative enough from 2008-2016!

It is an insanely stupid thing to say about progressives losing election when that has been proven wrong - Shows your level of intellect.

The fact that a radical extremist like Trump wins who promises to ban religions & kill innocent people & steal oil vs a complete centrist moderate like Clinton shows how stupid this theory is.

Also the idea of far left is actually mainstream & centrist in every major party in the world. The current Republican party doesn't even fit in any left-right divide. It is an extremist political organization which is completely cut off from reality. Everyone in the world laughs at the stupidity of people who deny climate change.

I mean you radical Religious extremists like Ted Cruz winning elections & you have this idea that being progressive like every major country is unelectable. Who came up with this dumb idea?
Trump is not a radical extremist I think he will be more in the Eisenhower/Nixon mold kind of a Republican.

Um no Republicans aren't extremists. Go check out DW-Dominate Scaling. The Republicans are nearly as conservative as the Democrats are liberal. Yes the Dems are a little more moderate than Republicans.

Yes Hillary would have governed as a Centrist because she would have had to work with a Republican Congress.

I am not a Ted Cruz fan by the way. Not even Establishment Republicans like him in the US Senate.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #68 on: November 29, 2016, 02:16:56 PM »

"trump is not a radical extremist"

are you real
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« Reply #69 on: November 29, 2016, 02:41:59 PM »

As I've been saying, we can see the Dems having an advantage on presidential level, but struggling mighty at the state/local levels.
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« Reply #70 on: November 29, 2016, 08:02:55 PM »
« Edited: November 29, 2016, 08:06:28 PM by Cuckslayer »

As I've been saying, we can see the Dems having an advantage on presidential level, but struggling mighty at the state/local levels.

Democrats don't have a presidential advantage. Perhaps with the popular vote, but not the electoral vote.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #71 on: November 29, 2016, 10:07:11 PM »

The Democratic Party is sick, but it's an institution that has been through far worse illnesses: the 1850s-70s, the 1890s-1900s, especially the 1920s...

It'll bounce back.
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Cuckslayer
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« Reply #72 on: November 30, 2016, 12:18:03 AM »

The Democratic Party is sick, but it's an institution that has been through far worse illnesses: the 1850s-70s, the 1890s-1900s, especially the 1920s...

It'll bounce back.

I agree with this. Democrats are now completely out of power. It sucks, but now they can test out new strategies with voters without repercussion. I believe the Democrats will come back. Although they might not get a stranglehold of the House until the 2030's. Either way, Dems just need a good uncuckening and they'll be back in business. Trump was a democrat at one point after all.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #73 on: November 30, 2016, 03:26:56 PM »


Stop.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #74 on: November 30, 2016, 03:33:40 PM »

something something lol r u triggered this isn't a safe space something something
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