Dems in Trump CD's; Reps in Clinton CD's

[nclib]

Updating...

Dems in Trump CD's

Tom O'Halleran, AZ-1
Dave Loebsack, IA-2
Tim Walz, MN-1
Collin Peterson, MN-7
Rick Nolan, MN-8
Jacky Rosen, NV-3
Carol Shea-Porter, NH-1
Josh Gottheimer, NJ-5
Tom Suozzi, NY-3
Matt Cartwright, PA-17
Ron Kind, WI-3

Reps in Clinton CD's

Martha McSally, AZ-2
Jeff Denham, CA-10
David Valadao, CA-21
Steve Knight, CA-25
Ed Royce, CA-39
Mimi Walters, CA-45
Dana Rohrabacher, CA-48
Darrell Issa, CA-49
Mike Coffman, CO-6
Carlos Curbelo, FL-26
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, FL-27
Peter Roskam, IL-6
Kevin Yoder, KS-3
Erik Paulsen, MN-3
John Katko, NY-24
John Culberson, TX-7
Will Hurd, TX-23
Dave Reichert, WA-8
Pete Sessions, TX-32
Barbara Comstock, VA-10

[Gass3268]

How big was the Trump win in Cartwright's seat?  Was it a massive win like the Walz/Nolan/Peterson seats in MN, or was it a bare 1-3% win like most of the others?

Is it confimed that Trump won Cartwright's seat? Eyeballing it, it looks a lot like the Tim Ryan situation.

[Heisenberg]

How big was the Trump win in Cartwright's seat?  Was it a massive win like the Walz/Nolan/Peterson seats in MN, or was it a bare 1-3% win like most of the others?

Is it confimed that Trump won Cartwright's seat? Eyeballing it, it looks a lot like the Tim Ryan situation.

Remember, Cartwright's seat was only D+4, while Tim Ryan's had a double digit D+ PVI. Trump won Schuylkill County, which is entirely in the district, as well as Carbon County, and made inroads in the Scranton area.

[Young Conservative]

How big was the Trump win in Cartwright's seat?  Was it a massive win like the Walz/Nolan/Peterson seats in MN, or was it a bare 1-3% win like most of the others?

Is it confimed that Trump won Cartwright's seat? Eyeballing it, it looks a lot like the Tim Ryan situation.

Remember, Cartwright's seat was only D+4, while Tim Ryan's had a double digit D+ PVI. Trump won Schuylkill County, which is entirely in the district, as well as Carbon County, and made inroads in the Scranton area.

Trump ended losing Ryan's by about 7. It's PVI was +23

[Mr.Phips]

How big was the Trump win in Cartwright's seat?  Was it a massive win like the Walz/Nolan/Peterson seats in MN, or was it a bare 1-3% win like most of the others?

Is it confimed that Trump won Cartwright's seat? Eyeballing it, it looks a lot like the Tim Ryan situation.

Remember, Cartwright's seat was only D+4, while Tim Ryan's had a double digit D+ PVI. Trump won Schuylkill County, which is entirely in the district, as well as Carbon County, and made inroads in the Scranton area.

My estimates show Trump up 52%-44% in Cartwright's district.  That margin almost by itself shows why Clinton lost the state.

[Mr.Phips]

How big was the Trump win in Cartwright's seat?  Was it a massive win like the Walz/Nolan/Peterson seats in MN, or was it a bare 1-3% win like most of the others?

Is it confimed that Trump won Cartwright's seat? Eyeballing it, it looks a lot like the Tim Ryan situation.

Remember, Cartwright's seat was only D+4, while Tim Ryan's had a double digit D+ PVI. Trump won Schuylkill County, which is entirely in the district, as well as Carbon County, and made inroads in the Scranton area.

My estimates show Trump up 52%-44% in Cartwright's district.  That margin almost by itself shows why Clinton lost the state.

OK, so count him as gone in 2020 if Trump wins again.  Still, the total Trump Dem exposure is impressively limited.  And if he loses in 2020, the IA-02's and WI-03's of the world could still flip back.

I wouldn't say that.  If that's the case, Illeana Ros-Lehtinen gone in 2020?

[nclib]

How big was the Trump win in Cartwright's seat?  Was it a massive win like the Walz/Nolan/Peterson seats in MN, or was it a bare 1-3% win like most of the others?

Is it confimed that Trump won Cartwright's seat? Eyeballing it, it looks a lot like the Tim Ryan situation.

Remember, Cartwright's seat was only D+4, while Tim Ryan's had a double digit D+ PVI. Trump won Schuylkill County, which is entirely in the district, as well as Carbon County, and made inroads in the Scranton area.

I claimed PA-17 for Trump from reports on this thread and the Election by CD thread (and DKE in some cases). I don't know if PA-17 was confirmed, but what Heisenberg and others said makes sense.

[publicunofficial]

If I were one of those Republicans in California I'd be pissing myself now.  It's always bad to be in the party of a newly elected President during midterms but Trump + California might be the perfect storm for a Republican bloodbath there.

Problem is Hispanic turnout tanking in midterms. The Central Valley seats, in particular, seem to jump 6-7 points to the right every mid-term.

[Gass3268]

People are tired of the stagnating wages, excessive executive pay and cost of college even in the richest districts. People making 100-200K a year are tired of this garbage already as well. As long as the Dems stick with progressivism and not full-blown communism it will be okay. No 90% tax rates but they can safely advocate for higher rates.

Bullock would be fine for 2020, he's pro choice and could be someone with a Bernie like message. With Trump in office, the professionals have nowhere else to go. He would be a good candidate for the long lost 400 electoral vote landslide. A lot of younger Dems don't mind this type of Democratic Party, people are falsely assuming the suburban gains for Hillary are incompatible with winning more working class whites.

Bullock is the one who might work nationally for an Obama-Trump WWC+Romney-Hillary suburbs unity coalition.  I agree with you there.

Looking through Bullock's reelection website, I could get on board with him in 2020.

[Sbane]

If I were one of those Republicans in California I'd be pissing myself now.  It's always bad to be in the party of a newly elected President during midterms but Trump + California might be the perfect storm for a Republican bloodbath there.

Problem is Hispanic turnout tanking in midterms. The Central Valley seats, in particular, seem to jump 6-7 points to the right every mid-term.

Also students and young people in general. For example, Mimi Walters district in OC contains UC Irvine, a very large university. Turnout will likely be down there in 2018 and the Democrat needs a nice margin there if they have any hope of defeating Walters. Also, Orange County is exactly the type of place that votes for Democrat for President or Governor vs down ballot. Besides Darrell Issa, I am not that optimistic about any of the other OC Republicans being defeated anytime soon. Perhaps in 2020 if Trump is defeated with a healthy margin.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

For now, I see no problem with a Bullock Presidency. Pro-Coal, Pro-Gun, clearly values balancing the budget, runs a state with high wage growth and unemployment under the national average, doesn't ignore veterans and rural voters. All of that more than cancels out him being Pro-Choice.

[smoltchanov]

Bullock will not be president. He will run for Senate in 2020.

The Dems who still won in very working class areas after 2012 (Bullock, Justice, Petersen, Bel Edwards) are generally socially conservative to a degree that will make much of the Dem base uncomfortable.

Nah, neither Bullock nor Justice are socially conservative - far from it, actually. They won because of their economic platform. Bullock in particular had the incumbency advantage and is relatively popular in the state - he would have lost to Gianforte had this been an open-seat race, though (unlike Justice, who is basically a Democratic version of Trump).

If Justice is a Democratic version of Trump, and he is NOT socially conservative that means that Trump is not a socially conservative too. Yes??? Then - why liberals are so frightened?

[smoltchanov]

Justice is fairly liberal (he even supported Obama), but he ran on a populist platform, which plays well in a state like West Virginia.

Well, no doubts about second part of this statement, but some - about first. Social liberals are not especially popular in West Virginia (while populists - are)

[Nym90]

Any chance Trump won Peter Defazio's district, Oregon-4?

[Young Conservative]

Any chance Trump won Peter Defazio's district, Oregon-4?

There's a slight chance; I'm hearing it was clinton by less than 600 votes, which means it's basically tied.

[hopper]

The 4 Orange County, California seats (39, 45, 48, and 49) need to be the top priority for the DCCC.

No point focusing on those of you lose all your modwestrn seats.

What else is there to lose?   The three rural Minnesota seats and maybe WI-3?   Beyond that the GOP is pretty much maxed out there.

The final democratic Iowa seat, potential for two seats in michigan, a seat in PA, seats in Wisconsin, and seats in Minnesota. If you lose the seats there, the gains are wiped out.

In Michigan?  What seats?  Every seat in that state that Dems hold is a Dem vote sink.

In Wisconsin, the only potential seat in any risk is WI-03.  The other two Dem seats are safe Dem until the cows come home (and probably after that too).  

So after 2016, Democrats' plan of attack isn't to win back areas that were always favorable to Democrats but rather try to pick off areas that have always liked Republicans but are now more diverse?

Glad to see they've learned nothing.

Well, most of those states except Wisconsin and Iowa will be losing districts anyway come 2020.   And most of the surrounding districts are just barely Republican.  Probably the national Dem's strategy is just to let the incumbents ride it out until 2020 and then get better maps in place once the seats are removed.

If none of them lost in 2016 then the chances of any of them getting voted out while Trump is in office are pretty much non-existent (as far as we can tell).

I will say that Minnesota is a bit scary.

I realize that this thread is about the House, but the Senate is still important, and unaffected by population changes. Sure, Georgia has a higher population than Wisconsin and Iowa combined, but it still only has two Senators.

Yeah, but the good thing about Senators is they aren't affect by the geography of the states.

In the long run the Demographics of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania very much still favor Democrats.   The Urban areas will just grow to be too much to handle at some point or another.   It's really just Ohio and Iowa that are going the way of Alabama.  

The thing with the House is that the urban concentration of votes put the outer seats at risk, even though the statewide vote might still favor democrats, or at least be competitive,  while the urban-core districts just get more friendly to Dems.

How do the Demographics of Wisconsin, and Michigan favor Dems? True, Pennsylvania Geography and not necessarily Demographics favor Dems because people are moving in and around Philly and basically every county in and around Philly besides Philadelphia County trended Dem this Presidential Election. True about Minnesota too since Hennepin County is the fastest growing County in the State by Migration Numbers I think.

Ohio and Iowa-I don't think Upper Midwest Whites will vote like Deep South Whites anytime soon.

[hopper]

If Trump's job approval ratings match his personal favorables he has zero chance. The Dems will have an open primary with 6-8 candidates or so, without a clear favorite. The competition will be good. Someone like Bullock could be strong in Iowa and New Hampshire for sure. If you combine that with outreach to African Americans, win South Carolina and game over. His background fighting the citizens United decision would be good cred, especially if Trump is 4 years of a mess.

Bullock would be a good candidate for the Dems.

[hopper]

Any chance Trump won Peter Defazio's district, Oregon-4?

I would love for Republicans to take out DeFazio but I don't think its gonna happen. He is a pretty entrenched incumbent since he has been in Congress for a long time.

[smoltchanov]

Any chance Trump won Peter Defazio's district, Oregon-4?

I would love for Republicans to take out DeFazio but I don't think its gonna happen. He is a pretty entrenched incumbent since he has been in Congress for a long time.

Wait until he retires. Before that - no chances (IMHO, as usual)

[Torie]

NY-24 looks like Clinton carried it by less than 1,000 votes as well.

[nclib]

WI-3 (Kind) has been confirmed.

[nclib]

Final:

Dems in Trump CD's

Tom O'Halleran, AZ-1
Cheri Bustos, IL-17
Dave Loebsack, IA-2
Tim Walz, MN-1
Collin Peterson, MN-7
Rick Nolan, MN-8
Jacky Rosen, NV-3
Carol Shea-Porter, NH-1
Josh Gottheimer, NJ-5
Sean Patrick Maloney, NY-18
Matt Cartwright, PA-17
Ron Kind, WI-3

Reps in Clinton CD's

Martha McSally, AZ-2
Jeff Denham, CA-10
David Valadao, CA-21
Steve Knight, CA-25
Ed Royce, CA-39
Mimi Walters, CA-45
Dana Rohrabacher, CA-48
Darrell Issa, CA-49
Mike Coffman, CO-6
Carlos Curbelo, FL-26
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, FL-27
Peter Roskam, IL-6
Kevin Yoder, KS-3
Erik Paulsen, MN-3
Leonard Lance, NJ-7
John Katko, NY-24
Ryan Costello, PA-6
Pat Meehan, PA-7
John Culberson, TX-7
Will Hurd, TX-23
Pete Sessions, TX-32
Barbara Comstock, VA-10
Dave Reichert, WA-8

While the second list is longer, it is interesting how the first list contains 4 non-incumbents (O'Halleran, Rosen, Shea-Porter, and Gottheimer, though Shea-Porter had previously served), and the second list contains none.

[hopper]

Final:

Dems in Trump CD's

Tom O'Halleran, AZ-1
Cheri Bustos, IL-17
Dave Loebsack, IA-2
Tim Walz, MN-1
Collin Peterson, MN-7
Rick Nolan, MN-8
Jacky Rosen, NV-3
Carol Shea-Porter, NH-1
Josh Gottheimer, NJ-5
Sean Patrick Maloney, NY-18
Matt Cartwright, PA-17
Ron Kind, WI-3

Reps in Clinton CD's

Martha McSally, AZ-2
Jeff Denham, CA-10
David Valadao, CA-21
Steve Knight, CA-25
Ed Royce, CA-39
Mimi Walters, CA-45
Dana Rohrabacher, CA-48
Darrell Issa, CA-49
Mike Coffman, CO-6
Carlos Curbelo, FL-26
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, FL-27
Peter Roskam, IL-6
Kevin Yoder, KS-3
Erik Paulsen, MN-3
Leonard Lance, NJ-7
John Katko, NY-24
Ryan Costello, PA-6
Pat Meehan, PA-7
John Culberson, TX-7
Will Hurd, TX-23
Pete Sessions, TX-32
Barbara Comstock, VA-10
Dave Reichert, WA-8

While the second list is longer, it is interesting how the first list contains 4 non-incumbents (O'Halleran, Rosen, Shea-Porter, and Gottheimer, though Shea-Porter had previously served), and the second list contains none.

I'm surprised Hillary carried Yoder's district(KS-03) and Rohrabacher's District(CA-48.)

California is getting like Massachusetts, Vermont, or Rhode Island now in that the state getting to be really Democrat heavy.

[smoltchanov]

It already is really Democrat heavy. To win the House, Democrats likely need 45+ seats out of California, and a President Trump should help them there. California, like Massachusetts, is a good example of Democrats spreading themselves out, or "de-packing", unlike their tendency to self pack in major cities in other states.

In the long run, Democrats should have a natural advantage in the House, as I could see them almost monopolizing the California delegation (all but maybe 3-4 seats), gaining lots of ground in Texas (Republicans seem to be on the receiving end of a serious self-packing problem there in the long run; just look at how lopsided the Republican margins in the rurals are compared to how even the Democrats seem to be spread across the metros), and retaining the edge in liberal havens like New England, growing areas of the New South (where New VRA districts are likely to be created at some point in NC and GA), and in the metro areas of other states which guarantees them a few random seats (StL, KC, Memphis, etc). On the other hand, unless Democrats figure out their WWC problem, they could be in for a world of hurt in the Senate in the long run, unless they hold the Hillary states and their gains in the New South come quicker than anticipated.

+1. Very good analysis

[Figueira]

If the Democrats can gain every Clinton/Republican CD in 2018 while defending all incumbents, that's only one seat away from a majority. Of course, that's easier said than done, since a lot of those incumbents are really strong, and a lot of those Clinton voters in those districts didn't really have a problem with the Republican Party as a whole (although that might change depending on what Congress does in the next two years). But I assume there are a bunch of narrow Trump/Republican CDs that can be flipped as well if 2018 is a more Democratic year than 2016. So, while the Republicans are favored to keep the House, they don't have it locked down.